We have a big slate of NFL games on Sunday, and I believe three big names will open the scoring in their respective games.
Prices are high, so check out my First Touchdown Picks, along with the rest of our NFL picks for Week 4.
Best Week 4 first touchdown scorer props
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Christian Watson
Derrick Henry
Travis KelcePercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Christian Watson
The best-value first-touchdown pick on the entire slate is Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson.
Firstly, despite the Packers' struggles, I’m totally out on taking a Tampa Bay Buccaneers player to open the scoring.
Then, if we’re looking at the Packers, we need to forget the running back room, with none of Kaleb Johnson, MarShawn Lloyd, or Chris Brooks doing enough to secure the job in Josh Jacobs’ absence.
This is the NFL’s worst running back corps so far this season, with just one touchdown between them and no one averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry.
That leaves us looking at the wideouts, and Watson stands head and shoulders above everyone, despite Matthew Golden’s impressive start to the year.
Watson has had 29 targets through three games, averaging 94 yards per game, and has scored four TDs, opening the scoring in two of three games so far.
He also leads the team in red-zone targets, averaging two per game.
- Matchup: Packers vs Buccaneers
- Date/Time: Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 p.m.
- Location: Raymond James Stadium
- TV: FOX
Pick #2: Derrick Henry
He might be chalk, but let’s not overthink Derrick Henry here.
The Tennessee Titans are a very bad football team, arguably the worst in the NFL, and the Baltimore Ravens come in as one of the biggest favorites of the week.
They’re also playing on home soil, with rain likely, and wideout Zay Flowers still questionable; things are trending toward a run-heavy game.
Time to step forward, King Henry.
We’ve been waiting for him to decline with age, but it hasn’t started yet, and he’s still averaging 22 carries a game and 4.6 yards per carry.
He’s racked up six touchdowns through three games and has already opened the scoring once, and the Titans are giving up a rushing touchdown per game.
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s coming again.
- Matchup: Titans vs Ravens
- Date/Time: Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 p.m.
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium
- TV: CBS
Pick #3: Travis Kelce
At 3-0, the Las Vegas Raiders are level at the top of the AFC West with Sunday’s opposition, the Kansas City Chiefs, but having played the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints, it’s fair to say that their record might be slightly inflated, which is why I’m bullish on the Chiefs likely opening the scoring.
Kenneth Walker is the obvious choice, but Travis Kelce has scored in two of three games so far and faces a Raiders defense that has given up five touchdowns to tight ends this season, the second most in the NFL.
They’ve also given up just one touchdown to an opposing running back through three games, which could be reason to steer clear of Walker.
It’s too soon to say that Kelce is back to his best, but he has 18 targets through three games and is averaging 16.5 yards per catch, looking very efficient.
- Matchup: Chiefs vs Raiders
- Date/Time: Sunday, October 4 at 4:25 p.m.
- Location: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: FOX
More NFL touchdown picks at Covers
- Week 4 anytime touchdown picks
- Week 4 Touchdown Survivor picks
- Week 4 touchdown combo
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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