Pittsburgh 1st AFC North2-1

Cleveland 3rd AFC North2-1

8:15PM ET 8:15PM ET · Oct 01, 2026

Steelers vs Browns Picks & Props

PIT vs CLE Picks

NFL Picks

Spread

PIT -2.5 (-116)

Best Odds

0.0 -152

Pick made: 3 hours ago

-2.5 -118

-2.5 -120

-2.5 -112

-2.5 -120

0.0 -152

-2.5 -114

-2.5 -115

-2.5 -120

It might surprise you to hear that Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy have been great playing on a short week! Rodgers is 13-6 straight up and 13-5-1 against the spread in Thursday starts, while McCarthy’s Cowboys went 7-3 SU on Thursdays. More recently, Rodgers has thrown nine touchdowns against two interceptions in his three Thursday appearances since 2024. Pittsburgh is coming off its best offensive game of the season against Cincinnati. Cleveland has won two straight, but a closer look at the box scores shows the Browns lost the yards-per-play battle in both.

Read Full Analysis

Total

u38.5 (-110)

Best Odds

u38.5 -109

Pick made: yesterday

u38.5 -110

u38.5 -115

u37.5 -111

u38.5 -110

u38.0 -113

u38.5 -109

u37.5 -105

u38.0 -110

A short week is hard enough when you’re not a 40-year-old QB. Rodgers has little time to rest and ready for the Browns on Thursday. Expect the Steelers to ride the momentum of RB Jaylen Warren, who had 176 total yards in Week 3, as well as continue those shorter shots to the tight ends. Cleveland allowed only 4.9 yards per play to Carolina and was able to get solid pressure and collect three sacks in the win. That won’t leave much time in pocket for Rodgers to hit deeper throws. Deshaun Watson has been up and down the past two games. He faces a revamped Steelers defense playing a high rate of zone. Pittsburgh continues to generate takeaways, with two in the win over Cincinnati and six on the season. Some extended forecasts do show a 43% chance of rain showers in Cleveland for Thursday night with wind gusts up to 22 mph. I’m leaning Under and would like it even more if that wet weather shows up.

GAME & PLAYER PROPS	PROJECTIONS				ANALYSIS	BEST ODDS
SPREAD CLE +2.5 spread 1.64 PROJECTION -0.9 DIFFERENCE 9.57% EV Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5 Best odds BetRivers Best Odds 0.0 +125 +2.5 +100 +2.5 +100 +2.5 +100 +2.5 -108 +2.5 +100 0.0 +125 +2.5 -106 +2.5 -105 +2.5 +100 CLE +2.5 spread PROJECTION 1.64 PROJECTION -0.9 DIFFERENCE 9.57% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. 0.0 +125
TOTAL Under 38.5 Total 36.98 UNDER PROJECTION -1.5 DIFFERENCE 12.7% EV Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5 Best odds Caesars Best Odds u38.5 -109 u38.5 -110 u38.5 -110 u38.5 -115 u37.5 -111 u38.5 -110 u38.0 -113 u38.5 -109 u37.5 -105 u38.0 -110 Under 38.5 Total PROJECTION 36.98 UNDER PROJECTION -1.5 DIFFERENCE 12.7% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. u38.5 -109

Steelers vs Browns Picks & Props

PIT vs CLE Picks

PIT vs CLE Consensus Picks

61% picking Pittsburgh

51% picking Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Under

PIT vs CLE Props

Recent Form Trends

ROI Trends

The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 31% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 32% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.15 Units / 23% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.45 Units / 17% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 20 games (-11.25 Units / -48% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 17 games (-9.15 Units / -46% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have only covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 17 games (-7.55 Units / -36% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 17 games (-7.10 Units / -36% ROI)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 17 games (-6.45 Units / -30% ROI)

The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Team Total Over in their last 9 games at home (+9.25 Units / 84% ROI)

The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.10 Units / 44% ROI)

The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)

The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.45 Units / 58% ROI)

The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+5.45 Units / 47% ROI)

The Cleveland Browns have not hit the 1H Team Total Under in any of their last 9 games at home (-10.55 Units / -100% ROI)

The Cleveland Browns have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 16 games (-6.20 Units / -33% ROI)

The Cleveland Browns have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 16 games (-5.60 Units / -29% ROI)

The Cleveland Browns have only covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 17 games (-4.40 Units / -23% ROI)

The Cleveland Browns have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 16 games (-5.20 Units / -29% ROI)

The Cleveland Browns have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 2 of their last 7 games at home (-3.95 Units / -47% ROI)

PIT vs CLE Top User Picks

'seattle-8' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-2.5)

'seattle-8' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Under (40.5)

'lcborn4' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-2.5)

'lcborn4' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Over (38.5)

'Sexybaby5' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-2.5)

'qlh' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-2.5)

'qlh' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Under (40.5)

'Dannysgirl' is picking Cleveland to cover (+2.5)

'Dannysgirl' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Over (38.5)

'vicspics' is picking Cleveland to cover (+2.5)

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