Stefon Diggs' receiving Over and J.J. McCarthy's passing Under headline our Commanders vs. Giants computer picks for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 12.
We break down four Overs and four Unders using our NFL player prop projections, with workload and recent form guiding the analysis below. Find more matchup coverage in our NFL picks.
Commanders vs Giants computer picks
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 Commanders |
 Giants |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs Over 39.5 receiving yards 49% |
J.J. McCarthy Under 199.5 passing yards 47% |
| Rachaad White Over 39.5 rushing yards 49% |
Cam Skattebo Over 56.5 rushing yards 46% |
| Jayden Daniels Under 39.5 rushing yards 54% |
Malik Nabers Under 69.5 receiving yards 52% |
| Chig Okonkwo Over 29.5 receiving yards 59% |
Isaiah Likely Under 48.5 receiving yards 55% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Commanders vs Giants computer picks and projections
Commanders computer picks
Stefon Diggs Over 39.5 receiving yards (49%)
Projection: 56.10 receiving yards
Stefon Diggs leads the Washington Commanders in receiving yards, and his projected 7.5 targets should keep him central to the passing game. The 56.10-yard forecast puts him 16.60 above 39.5, while his 43.3-yard season average adds support for backing the Over at this number.
🔥 Trade Diggs receiving yards now
Rachaad White Over 39.5 rushing yards (48%)
Projection: 47.31 rushing yards
The model projects Rachaad White to handle 39.9% of Washington's carries, up from 29.8% in the games he has played, making increased volume the key to this Over.
His 47.31-yard forecast sits 8.19 above 39.5, but totals of 28 and 27 yards in two of his last three games make that expected workload increase particularly important.
🔥 Trade White rushing yards now
Jayden Daniels Under 39.5 rushing yards (54%)
Projection: 32.98 rushing yards
Jayden Daniels has managed just 49 rushing yards on 10 carries over his last three games, supporting the model's 32.98-yard forecast and Under 39.5.
His 103-yard outing in the first meeting with the New York Giants is the clear counterargument, so this pick depends on the recent drop in rushing volume continuing.
🏈 Trade Daniels rushing yards now
Chig Okonkwo Over 29.5 receiving yards (59%)
Projection: 36.85 receiving yards
Chig Okonkwo has cleared 29.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games, including 60 in the first meeting with New York, and his 6.1 projected targets support another productive outing.
The 36.85-yard forecast still leaves 7.35 yards of cushion, making the 29.5-yard threshold important to this Over.
🔥 Trade Okonkwo receiving yards now
Giants computer picks
J.J. McCarthy Under 199.5 passing yards (47%)
Projection: 183.30 passing yards
The model expects New York to throw on 50.9% of plays and ranks its offense fifth-slowest in neutral-situation pace, both of which could limit J.J. McCarthy's passing opportunities.
His 183.30-yard forecast sits 17.20 below 208.5, giving this Under room for a somewhat more productive passing night than the model anticipates.
🏈 Trade McCarthy passing yards now
Cam Skattebo Over 59.5 rushing yards (46%)
Projection: 62.43 rushing yards
With coach John Harbaugh expecting Cam Skattebo to be “full-go” after his hamstring absence, New York's projected 49.1% run rate offers a path to steady carries.
His 59 yards on 13 attempts in the first meeting with Washington would fall just short of this line, but the 62.43-yard projection allows for a small step up.
🔥 Trade Skattebo rushing yards now
Malik Nabers Under 69.5 receiving yards (52%)
Projection: 63.89 receiving yards
New York's projected 50.9% pass rate could limit the opportunities available to Malik Nabers, whose 63.89-yard forecast falls 5.61 below 69.5.
He posted four straight 100-yard games before last week's 43, so the Under relies on the anticipated passing volume keeping an otherwise productive receiver in check.
🏈 Trade Nabers receiving yards now
Isaiah Likely Under 49.5 receiving yards (55%)
Projection: 43.92 receiving yards
The model projects Isaiah Likely for 43.92 receiving yards, 5.58 below 49.5, with New York's slow pace and limited passing volume supporting the Under.
He has topped 48.5 in five of eight games, however, so the higher threshold matters.
🏈 Trade Likely receiving yards now
Not intended for use in MA.
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