Baltimore @ New York props

The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to call the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. Derrick Henry's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 90.7% to 93.9%. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, New York's group of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 9th-worst in the NFL.

The Ravens are a heavy 16.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 44.3% of their downs: the lowest frequency among all teams this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: fewest in the NFL. Zay Flowers's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 75.1% to 66.6%.

The Ravens are a heavy 16.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 44.3% of their downs: the lowest frequency among all teams this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: fewest in the NFL. Mark Andrews's 32.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 46.8. Mark Andrews's receiving performance has worsened this season, notching just 3.3 adjusted receptions vs 4.5 last season.

The New York Giants may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Tommy DeVito. This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are massive -16.5-point underdogs. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league. Daniel Bellinger's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 89.4% to 100.0%.

The New York Giants may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Tommy DeVito. This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are massive -16.5-point underdogs. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week. The Giants have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 60.8 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

The New York Giants may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Tommy DeVito. This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are massive -16.5-point underdogs. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week. The Giants have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 60.8 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.