NFL Schedule Release: Key Spot Bets for the 2024 NFL Season

The 2024 NFL schedule is here and we can already plan ahead. Several situational — aka "spot" — bets are apparent after digging through the schedule and its early lines. Let's see who gets screwed over by the sked and who benefits.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
May 19, 2024 • 14:36 ET • 4 min read
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The schedule release has football bettors sizing up the early NFL odds, and we’re not just talking about Week 1.

With some sportsbooks setting spreads and totals for every game of the season, you can start to single out any situational spots that may give us an advantage.

I’m a big fan of situational handicapping — AKA spot bets — and list the schedule quirks that you’ll want to dog-ear for the coming 2024 NFL season.

Key Spot Bets for 2024 NFL Schedule

Week 4: Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-6, 42.5)

The Denver Broncos don’t get to slowly dip their toes into the 2024 slate. They’re getting thrown into the deep end like an emotionally-dead father teaching his child to swim. And Week 4 quickly presents a “sink or swim” spot for Sean Payton’s squad.

Denver comes to East Rutherford for a second 1 p.m. ET kickoff after playing the early slot in Tampa Bay the week before. This will be the Broncos’ second straight East Coast road stop and their third road game in the first four weeks after opening 2024 at Seattle.

Just a reminder, Denver’s QB depth chart reads Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham, and Zack Wilson. New York Jets -6 won’t be there in Week 4.

Week 5: New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 44.5)

Taking on the Kansas City Chiefs on the road is tough enough, but the New Orleans Saints' trip to Arrowhead in Week 5 is also the second of back-to-back away games and the third road tilt in four weeks.

That rough patch starts at Dallas in Week 2, returns to NOLA where Philadelphia awaits, and heads to Atlanta on Sept. 29, before ending up on Monday Night Football at KC in Week 5. Jeez, thanks for the extra day off schedule makers.

Week 6: Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 45.5)

The Cleveland Browns will long for the shores of Lake Erie by the time Week 6 rolls around. This venture to the City of Brotherly Love will be Cleveland's third straight road game (and fourth roadie in five weeks), taking on a very physical Philadelphia Eagles attack.

The Browns go to Las Vegas in Week 4, then travel back to play at Washington in Week 5, before heading to the Linc for a Sunday 1 p.m. ET kickoff in mid-October. To make matters worse, the Eagles will have two weeks to prep with a bye in Week 5.

Week 6: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-1.5, 47.5)

The Buffalo Bills have a monster Monday matchup with Gang Green in Week 6. If we recall Week 1 of 2023, Buffalo faced New York in Week 1, with Aaron Rodgers going down with an Achilles tear before you could finish your first beer.

This happens to be Buffalo’s third straight road game in a stretch that features Baltimore in Week 4 and Houston in Week 5 before this AFC East rivalry. This will be the Bills’ fourth away game in five weeks, dating back to a Week 2 stop in South Beach to play Miami. As for the Jets, they’ll be coming off a puddle-jump in the UK to play Minnesota in Week 5.

Week 7: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots (+6.5, 42.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars head to London for a pair of games in October, with this matchup against the New England Patriots being the second UK outing. While Jacksonville has become accustomed to these international affairs, the team will have been home only once in almost a month (vs. Indianapolis in Week 5).

The Jags play back-to-back road games at Buffalo and Houston before that lone stop in Duval County, then fly to the UK for the first London game versus Chicago in Week 6. Not only is all that travel taxing, but routines — on and off the field — are impossible to maintain.

Big picture, Jacksonville has two home games in the first seven weeks of the 2024 schedule and will play inside EverBank Stadium a mere four times before a Week 12 bye. And Shad Khan wants $1.4 billion in renovations?

Week 8: New York Jets at New England Patriots (+4.5, 41.5)

The Jets have a trying stretch of games between Week 5 and Week 8 — and that’s before taking on Houston in a Thursday nighter on Halloween in Week 9. New York begins this journey on the other side of the Atlantic, where it faces Minnesota in London for a 9:30 a.m. ET wake-up call. Most teams playing overseas get a complementary bye the following week, but not New York.

The Jets are in MetLife to match up with rival Buffalo on Monday Night Football in Week 6, leaving a short week for a trip to Pittsburgh on Oct. 20. Gang Green then plays its second straight road game and third travel tilt in four weeks in Foxborough in Week 8. Toss in the look-ahead spot to the Texas the following Thursday, and there could be value with the divisional home dog.

Week 9: Houston Texans at New York Jets (-3, 45)

And speaking of that Week 9 Thursday Night Football game, East Rutherford could be a house of horrors for the Houston Texans on Halloween. Alliteration aside, this is a bad spot for the Texans. They play four games in 18 days with three away from home.

Houston has back-to-back roadies at New England and Green Bay in Weeks 6 and 7 before coming home for an important AFC South showdown with Indianapolis on October 27. Four days later, the Texans take the road to play in East Rutherford in front of what will be a well-oiled primetime crowd on Halloween.

Week 9: Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 46.5)

Week 9 is kind of a dick. Just ask the Indianapolis Colts.

Indianapolis has the “club sandwich” of situational spots when it goes to Minnesota on Nov. 3. First, Indy will be playing the second of back-to-back road games and its fourth roadie in five weeks. The Colts are at Jacksonville and Tennessee in Weeks 5 and 6 before hosting Miami in Week 7.

Second, this meeting in Minny is a letdown spot after a huge AFC South showdown at Houston in Week 8. And third, there’s a nice thick layer of “look-ahead” to this sandwich, with the Colts hosting Buffalo in Week 10. The Vikings also get a mini bye to prep/rest after playing on Thursday in Week 8.

Week 10: Detroit Lions at Houston Texans (-1, 48.5)

The Detroit Lions have an early bye in Week 5 before the schedule makers unleash hell. It starts with back-to-back road stops in Dallas and Minnesota in mid-October. Detroit hosts Tennessee in Week 8 before hitting the highway for another road double-dip, going to Green Bay and then Houston in Week 10.

This is a non-conference Sunday Night Football showcase between two up-and-coming contenders. Early odds have Detroit as a slim road underdog (22-10 ATS as pups under Dan Campbell), due to the Texans enjoying a mini-bye after visiting the Jets for Thursday Night Football in Week 9.

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Week 10: New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 43)

The No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft takes on the No. 3 selection when the Patriots blow into the Windy City on Nov. 10. New England will technically be playing its third away game in four weeks thanks to being selected for the league’s international program.

The Pats play Jacksonville in London in Week 7 and don’t get the usual bye, hosting the Jets the following Sunday. From there, new head coach Jerod Mayo takes his team to Tennessee in Week 9 before storming Solider Field in Week 10. They’ll find a football-starved Chicago Bears fanbase waiting for them, as this will be the Bears’ first home game in more than a month.

Week 11: Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (+3, 44.5)

The Broncos are a disgusting 13-20-1 ATS the past two seasons. So, if I’m considering betting on Denver, you know the spot has to be good. Week 11 gives us such a spot, with the Falcons coming all the way up the mountain for a 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff.

The Atlanta Falcons are playing back-to-back road games and three road stops in four weeks, with that crunch exaggerated by Denver's thin air. Blessed by the schedule gods, the Falcons only travel as far as New Orleans in the first 10 weeks of action before rolling into the Rockies.

There could also be a look-ahead factor at play if things go sour in the first season under coach Raheem Morris and QB Kirk Cousins. Week 12 is a bye week, so keep an eye on Atlanta’s locker room situation in the first couple of months.

Week 12: Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (+7, 45.5)

Not even the Super Bowl champs are immune to the dreaded spot bet. The Chiefs have a November to remember, with the schedule forcing them to play five games in 25 days. That includes this “first versus worst” matchup against the Carolina Panthers, cramming four games into a 20-day window.

Kansas City will be playing its second straight road game in Week 12, laying a ton of points in a potential letdown spot after visiting the rival Bills the week before. Staying focused on the piss-poor Panthers will be tough with Thanksgiving the following week and a short turnaround for a Friday game versus Las Vegas.

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Week 12: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3, 45)

Chicago was gift-wrapped one of the lighter schedules in 2024, and we’ve already featured those edges in the spot bets above. The Bears get another “kiss from a rose” for this NFC North grudge match with the Vikes, who have won and covered in four straight trips to Chitown.

Chicago will be playing its third straight home game when Minnesota comes to town, allowing the Bears to get into a solid routine while sleeping in their own beds. That’s not the case for the Vikings, who will be trudging out for their third straight road game in Week 12. Minnesota is at Jacksonville and Tennessee in Weeks 10 and 11.

Week 13: Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 46.5)

The Eagles have a tough opening to 2024, traveling to Brazil in Week 1 and playing three of the first four games away from the Linc. However, this Thanksgiving Weekend trip to face the Baltimore Ravens will be one of the most physical games of the year.

Philadelphia will be playing its second straight road outing, after traveling across the country to face the L.A. Rams in Week 12. It also serves as the Eagles' third away game in four weeks, going back to a Nov. 10 showdown in Dallas and a primetime home date with pesky Washington on Thursday Night Football in Week 11.

That said, the Ravens do have a short week to prep for the Eagles and a potential letdown after the “Harbowl” in L.A. on Monday Night Football in Week 12.

Week 16: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 45.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals will be playing their third game in 10 days when they host the rival Browns on Thursday Night Football in Week 16. Cincinnati has a Monday night road trip to Dallas in Week 14 which leaves a short week to travel to Tennessee in Week 15.

The Bengals pack up and come home for this Battle of Ohio, granted Cleveland doesn’t exactly glide into Week 16. The Browns host Kansas City the game before and run a gauntlet of KC, Cincy, Miami, and Baltimore to close out the calendar. Keep a close eye on everyone’s injury report come Dec. 19.

Week 16: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+6, 42.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers were slapped with the third hardest SOS and the back half is nightmare fuel for the Black & Yellow.

Pittsburgh plays all six AFC North games between Week 11 and Week 18. But the Steelers do catch a break with non-divisional foes Philadelphia and Kansas City (in a Wednesday Xmas Day game) in that stretch. Yikes. The shit really hits the Terrible Towels in Week 16.

The trip to Baltimore comes on a short week, with the game slated for Saturday. It’s the team’s second straight road game, fourth roadie in five weeks, and fifth in seven. The Steelers take on the two most punishing offenses in a row, visiting Philadelphia before limping into M&T Bank Stadium on short rest.

Week 16: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 46.5)

Week 16 is going to make or break some teams in the home stretch. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be one of them, traveling to Arlington to play the Dallas Cowboys. This will be Tampa’s second straight road game after a coast-to-coast trek to Los Angeles to challenge the Chargers in Week 15.

This game in Dallas is also the Bucs’ fourth road game in five weeks, a stretch that has Tampa Bay coming off a Week 11 bye with winnable road games at the Giants and Panthers. It hosts Las Vegas for its first home game in almost a month in Week 14 before going to La-La Land.

Can the Bucs repeat last season’s 8-1 ATS record on the road?

Week 18: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3, 45)

If the AFC East trickles out the way we hope, this regular season finale could be for a playoff spot. The Miami Dolphins, however, enter with a disadvantage. Miami will be playing in its second straight road game and third in four weeks to close out the calendar.

In addition to that schedule spot, the Fins could be fighting the elements as the season wraps up, playing at Cleveland on Sunday night in Week 17 before showing up to a chilly MetLife Stadium on Dec. 29. Visions of last year’s wintery Wild Card loss in Kansas City are dancing through our heads.

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