A few notable deals came in the witching hour of our NFL trade deadline tracker, shaking up the latest Super Bowl odds heading into the final stretch of the season.
Futures prices shift with every trade, but some move more than they should. We're using Kalshi to identify where the market has overreacted or underreacted in the latest NFL odds.
NFL futures predictions following the trade deadline
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jaguars to win Super Bowl 61 |
11% |
 Vikings to win the NFC North: Yes |
20% |
 Chiefs to win the AFC West: Yes |
42% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jacksonville is to be feared
Prediction: Jaguars — Yes (11%)
The biggest winner made its moves before deadline day (many such cases), as the Jacksonville Jaguars upgraded an already elite defense by adding Jordan Davis, Jessie Bates III, and Davon Godchaux in a single day.
Jacksonville's Super Bowl odds have climbed to an 11% probability at Kalshi, but I still see value in a team now vying for the AFC's No. 1 seed, with Buffalo (or rather, Josh Allen) the only other team in the conference that scares me.
Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career, boasting a 111.7 passer rating and an 18:4 TD-to-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's stop unit has been just as dominant, ranking among the league's best in defensive EPA and surrendering just 15.1 points per game, the second-fewest in the NFL.
DUUUUVAAALLLL!
Kirk Cousins takes Minnesota over the top
| Outcome | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
 Bears to win the NFC North |
36% | 65% |
 Lions to win the NFC North |
29% | 72% |
| Vikings to win the NFC North |
20% | 80% |
 Packers to win the NFC North |
16% | 85% |
Prediction: Vikings to win NFC North — Yes (20%)
YOU LIKE THAT?!
Kirk Cousins is back in purple and gold, and the Minnesota Vikings won't need the veteran to play hero ball. After Carson Wentz's all-time stinker on MNF, Minnesota simply needs steady quarterback play to get its offense off the ground.
This is a Vikings team that still boasts a 6-2 record despite failing to score a touchdown in three of those games. Cousins was more than serviceable during his brief stint with the Raiders, posting a 97.1 passer rating across nine starts and ranking second in the NFL with 20 touchdown passes.
With Cousins already familiar with Kevin O'Connell's system and the Vikings ranking second in defensive EPA and first in special teams EPA, I trust Minnesota more than any other team in the division.Red Kingdom reigns supreme
| Outcome | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
 Broncos to win the AFC West |
59% | 42% |
| Chiefs to win the AFC West |
42% | 59% |
 Raiders to win the AFC West |
2% | 99% |
 Chargers to win the AFC West |
1% | OTB |
Our prediction: Chiefs to win the AFC West — Yes (42%)
This division is now a clear two-horse race between the 7-2 Denver Broncos and 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs, and I trust the latter.The Chiefs got the receiver help they'd been chasing by sending a 2027 fourth- and fifth-round pick to the Colts for Josh Downs. It's a reasonable price for another weapon for Patrick Mahomes in an offense that is already thriving, with Kenneth Walker III carrying a ground-heavy attack.
Steve Spagnuolo's defense is already doing its part, too. Kansas City ranks eighth in defensive EPA per play allowed, and that unit is coming off sacking Geno Smith five times while keeping the Jets out of the end zone in Week 9.
Denver, meanwhile, is struggling to move the ball with Bo Nix under center, so as good as the Broncos' defense is, I'm backing the more balanced team at 42%.
Recent NFL trades
| Date | Player | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Nov. 10 | Josh Downs IND receives a 2027 fourth and a 2027 fifth. KC also receives a 2027 seventh, per Tom Pelissero. |
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| Nov. 10 | Daiyan Henley LAC receives a 2027 fourth-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick. |
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| Nov. 10 | Kirk Cousins LV receives Minnesota’s own 2027 third-round pick. |
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| Nov. 10 | Amani Hooker TEN receives a 2027 second-round pick. BUF also receives a 2027 fifth-round pick. |
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| Nov. 10 | Keenan Allen IND receives a 2027 sixth-round pick. |
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| Nov. 9 | Jordan Davis PHI receives a 2027 first and a 2029 second. Pending a physical. |
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| Nov. 9 | Andre Cisco NYJ receives a 2028 sixth-round pick. |
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| Nov. 9 | Davon Godchaux NO receives a conditional 2028 sixth. If JAC acquires a 2027 sixth, that pick goes to NO instead. Pending a physical. |
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| Nov. 9 | Jessie Bates III ATL receives a 2027 second and a 2028 fifth; JAC receives the former Pro Bowl safety, pending a physical. |
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| Nov. 6 | Jacoby Brissett ARI receives a 2027 fourth and a 2028 seventh; BAL also receives a 2027 fifth, per ESPN. |
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| Oct. 29 | Jeffery Simmons TEN receives 2027 and 2028 firsts and a 2027 fourth; CHI also receives a 2028 fifth. |
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| Oct. 27 | DeForest Buckner IND receives a 2027 fourth-round pick. |
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| Oct. 27 | Quenton Nelson IND receives a 2027 third and a 2028 fifth. |
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| Oct. 12 | Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI receives 2027 second- and seventh-round picks; HOU also receives a 2027 sixth. |
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| Oct. 7 | Cam Jurgens PHI receives a 2027 fifth and a 2028 second; BAL also receives a 2027 seventh. |
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| Oct. 1 | Joey Porter Jr. PIT receives a 2028 second and a conditional 2027 sixth. |
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| Sept. 28 | J.J. McCarthy MIN receives a 2027 fifth-round pick. |
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How do NFL futures prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade Yes/No event contracts. A contract trading at 12% implies roughly a 12% chance of that outcome. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if not, it settles at $0.
Futures contracts can be sold before they settle, so a position on a Super Bowl or division market doesn't have to be held until the end of the season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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