Best NFL Picks Today

Is there anything more beautiful than CMC checkdowns? The man was the entire offense last year, and while that type of workload probably isn't in the cards for him this season, I think five receptions out of the backfield/slot is definitely in play tonight. Purdy simply loves his safety blanket, and he won't shy away from him in a neutral-site game in Australia. McCaffrey went over this number in 13 regular-season games last year; if Myles Garrett and that Rams defensive line pressure Purdy like we all know that unit can, expect McCaffrey to gobble up receptions all night.

The gap between Colston Loveland's TD market implied probability (32%) and his actual chance of scoring (fair around 40%) is a big Week 1 advantage for early bettors. Loveland averaged 66 yards per game after Week 8 last season while adding touchdowns in five of those games (six total). Wide receiver Rome Odunze (leg) suffered his injury last Thursday and didn't practice Tuesday, while Luther Burden has been out for about a month with a groin injury and is working his way back to practice this week. It's the perfect spot at the wrong price for Caleb Williams' favorite target over the second half of last season. Williams finished last year with the third-highest deep-throw rate, and Loveland, who doesn't drop balls and played 40% of his snaps in the slot or out wide, could take full advantage as the healthiest pass catcher on the roster.

Lamar Jackson faces a blast from AFC North past when he and the Ravens take on the Colts and DC Lou Anarumo in Week 1. During his tenue with Cincinnati, Anarumo couldn’t slow down Jackson consistently and the Ravens QB chewed up his blitz-heavy schemes. Jackson recorded several multi-TD passing games versus those Bengals teams and constantly ranks out among the best QBs vs. blitz in the NFL. New Baltimore OC Declan Doyle got to work against two blitz-centric foes in joint practices this summer – Washington and Minnesota – ironing out the wrinkles against similar pressure before this Week 1 outing. I like Lamar to make Indy pay with two or more passing TDs.

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league last year with an exceptional 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.. The Atlanta Falcons defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in football.

Bought at x3.7. Fair at x3.15. The Jaguars are trying to get Brian Thomas going after the disaster that was last season, and those moves might revive the burner. Thomas was useless over the middle under first-year offensive coach Liam Coen who is pushing him to the “X” receiver and using him more like the vertical threat he was in his rookie year. Travis Hunter is still not a major threat so last year’s setup with Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington will still be the norm for Thomas who has had a leadup to the season. Cleveland is obviously without Mykles Garrett, but this is still a great defense, however, it’s not a bad one to attack early as it will be learning a new scheme under first-year DC Mike Rutenberg who replaces Jim Schwartz after he bailed on the organization after not getting the HC job. If he looks good in Week 1, bettors will never see a payout like this all season. 

 

The Titans defense is a work in progress and Saleh’s trying the plug the gaps with familiar faces, including five former members of Gang Green. New York also have caught a break with Tennessee’s top tackler LB Cedric Gray crashing his UTV and suffering a concussion. There’s plenty of tape on Saleh’s schemes lying around East Rutherford, which helps new offensive coordinator Frank Reich ready his gameplan. New York has promising players at the skill positions and an offensive line looking to build on a better second half of 2025. New York opened +3 back in the spring and offseason action has trimmed this down to +1.5. It would seem Robert Saleh isn’t the only one who believes in the Jets offense. 

Here is another long shot that has my attention because of the possible heavy sets the Lions might run this year under new OC Drew Petzing. While in Arizona, he ran 2-TE sets at the sixth-highest rate in the league, and 3-TE sets at the highest rate. That playbook alone should get Brock Wright, who was already playing 35+ snaps last season, on the field more. Over the last two seasons, 15 of 33 passes inside the 5-yard line for Petzing's Cardinals went to a tight end. Ty Conklin is behind him on the depth chart, but he also just signed on September 1. The real bread and butter is the health of Sam LaPorta, who is dealing with a hip injury. He missed every preseason game and could be on a snap count early in the season after missing the second half of last year. Keep an eye on LaPorta's practice reps today, because Wright is lying in the weeds with a TE-heavy offense at a huge price. Just a half-unit here. 

I bought this at -120 but have the fair price closer to -150. It's Week 1, and I want a layup to get on the board. I don't see many running backs as likely to score Sunday as David Montgomery. The Bills gave up a league-high 18 TDs to opposing running backs last year and are a worse unit this season after losing five starters and bringing in a new defensive scheme. The Texans were one of the worst teams near the goal line last season, and they'll make it a point to change that narrative this year with their new back. Montgomery should get the majority of the red-zone work, and Houston can flirt with four TDs.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.. While Charlie Kolar has accounted for 3.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played last year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Los Angeles's passing attack in this game at 9.0%.. Last year, the poor Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed a colossal 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-most in the league.. Last year, the anemic Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a staggering 0.00 YAC.

Murray has a good idea of the defense he’ll face in Week 1. He played it every day in practice for the past three years. Former Arizona coach Jonathan Gannon is the new defensive coordinator in Green Bay. On top of being able to find Jefferson and Jordan Addison for deep TD connections, Murray’s ability to make plays outside the pocket gives O’Connell a new twist inside the 20-yard line. He has excellent jump ball options in burly WR Jauan Jennings and TE T.J. Hockenson. Projections tick as high as 1.6 TD passes and isn’t here just to hand the ball off. I’d play his 2+ touchdowns as high as 48%.

I bought this at 10.5x with a fair price of 7.5x. This one is all about the price, as 9.5% or 10.5x is simply far too much for a starting wide receiver on any team, let alone one facing the Dolphins. Jack Bech secured the No. 3 receiver spot behind Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor. He's projected for just a couple of catches and 23 yards, but this is the price of a WR5, a player likely to see 10-15 snaps, not someone who is likely to see 30+ like Tyler Lockett did a season ago. This is a long shot for a reason, but one that should be priced closer to 6.5x. If you want more action in this game, keep an eye on the Raiders' tight end usage, as Klint Kubiak used 12 personnel at the fifth-highest rate last year. Michael Mayer (7x for a TD) could see a bigger role.

This is the highest-rated touchdown at this probability, according to Covers' new Anytime Touchdown Value Index. Just another tool to help you sort through the noise, get to your pick a lot quicker, and give you back your time. There isn't a category across the many inputs where Dallas Goedert isn't showing value. I know matching last year's 11 TDs will be tough, but the matchup, scoring environment, red-zone role, role certainty, and relative price are all pointing to a buy in Week 1. He scores an 80 on the CATVI. It could be a better passing offense, with more looks under center for Jalen Hurts, while the loss of A.J. Brown opens up more targets for the tight end.

New OC Matt Nagy wants Dart to take more snaps under center. That’s a big change from his college days and first year in the pros, with Dart primarily working out of the shotgun. Taking away that buffer will be a hard habit to break for the second-year QB. Throw at him a Dallas front that ranked tops in pressure rate last season, and Dart will lose his cool and opt to tuck and run rather than stand in the pocket. On top of getting his number called for carries, my projections sit at 32+ yards with some models as high as 36 rushing yards from Dart.

Expect the Broncos to test Mahomes’ mobility with their vaunted pass rush. Denver is a Top 5 stop unit, anchored in pressure. The last thing defensive coordinator Vance Joseph wants is to allow Mahomes to get comfortable in his return. An ailing offensive line could compound things for Kansas City. Guard Trey Smith has been limited by a hip injury all summer and admitted he’s not 100% heading into the opener. On the other side of the line, tackle Josh Simmons could sit Week 1 due to a back injury. Sprinkle in the possibility of slick field conditions, with thunderstorms around Arrowhead on Monday, and Denver will dampen Mahomes’ miraculous return to action.