Best NFL Picks Today

I price Washington closer to 50%, making 44% an easy buy. The Giants blitzed Jayden Daniels on 30% of his dropbacks in Week 5, but their pressure hasn't consistently gotten home. Against a Commanders offensive line ranked top 10 in pass block win rate, I like Washington's ability to pick up the blitz and let Daniels attack the vacated second level.

The Detroit Lions are a tight-end funnel defensively, allowing a league-high 73.7 receiving yards and 1.03 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends, both of which rank last in the NFL. Rookie Eli Raridon played more snaps than Hunter Henry last week and saw double the targets. His six red-zone targets also lead all New England pass catchers. With some uncertainty in the Patriots' backfield, we could also see a slight uptick in pass rate against Detroit in Berlin on Sunday morning, and this matchup is as good as it gets for the tight end that I have a fair price of 3.7x.

This was available at 5.45x, and a clear WR2 in an indoor game with a likely trailing game script has me buying this down to 5x. Jahan Dotson isn't a sexy name, but he runs 80% of the routes in this offense and still commands a 32% air-yard share, which is massive for a player priced at 17% to score a TD. Indoors, Michael Penix is a different quarterback. His passer rating across eight outdoor games is 68.1, and he's 1-7 SU. Indoors, that rating climbs north of 100, with a 15/5 TD/INT ratio compared to 7/8 on the road. If you're going to take a shot on a WR2, make sure it's indoors when Penix is getting him the ball.

The Bills have used multiple-TE sets at a rate of better than 50% in each of the last two weeks, including 64% against the Vikings last week. That resulted in Dawson Knox playing 18 more snaps than Dalton Kincaid, who doesn't look like he'll be the volume tight end we saw during the first couple of games this season. Buffalo continues to get creative in the red zone, keeping all of its longshot tight ends in play at their current prices. The Jets are a top-five matchup for opposing tight ends. Travis Kelce scored and led the Chiefs in receiving last week, Brock Bowers went for 7/92/2 in Week 8, and Greg Dulcich led the Dolphins in receiving the week before. Knox actually has more targets than Kincaid inside the 10-yard line, and I'd play him to 5.5x after getting 6x.

Ollie Gordon has taken over as Miami's workhorse; the matchup couldn't be much better, either, with Indianapolis surrendering 137 rushing yards per game and Gordon averaging close to 20 carries over the last four weeks. There's plenty of meat on the bone for Ollie to capitalize against a subpar defense that's allowed at least 100 yards on the ground six times this season. Run, Ollie, run.

I price Justin Jefferson at 44% to score, making 36% an easy buy. The market seems to be ignoring Kirk Cousins' return to Minnesota. There's no chemistry adjustment needed here, as Cousins and Jefferson already know each other well, with Jefferson enjoying the best seasons of his career with Cousins under center.

I got this at 5.35x, but it's a good buy down to 5x and shouldn't be priced much longer than Darren Waller, who is currently at 4.3x. Tommy Tremble played more snaps than Waller last week, which is particularly important given that the Panthers were playing from behind early. Tremble finished with six targets and four receptions, including a 10-yard touchdown. He also saw two red-zone targets in that loss and is tied with Waller for the team lead in red-zone opportunities. The Saints remain one of five teams allowing 27+ points per game this season, and the indoor environment only adds to the appeal of the Panthers' passing game.

This was 6x this week, and it's something I'd play down to 5.7x in a lay-up matchup for what might be the deepest team in football right now. The Jaguars should see a similar game script to their Week 9 matchup against the Ravens. Nate Boerkircher continues to carve out more snaps, playing 55% of them in a blowout win compared to 47% the week before. If the Titans can keep things competitive, the rookie tight end could see five targets as Brenton Strange's role as the TE1 continues to decline. The Titans allow the second-most passing yards in football at 258.3 per game, and that number jumps to 325.7 over their last three games. If you're trying to be profitable in TD betting, these are the types of prices and angles you need to consider. Hitting touchdowns at +200 or shorter makes it difficult to build a card with a 33% hit rate or better.

Tank Dell is coming off a team-high nine targets on just a 55% route share last week, and head coach DeMeco Ryans is suggesting we should see more of him going forward. This offense is healthy and dangerous against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 23+ points in three straight weeks to struggling offenses in Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans. I got Dell at 4.55x and would confidently play him down to 4x.

Let's back the rookie in his first start at 7.14x, with 6.5x being a more reasonable fair price. It's not an easy matchup, but at least the Seahawks have the league's second-worst red-zone TD rate at 75% this season. The Raiders have also been awful running the ball, averaging a league-low 2.9 yards per carry, with just two red-zone rushing touchdowns from their running backs on 45 attempts. Even Kirk Cousins found the end zone last week at 16/1. If he can do it, so can the betting favorite for OROY, who scored seven rushing touchdowns on 65 actual carries at Indiana last season. Young QBs can panic near the goal line, and I'll gladly take a couple of scrambles inside the 20.

The Rams returned Myles Garrett in Week 9, and this stop unit instantly got a shot in the arm, scoring four sacks and two takeaways. Los Angeles took down Washington 20-13 and stayed well short of the closing total of 47.5 points. The Arizona Cardinals aren’t providing much push back. They’re fine with either Gardner Minshew or rookie Carson Beck under center after trading Jacoby Brissett last week. That’s asking a lot of those QBs, considering the porous pass protection.

This was available at 4.17x and could be as short as 3x if he continues to operate as a top wide receiver, with Deebo Samuel working his way back from a hamstring injury and Mike Evans opening the week with a DNP. Head coach Kyle Shanahan talked up Jordan Watkins this week, praising his work ethic, how he's taken advantage of his opportunities, and his mental toughness. Brock Purdy is taking notice, too. Watkins ran the most routes among 49ers receivers last week at an 87% rate and led the group in both targets and air yards against the Raiders. The matchup and indoor environment are also in his favour, with the Cowboys being one of just two defenses allowing more than 1.00 WR touchdown per game and 160+ receiving yards to the position. This is worth getting in on early, as Watkins could maintain a significant role even if Samuel returns.

I'm on Pat Freiermuth at 4.17x in one of the best tight end matchups in football and would play him down to 3.85x. The Steelers are coming off their bye and face a Cincinnati defense that allows the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends in the NFL. The Bengals are also returning from Spain without the benefit of a bye. The last time we saw this offense, Darnell Washington was getting more snaps, but Freiermuth still leads comfortably in target share and has double the air-yard share of his backup. Both players see plenty of red-zone work, but Freiermuth already has four red-zone touchdowns this season, tied for second among tight ends. He's the Pittsburgh TE I'm backing at this price.