Our Commanders vs. Giants expert picks for Thursday's NFC East showdown span the spread, the moneyline, and a pair of player props, with each of our experts finding a different way into the game.
See how they're attacking it, and check out our NFL picks for more.
Commanders vs Giants expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Expert Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: Austin Ekeler 10+ receiving yards |
47% |
 Josh Inglis: Stefon Diggs 40+ receiving yards |
50% |
 Joe Osborne: Commanders +2.5 |
51% |
 Jon Metler: Commanders moneyline |
44% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Jason Logan’s expert pick: Austin Ekeler 10+ receiving yards
Veteran running back Austin Ekeler is getting more run after the injury to Croskey-Merritt. He finished Week 9’s loss to L.A. playing 45% of snaps — a season high. Ekeler drew three targets for two catches and 18 yards receiving, with a long of 12 yards. He’s had 11 or more receiving yards in three of his five games since joining the Commies in October.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: Stefon Diggs 40+ receiving yards
Stefon Diggs topped this number last week despite going catchless in the first half. Treylon Burks’ return to the lineup should mean a drop in snaps for Van Jefferson rather than Diggs, who leads the team in target share. He’s not quite an alpha No. 1 pass catcher, but his floor is relatively safe, as he hasn’t finished with fewer than 33 receiving yards in any game this season.
Using a 25% targets-per-route-run rate (his season average is 26%) over 28 routes projects to roughly seven targets. Five catches for 50 yards is close to my projection, while Covers projections have him at 54.1 receiving yards on 4.5 receptions.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Commanders +2.5
The Washington Commanders aren’t as bad as their 2-5-1 record suggests, and the New York Giants aren’t as good as their 5-2-1 record indicates. Washington has been competitive against strong opponents and tied New York in Week 5 despite winning the yards-per-play battle 6.3 to 4.9.
The biggest advantage comes on the ground, where Washington ranks eighth in yards per rush against a Giants defense ranked 27th against the run. The Commanders ran for 202 yards against them in Week 5. Throw in J.J. McCarthy playing through a hip injury on a short week, and I’ll gladly take the points.
Jon Metler’s expert pick: Commanders moneyline
I price the Commanders closer to a 50% chance of winning, so I’m definitely hitting the button at 44%. The Giants love to bring pressure, blitzing Jayden Daniels on 30% of his dropbacks in Week 5. However, that approach hasn’t consistently produced results, and things get even tougher for New York against a Washington offensive line that ranks in the top 10 in pass-block win rate.
I like Washington’s ability to pick up the blitz, give Daniels time in the pocket, and allow him to attack the vacated second level of the defense. That’s the matchup advantage I’m banking on at 44%.
How to watch Commanders vs Giants
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J. |
| Date | Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
