The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals get together for an early-week series starting this afternoon.
This series has intrigue, and this pitching matchup between two arms that have overperformed their underlying metrics is no exception. We see the Yankees getting the best of the Royals in this spot.
Read all about it in my Yankees vs Royals predictions and MLB picks for Monday, May 25.
Who will win Yankees vs Royals today: Yankees (-140)
Kansas City Royals arm Michael Wacha is the perfect example of "does nothing great but does mostly everything well." That's typically a good quality for a starter, but it's also why his expected ERA sits over a full run higher than his actual mark, screaming negative regression.
A below-average barrel rate (8.2%) and hard-hit rate (39%) are troubling against the team that ranks first in baseball in both categories.
When these two met in the Bronx in April, two of the three hardest-hit balls by New York Yankees hitters came off Wacha and resulted in unlucky line-outs. Play to -170.
COVERS INTEL: Will Warren's 5.9% walk rate sits in the 86th percentile, which limits free baserunners against a Royals offense that already struggles to manufacture rallies on its own.
Yankees vs Royals Over/Under pick: Under 9 (-110)
This is a touch high.
I haven't been thrilled about backing Warren this year, but his 86th-percentile strikeout rate should play well here against a Royals lineup with limited barrel threats. This means Warren should generate plenty of swing-and-miss.
While I like the Yankees to get after Wacha, the story of the season so far for New York is at play here: There's still a good amount of easy outs at the bottom of the Yankees lineup. I made the total 8.7; this is not a huge edge but playable nonetheless.
- ML/RL bets: 21-19, +1.56 units
- Over/Under bets: 25-15, +12.34 units
Yankees vs Royals odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -145 | Royals +118
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Royals +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Yankees vs Royals trend
The Yankees have won all 10 of their last 10 head-to-head matchups with Kansas City, covering the -1.5 run line in all but two of those meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Royals.
How to watch Yankees vs Royals and game info
| Location | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Monday, May 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (6-1, 3.61 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher | Michael Wacha (4-2, 2.70 ERA) |
Yankees vs Royals latest injuries
Yankees vs Royals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
