As the NFL playoffs start the wrap-up of a bruising NFL season, speculation is mounting over the Madden NFL 27 cover star.
The 'Madden Curse' remains the only thing in professional sports more reliable than an early-season collapse by the New York Jets.
This intense interest and public debate are the primary reasons we've pulled data from the Kalshi prediction market for the Madden NFL '27 cover star to find out who leads the race so far.
With the Madden NFL 27 cover acting as the ultimate digital hall of fame, industry analysts believe that EA Sports is looking for a fresh, younger face to lead the franchise into its next era.
Key Takeaways
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as the clear frontrunner, capturing a majority of the market's confidence.
- Running backs are enjoying a rare resurgence in popularity, with Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor nipping at the heels of the elite.
- Defensive stars and perennial NFL MVP odds favorites like Patrick Mahomes are currently languishing in the bargain bin of "unlikely" outcomes.
Madden NFL 27 cover prediction markets
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Madden NFL 27 cover prediction markets analysis
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Seattle Seahawks
JSN holds the highest price in this prediction market due to a cocktail of highlight-reel dominance and a burgeoning status as the league's premier route-runner.
The market sees him as the safe bet for EA Sports—a young, electrifying talent who appeals to the Gen Z demographic without the quarterback fatigue that often plagues cover selection. Following a record-setting year in Seattle, he’s got aura off the charts.
Bijan Robinson | RB | Atlanta Falcons
Despite the NFL's general treatment of running backs as disposable assets, the betting market remains bullish on Robinson's star power.
His dual-threat capability makes him a 'Madden-friendly' player—someone gamers actually enjoy using in the virtual backfield. A 20% implied probability suggests that bettors believe EA might stick with the "RB of the Year" trend established by the previous cover stars, Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey.
Jonathan Taylor | RB | Indianapolis Colts
The Colts running back remains a strong contender for the Madden NFL ‘27 cover, after leading the NFL in touchdowns in 2025.
Taylor is a powerhouse who has maintained high visibility and consistent production. The logic favors this option because EA has a historical soft spot for established workhorses with clean public images, making him one of the most "brand-safe" choices on the board.
Madden NFL 27 cover odds sleeper
Caleb Williams | QB | Chicago Bears
With long odds, this option represents the biggest potential upset.
His appearance on the Madden cover hinges on the 'Face of the Future' narrative; Williams is the kind of polarizing, high-impact talent that would move copies in a way a wide receiver might not. If EA wants to break the internet, putting the Chicago signal-caller on the box is the nuclear option the market would be completely shaken by.
The Madden Curse: is it a real thing?
In one word: maybe.
Of the last 27 athletes to be featured on the front cover of the annual Madden NFL franchise entry: eight had seasons that were similar or surpassed the season before they were selected.
And that list of successful athletes reads like a who’s who of who’s great at football:
- Madden NFL '05 - Ray Lewis
- Madden NFL '10 - Larry Fitzgerald
- Madden NFL '13 - Calvin Johnson
- Madden NFL 25 - Adrian Peterson
- Madden NFL '15 - Richard Sherman
- Madden NFL '16 - Odell Beckham Jr
- Madden NFL '18 - Tom Brady
- Madden NFL '20 - Patrick Mahomes
- Madden NFL '22 - Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes
The rest, including the 2026 cover athlete, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, either experienced a significant statistical drop-off or serious injury that cost them playing time.
That’s a 70.3% hit rate for the Madden Curse.
The Madden Curse may be a misnomer, however. Many players affected by it are actually just regressing to the mean: take Saquon Barkley as an example.
In 2024-25: Barkley broke the single-season combined rushing record on his way to winning a Super Bowl with the Eagles with 2,504 yards at 5.8 yards per carry. He also broke the 2,000 yards mark in the regular season, setting a team record and winning the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award.
In 2025-26: Saquon ran for only 1,140 yards at 4.1 yards per carry.
While that’s a marked drop-off year-on-year: Barkley was still ranked tenth in the league in rushing yards. That’s not disastrous… it just doesn’t meet expectations after a 2,000 yard season.
