My Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction is that the Denver defense will show up in winning fashion as the AFC West top spot is on the line.
The Chiefs are short road favorites over the Broncos ahead of this 4:25 p.m. ET bout at Empower Field at Mile High.
Check out my NFL picks for Nov. 1.
TOP PICK
Chiefs vs Broncos prediction: Broncos moneyline
I recommend the Denver Broncos moneyline up to 51%.
The Broncos have won three straight with 23.3 points per game since head coach Sean Payton took over play-calling duties, and the defense has allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per play while ranking fifth in DVOA for the year.
Denver is also set for a huge defensive upgrade with four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain II returning to practice as a full participant this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs have also dropped three straight games at Mile High, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown for a career-low 6.7 aDOT, which includes a 5.1 mark in each of the past two games.
With the Broncos allowing the sixth-lowest yards per passing attempt, I'm expecting Mahomes to have his hands full again this week.
COVERS INTEL: The Broncos pace the NFL in PFF pass rush grade while ranking sixth in pass rush win rate.
Chiefs vs Broncos combo
Payton is looking to give rookie running back Jonah Coleman more touches this week, after Coleman impressed in Week 7 with 54 yards on just nine rushes and 3.11 yards after contact per carry.
Denver posted a fourth-ranked rushing DVOA in Week 7 after ranking 15th through the first six games, and Coleman was a huge reason for the improvement with a season-high 49% offensive snap share.
He also handled three red-zone carries in Week 2 and scored before sustaining an ankle injury that cost him four games, so I'm anticipating the rookie seeing more work inside the 20-yard line against the Chiefs. Our Chiefs vs. Broncos prop picks and Week 8 expert combo picks have more ways to attack this game.
Chiefs vs Broncos combo
- Broncos moneyline
- Jonah Coleman 40+ rushing yards
- Jonah Coleman anytime touchdown
Chiefs vs Broncos touchdown scorer: Jonah Coleman
Add the positive Coleman reviews from Payton to Denver running back J.K. Dobbins dipping to just 3.2 yards per carry over the past three games, and the rookie is closing in on a go-to role for the Broncos.
Coleman's 0.12 EPA per rush is a high-end mark, and his physical between-the-tackles style makes him the best option for red-zone looks in the Denver backfield. See all of our Chiefs vs. Broncos anytime touchdown scorer predictions for more options.
Chiefs vs Broncos player prop: Patrick Mahomes 15+ rushing yards
This prop is playable up to 50% because Denver has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks with six QBs scampering for 15 or more yards in five of six games.
Mahomes has also rushed seven times for 30 yards over the past two weeks, and the Broncos topping the league in PFF pass rush grade will have the veteran QB on the move early and often Sunday.
Of course, Mahomes has totaled a healthy 5.75 yards per scramble this season, too.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 42-34, +6.96 units
- Combos: 0-15, -15 units
Chiefs vs Broncos odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Chiefs -1.5 | Broncos +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (50%) | Under 40.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Chiefs 53% | Broncos 48%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
More NFL Week 8 predictions
- Colts vs. Jaguars prediction
- Ravens vs. Bills prediction
- Vikings vs. Lions prediction
- Browns vs. Steelers prediction
- Raiders vs. Jets prediction
Chiefs vs Broncos weather
The forecast calls for a chilly, mostly clear afternoon in Denver with a kickoff temperature around 42°F and light northwest winds blowing between 5 to 10 mph.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Chiefs vs Broncos trend to know
The Broncos have won 16 of their last 21 games (+9.80 units, 18% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Broncos.
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How to watch Chiefs vs Broncos
| Location | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colo. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Chiefs vs Broncos latest injuries
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