The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders meet in Week 4 as the Sunday slate kicks off overseas at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England.
Our Commanders vs. Colts computer picks highlight eight player props worth targeting across the passing, receiving, and touchdown markets.
Be sure to check out our latest NFL picks before locking in your plays for Oct. 4.
Colts vs Commanders computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Colts |
 Commanders |
|---|---|
| Daniel Jones o10.5 rushing yards 55% |
Jacory-Croskey Merritt o60.5 rushing yards 53% |
| Tyler Warren o48.5 receiving yards 53% |
Stefon Diggs o47.5 receiving yards 54% |
| Jonathan Taylor o91.5 rushing yards 53% |
Chig Okonkwo o19.5 receiving yards 60% |
| Daniel Jones u31.5 passing attempts 55% |
Marcus Mariota u214.5 passing yards 53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Colts computer picks
Daniel Jones Over 10.5 rushing yards
Projection: 19.76 rushing yards
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is at his best when he uses his legs, and he’ll be facing a Washington Commanders defense that has allowed 30+ rushing yards to Sam Darnold and Dak Prescott over the last two games, as well as 17 to Jalen Hurts in Week 1.
This is our highest-rated prop of the game, featuring a 25.87% EV edge.
🔥trade Jones rushing yards now
Tyler Warren Over 48.5 receiving yards
Projection: 49.85 receiving yards
Washington has struggled against tight ends, surrendering the second-most adjusted receiving yards per game (74.0) since 2025.
Tyler Warren has already seen 22 targets through three contests, and this matchup sets up well for the Colts sophomore.
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Jonathan Taylor Over 91.5 rushing yards
Projection: 92.06 rushing yards
Jonathan Taylor has topped his rushing line in two of three games to start the season, and our computer projects a 2% EV edge ahead of kickoff.
Last season, the Colts running back trailed only James Cook in rushing yards, averaging 98.9 per contest.
🔥 Trade taylor rushing yards now
Daniel Jones Under 31.5 passing attempts
Projection: 30.47 passing attempts
This prop has hit in six of Jones' last seven starts at this line, while our model expects the Colts to pass on 53.9% of their plays, the fourth-lowest rate among all teams this week.
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Commanders computer picks
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 60.5 rushing yards
Projection: 66.75 rushing yards
Washington sports the NFL's fifth-most run-heavy offense (42.0%), and Indy's safeties also rank among the NFL's worst against the run since last season.
Considering star QB Jayden Daniels remains sidelined, expect the Commanders to rely heavily on Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
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Stefon Diggs Over 47.5 receiving yards
Projection: 51.99 receiving yards
Our computer expects Stefon Diggs to garner 7.2 targets in this game, placing him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
With WR1 Terry McLaurin also listed as questionable, Diggs could benefit from an expanded role.
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Chig Okonkwo Over 47.5 receiving yards
Projection: 30.11 receiving yards
Since the start of last season, the Colts have allowed 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs, the fourth-most in the NFL.
Travis Kelce turned back the clock with 101 receiving yards against Indy two weeks ago, and Chig Okonkwo could be the latest at the position to benefit from a weak Colts linebacking corps.
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Marcus Mariota Under 214.5 passing yards
Projection: 208.61 yards
Leading projections have the Commanders as the 11th-least pass-focused team this week.
Marcus Mariota has averaged just 199.2 passing yards across his last five starts, including throwing for only 182 against Seattle last week.
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