Best NFL Picks Today

Diggs topped this number last week despite going catchless in the first half. Treylon Burks' return to the lineup should mean a drop in snaps for Van Jefferson rather than Diggs, who leads the team in target share. He's not quite an alpha No. 1 pass catcher, but his floor is relatively safe, as he hasn't finished with fewer than 33 receiving yards in any game this season. Using a 25% targets-per-route-run rate (his season average is 26%) over 28 routes projects to roughly seven targets. Five catches for 50 yards is close to my projection, while Covers projects him at 54.1 receiving yards on 4.5 receptions.

The Lions’ pass defense has been an issue all season, with injuries in the secondary. Detroit has had a rough time with rival tight ends too, allowing the most yardage and 11 touchdowns to the position. Without its top two running backs, New England’s red zone work trickles down to the TE. Henry has drawn five red-zone targets for four catches and two touchdowns this season. 

This was available at 5.45x, and a clear WR2 in an indoor game with a likely trailing game script has me buying this down to 5x. Jahan Dotson isn't a sexy name, but he runs 80% of the routes in this offense and still commands a 32% air-yard share, which is massive for a player priced at 17% to score a TD. Indoors, Michael Penix is a different quarterback. His passer rating across eight outdoor games is 68.1, and he's 1-7 SU. Indoors, that rating climbs north of 100, with a 15/5 TD/INT ratio compared to 7/8 on the road. If you're going to take a shot on a WR2, make sure it's indoors when Penix is getting him the ball.

The Bills have used multiple-TE sets at a rate of better than 50% in each of the last two weeks, including 64% against the Vikings last week. That resulted in Dawson Knox playing 18 more snaps than Dalton Kincaid, who doesn't look like he'll be the volume tight end we saw during the first couple of games this season. Buffalo continues to get creative in the red zone, keeping all of its longshot tight ends in play at their current prices. The Jets are a top-five matchup for opposing tight ends. Travis Kelce scored and led the Chiefs in receiving last week, Brock Bowers went for 7/92/2 in Week 8, and Greg Dulcich led the Dolphins in receiving the week before. Knox actually has more targets than Kincaid inside the 10-yard line, and I'd play him to 5.5x after getting 6x.

This is available at 8.46x despite the trades that sent Keenan Allen to San Francisco and Josh Downs to Kansas City. That opens the door for Ashton Dulin to take on a larger role after scoring a TD last week. He's listed as a starting WR on the current depth chart and should see an increase in snaps. Head coach Shane Steichen also mentioned that Dulin and the other receivers will absorb those routes, with plenty of opportunities to go around. The Colts could be playing with great field position all game, with Kyle McCord starting under center for the Dolphins and unlikely to move the ball consistently. Any starting outside WR against Miami shouldn't be priced longer than 6x. This is great value created by the trades. At least we know Dulin cares about football in Indianapolis.

Williams has stepped into the WR3 role, giving Love a big target in the slot. He’s caught 11 of 13 targets for game outputs of five, 25, 32, and 47 yards. The Vikes have been exposed by slot options, most recently allowing Buffalo’s Khalil Shakir to pick up 58 yards on four receptions. Williams’ Week 10 projections vary, sitting between 15 and 24.5 yards. My projection comes out to 20 yards receiving but I see a higher ceiling, considering the matchup. 

I got this at 5.35x, but it's a good buy down to 5x and shouldn't be priced much longer than Darren Waller, who is currently at 4.3x. Tommy Tremble played more snaps than Waller last week, which is particularly important given that the Panthers were playing from behind early. Tremble finished with six targets and four receptions, including a 10-yard touchdown. He also saw two red-zone targets in that loss and is tied with Waller for the team lead in red-zone opportunities. The Saints remain one of five teams allowing 27+ points per game this season, and the indoor environment only adds to the appeal of the Panthers' passing game.

This was 6x this week, and it's something I'd play down to 5.7x in a lay-up matchup for what might be the deepest team in football right now. The Jaguars should see a similar game script to their Week 9 matchup against the Ravens. Nate Boerkircher continues to carve out more snaps, playing 55% of them in a blowout win compared to 47% the week before. If the Titans can keep things competitive, the rookie tight end could see five targets as Brenton Strange's role as the TE1 continues to decline. The Titans allow the second-most passing yards in football at 258.3 per game, and that number jumps to 325.7 over their last three games. If you're trying to be profitable in TD betting, these are the types of prices and angles you need to consider. Hitting touchdowns at +200 or shorter makes it difficult to build a card with a 33% hit rate or better.

Nico Collins is an absolute nightmare to deal with, and Cleveland's middling secondary is going to have its issues. Collins has four touchdowns in six games this season, and with Stroud coming off a five-touchdown clinic, that connection is looking as dangerous as ever. Give Collins an inch in the red zone, and he'll make you pay. Despite missing time, Collins is still 10th in the NFL with 10 red-zone targets, let's see some volume inside the 20 here.

I recommend this total up to 65+ yards. Las Vegas has been gashed on the ground over the past six weeks for a league-high 5.74 yards per carry and EPA per rush, and Charbonnet proved he was all the way back last week with a high-end 3.75 yards after contact per attempt and 110 PFF elusive rating. He finished the game with 66 rushing yards on 16 totes.

Beck will use Allgeier as a safety blanket against this big bad Rams pass rush and we’ll see some designed passes to the RB early on, in an attempt to get the rookie comfortable with a couple easy completions. Allgeier’s receiving yard outlooks all sit well above 10 yards, with a ceiling of 20 yards. My projection calls for 16.6 receiving yards on Sunday. Los Angeles just so happens to allow the most receiving yards to running backs entering Week 10, with 405 yards on 48 receptions – an average of 8.4 yards per catch by rival RBs. 

This was available at 4.17x and could be as short as 3x if he continues to operate as a top wide receiver, with Deebo Samuel working his way back from a hamstring injury and Mike Evans opening the week with a DNP. Head coach Kyle Shanahan talked up Jordan Watkins this week, praising his work ethic, how he's taken advantage of his opportunities, and his mental toughness. Brock Purdy is taking notice, too. Watkins ran the most routes among 49ers receivers last week at an 87% rate and led the group in both targets and air yards against the Raiders. The matchup and indoor environment are also in his favour, with the Cowboys being one of just two defenses allowing more than 1.00 WR touchdown per game and 160+ receiving yards to the position. This is worth getting in on early, as Watkins could maintain a significant role even if Samuel returns.

On the season, Pittsburgh has allowed the 15th most receiving yards to rival TEs despite giving up the fifth fewest targets. FTN rates the Steelers DVOA vs tight ends at 24th among all teams. Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki caught all three balls his way for 37 yards in the Week 3 matchup with the Steelers. Projections for Sunday night are very bullish for Gesicki, with all models north of 25 yards and a ceiling flirting with 40 yards. My number comes out to 33+ yards in Week 10.