Expert Touchdown Picks for NFL Week 4

Cashing anytime touchdown bets in Week 4 relies on identifying green-zone usage and mismatch nightmares. 

Omarion Hampton headlines our card with secure volume inside the 10-yard line, while Deebo Samuel provides elite value across multiple scoring avenues.

Add in longshot sleeper value with Sione Vaki, and our expert NFL picks target the best touchdown edges on the market.

NFL touchdown picks for Week 4

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Colts vs Commanders	Tyler Warren 34%
Patriots vs Bills	James Cook 57%
Jets vs Bears	Kyle Monangai 36%
Jaguars vs Bengals	Mike Gesicki 24%
Cardinals vs Giants	Trey McBride 40%
Rams vs Eagles	Darius Cooper 20%
Packers vs Buccaneers	Christian Watson 39%
Titans vs Ravens	Carnell Tate 21%
Cowboys vs  Texans	Jake Ferguson 19%
Dolphins vs Vikings	Jordan Addison 44%
Chiefs vs Raiders	Kenneth Walker III 61%
Broncos vs 49ers	Deebo Samuel 38%
Chargers vs Seahawks	Omarion Hampton 45%
Lions vs Panthers	Sione Vaki 13%
Falcons vs Saints	Juwan Johnson 30%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

Start trading with Kalshi today!

Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60 — including the NFL!

Sign Up Now at

*Eligible U.S. locations only

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Expert NFL touchdown picks for Week 4

Colts vs Commanders: Tyler Warren

Indianapolis tight end Tyler Warren scored in the Colts’ first two games of the season and has a solid shot at finding the end zone in Hotspur Stadium.

Warren will be a popular passing target for Jones, given Washington’s aggressive pass rush. The Commanders are dialing up the blitz at the fourth-highest rate, leaving tight ends plenty of room to operate underneath the coverage for quick releases.

Washington has allowed the seventh most yards to TEs but, more notably, has given up five touchdowns to the position in only three games. Adding to those issues is an illness to SS Nick Cross, who didn’t make the trip to London.

Warren has caught all three balls thrown his way inside the red zone, two of which ended in six points. Touchdown projections for Warren sit between 32% and 50%, with most models at 40%+.

Check out Jason Logan's full Colts vs. Commanders predictions.

Patriots vs Bills: James Cook

Cook already has two touchdowns this season, and the volume suggests there are plenty more to come. He's left some meat on the bone with Josh Allen vulturing a few scoring opportunities, but the workload remains extremely encouraging.

Against the Patriots, Cook should see similar volume inside the 20, and that’s all I need to back him heading into Week 4.

Averaging just around 20 totes per game against a defense allowing teams to score at a 62% clip in the red zone, Cook is as safe a bet as you're going to get in this game.

Check out Dustin Saracini's full Patriots vs. Bills predictions.

Jets vs Bears: Kyle Monangai

Speaking of that Chicago rushing attack, there's far more than one back for the Jets to worry about on Sunday. Even with Williams out of the lineup, there's also Kyle Monangai, who is averaging 5.9 yards per run over 30 carries so far this year. 

Monangai only has one touchdown so far this season, but he's consistently getting 10 rushes per game. That usage and his big play ability -- he sprang a 61-yard run in Week 1 -- makes him a TD threat every week. I like Monangai to score at up to 40%.

Check out Ed Scimia's full Jets vs. Bears predictions.

Jaguars vs Bengals: Mike Gesicki

With defenses so focused on stopping Cincinnati's other red zone threats, Mike Gesicki offers nice value at this price. He's already caught two touchdown passes this season, and he's a lock for single coverage around the goal line.

While the Jaguars have kept tight ends quiet in the opening weeks of the season, they gave up nine TDs to that position group last season.

In what feels like a high-scoring battle, look for Gesicki to have one of the more favorable matchups when the Bengals are knocking on the door, and Jacksonville's stingy run defense could force the hosts to steer away from the ground game in those moments.

Check out Tom Oldfield's full Jaguars vs. Bengals predictions.

Cardinals vs Giants: Trey McBride

Continuing with McBride, he has scored in 11 of his past 20 games, to go along with a 40% red-zone target share for the Cards through three weeks.

The Giants also allowed an 82.4% completion percentage to tight ends through their first two games before playing in horrible weather in Week 3, so with New York also allowing touchdowns on 77.8% of its trips to the end zone, I recommend McBride to score up to 58% against the injury-depleted secondary Sunday.

Check out Neil Parker's full Cardinals vs. Giants predictions.

Rams vs Eagles: Darius Cooper

Playable to 15%.

Darius Cooper is in line for a significant increase in snaps in Week 4 with DeVonta Smith ruled out. Cooper was consistently praised throughout training camp and the preseason for the strides he made during his first NFL offseason, and early in 2026, he's earned more playing time while even getting designed touches as the primary option.

Cooper played a season-high 46 snaps in Week 2 against the Titans, catching the game-winning touchdown in the closing minutes. He isn't especially tall at 5-foot-11, but his 210-pound frame makes him an underrated red-zone target. This is an appealing price for a player who has already scored once this season, and the Rams' defensive absences only improve his chances.

Check out Nick Galaida's full Rams vs. Eagles predictions.

Packers vs Buccaneers: Christian Watson

Play to 45%.

Watson is Love's go-to man in the red zone. He already has six red-zone targets, accounting for 42.9% of Green Bay's red-zone pass attempts, and three of his four touchdowns this season have come inside the 20.

The wideout has also caught three touchdown passes from inside the 10-yard line. Tampa Bay has been strong in the red zone through three weeks, allowing touchdowns on just 37.5% of opposing trips. However, Watson’s usage is difficult to ignore, and his size and physicality can create problems for the Bucs secondary.

Check out Quinn Allen's full Packers vs. Buccaneers predictions.

Titans vs Ravens: Carnell Tate

I just like this price for a sprinkle (up to 23%) considering Titans rookie WR Carnell Tate was the first receiver selected in the 2026 NFL Draft at fourth overall and he's played the highest rate of offensive snaps among Tennessee's skill-position players. 

More importantly, Tate already has a skill that translates near the goal line. Per Pro Football Focus, Tate is 4-for-4 in contested catches, so he can come down with a jump ball in the end zone. Between his draft capital and immediate playing time, the opportunities should continue coming.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Titans vs. Ravens predictions.

Cowboys vs Texans: Jake Ferguson

Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson isn’t the same receiving threat as Lamb or Pickens, but when all eyes are on those two WRs, Ferguson is making the most of his soft coverage.

He’s scored three touchdowns in the past two games (and got very close to another in Week 1), catching all four red zone targets his way this season. Despite that activity in the end zone, Ferguson is still trading at a respectable return to find paydirt again in Week 4.

His TD projections sit between 25% and 40% in Week 4, with most probabilities north of 30%. 

Check out Jason Logan's full Cowboys vs. Texans predictions.

Dolphins vs Vikings: Jordan Addison

Play to 45%.

Jefferson hasn't practiced this week, and it remains to be seen if he'll be available as he continues to rehab an ankle injury. If he doesn't suit up, Jordan Addison will have an even larger role than he already has. 

While Addison has just one TD so far, he's second on the team in targets with 16, just one behind Jefferson. The ex-USC star stepped up when Jefferson exited last week, finishing with five catches for 90 yards and a score. 

With big-play ability and the strong chance of operating as WR1 on Sunday, Addison is worth a serious look to find the end zone. 

Check out Quinn Allen's full Dolphins vs. Vikings predictions.

Chiefs vs Raiders: Kenneth Walker III

The breakeven number for Kansas City Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III to find the end zone is 64%, so there’s value here. 

He has handled 51.3% of the touches and 71.4% of the carries for the Chiefs inside the red zone and scored four times through three games.

Of course, Walker’s underlying numbers also pop with a league-high 4.66 yards after contact per carry and PFF elusive rating.

Check out Neil Parker's full Chiefs vs. Raiders predictions.

Broncos vs 49ers: Deebo Samuel

Niners WR Deebo Samuel Sr.'s anytime touchdown prop is playable up to 40% because Kyle Shanahan uses him in so many ways. Last week, Samuel cashed a touchdown prop for me by scoring on an 80-yard hook-and-lateral with WR Mike Evans. 

Plus, Deebo gets carries and has 22 rushing touchdowns for his career. He is playing the highest percentage of snaps among San Francisco's wide receivers, and two 49ers wideouts missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, including Evans. That could lead to even more usage for Samuel on Sunday.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Broncos vs. 49ers predictions.

Chargers vs Seahawks: Omarion Hampton  

Shoutout to Kalshi, which is listing Hampton's anytime touchdown prop at one of the best prices in the market. I'd trade it up to 50%.

Hampton is my favorite Chargers skill-position player and was expected to break out once McDaniel, one of the league's best run-game specialists, joined the coaching staff. Hampton is doing his part, posting a 52.0% rushing success rate with two touchdowns this season.

If I'm right about Los Angeles' offense bouncing back Sunday, Hampton should have opportunities to finish drives near the goal line.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Chargers vs. Seahawks predictions.

Lions vs Panthers: Sione Vaki

Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs has the highest odds of scoring a touchdown than anyone in Week 4. Anytime I see percentages like this, I start to look at the RB2 and wonder if they could get some goal line love as well.

Behind Gibbs is third-year RB Sione Vaki, who saw his snap share spike to 31% in Week 2. 

Head coach Dan Campbell praised Vaki after the win against New York and we have seen him get a red-zone carry already this season. Detroit is trying to be smart about Gibbs’ wear and tear, which gives Vaki garbage time gains on SNF.

The Panthers have been pushed around on the ground, giving up the most rushing yards to RBs through three games. Carolina also collapses in the red zone, allowing foes to score on a league-high 85.7% trips inside the 20-yard line, with six rushing TDs against.

Check out Jason Logan's full Lions vs. Panthers predictions.

Falcons vs Saints: Juwan Johnson

I got this at 3.3x and would play it down to 3x.

Juwan Johnson commanded 20% of the targets in a 40-plus-dropback outing last week, catching all eight of his targets and scoring twice. He has six red-zone targets and three touchdowns this year and ranks second at the position in targets inside the 20. Fellow tight end Noah Fant, who also scored twice last week, has been limited in practice this week.

Travis Etienne is injured, which could boost passing volume, and the Falcons rank in the bottom third of the league in touchdowns allowed to tight ends. Johnson has emerged as the No. 2 option in a passing offense that ranks third in passing yards per game.

Pages related to this topic