CJ Stroud has rushed for 32 yards on five carries against the Rams, and 27 yards on four carries against the Buccaneers. With his receiving corps getting a boost, the Jaguars won’t be able to spy him as easily.
This TD prop opened at +140 last week, and I hit it with a five-star approach. He closed around even money, so I’m surprised to see it back at this price. Bhayshul Tuten is getting some run after the Tank Bigsby trade, but he wasn’t a major factor on early downs. Travis Etienne played 80% of the snaps on first and second down. According to Jacob Gibbs on X, Etienne is one of just three backs in the league to gain positive yards on 90% of his carries. He’s also averaging 3.4 yards before contact, second in the NFL behind Jahmyr Gibbs (min. 15 rushes). In Liam Coen’s offense, trusting the lead back is easy—especially near the goal line. Only James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs have more red-zone carries than Etienne this season.
Following the trade of Tank Bigsby to Philly, Bhayshul Tuten has emerged as Jacksonville's clear-cut RB2 behind Travis Etienne Jr. The rookie tallied a touchdown and 100 all-purpose yards against the Bengals in Week 2, and Tuten should thrive against a Houston defense that has allowed 120.5 rushing yards per game during its 0-2 start.
Stroud’s PFF passing grade ranks 37th of 40 so far this year. He’s making plays with his legs to extend drives, but he’s getting little help at the moment.
Jacksonville will want to run the ball, which will shorten the game. But the penalties continue to be a major issue for the Jaguars, causing them to have to settle too often for Cam Little field goals.
The Texans will also try to run the ball, as they did against Tampa Bay, no matter how futile giving the ball to Chubb may be. And a lower number of explosive plays will help keep the total down as both offenses sputter too repeatedly.
Liam Coen loves what he’s seeing from Travis Etienne Jr, who has rushed for 214 yards on 30 carries so far. Add in the solid performance by Bhayshul Tuten against the Bengals, and Trevor Lawrence has some help.
Tampa Bay rushed for 5.6 yards an attempt, and the Coen will use the ground game and quick hitters to Travis Hunter to help protect his quarterback behind a shaky line. That will also help open up the play-action game, an area where the Bucs hurt Houston.
The Texans won’t have that luxury, and Jacksonville’s pass rush will get to Stroud enough to help stall drives as the Jags cover the spread.
Houston barely lost a MNF matchup to Tampa Bay and now travels to Jacksonville as road dogs (this was -1.5 on the look-ahead line this summer). The Texans' defense is their strength and faces a Jaguars offense that has benefited from two games against horrible defensive foes - Carolina and Cincinnati. As for the Houston offense, it catches a break in pass protection versus a Jags stop unit struggling to produce pressure. The Texans have faced tricky defenses in the Rams and Bucs, but get a break in Week 3. Jacksonville runs more zone coverage under new DC Anthony Campanile and Houston QB C.J. Stroud is a much better passer picking apart zone schemes than man-to-man.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.. C.J. Stroud has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in football when it comes to quarterbacks (2nd percentile).. Since the start of last season, the feeble Jaguars defense has conceded a colossal 1.74 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-largest rate in football.
The Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jaguars.. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Jacksonville O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.. The Texans defense has conceded the 3rd-most receiving TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 1.21 per game since the start of last season.
The Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jaguars.. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Travis Etienne has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which puts him in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs.. The Jacksonville O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Texans to pass on 55.4% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. Houston's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially increased (and rushing stats reduced) as a result of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier weather in this week's game.. The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.. This week, C.J. Stroud is anticipated by the predictive model to have the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 33.0.
The Jaguars have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.3 plays per game.. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.. Trevor Lawrence's passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 61.2% to 57.3%.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the lowest rate in football versus the Texans defense since the start of last season (64.9% Adjusted Completion%).. The Texans pass defense has shown strong efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 7.09 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Jaguars defense has been torched for a whopping 42.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 2nd-worst in football.. The Jaguars pass defense has not been good when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 7.61 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in the league.
The Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jaguars.. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The model projects Travis Etienne to garner 3.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among running backs.. Travis Etienne is positioned as one of the leading running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 18.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to run on 44.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Nick Chubb's ground effectiveness has improved this year, averaging 4.00 adjusted yards-per-carry vs just 3.20 mark last year.. Since the start of last season, the poor Jaguars run defense has allowed a colossal 129.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 8th-most in football.
The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to run on 44.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. C.J. Stroud's 7.39 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season conveys a noteable gain in his running talent over last season's 5.89 figure.. Since the start of last season, the poor Jaguars run defense has allowed a colossal 129.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 8th-most in football.
The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.. With an exceptional rate of 2.19 yards-after-contact (77th percentile), Trevor Lawrence has been among the leading running quarterbacks in football since the start of last season.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Houston's collection of DTs has been very bad since the start of last season, profiling as the 5th-worst in football. in football.
Houston Trends
Jacksonville Trends