Best NFL Picks Today

Isaiah Likely has been productive no matter who's playing quarterback for the Giants, averaging 56 receiving yards and clearing 50 in five of eight games. His best outing? Eleven catches for 94 yards against Washington in Week 5. The Commanders have allowed 68.75 receiving yards per game to tight ends, fourth-most in football.

The Patriots’ thinning pass protection has thrown quarterback Drake Maye into the fire. He’s been sacked nine times in the last three games, with four coming on Sunday. Detroit’s defense is second overall in sacks (27) and ranks among the Top 10 teams in pressure rate and pass rush win rate at EPSN. The Lions lit up the scoreboard for 164 points in the opening five games but have put up tallies of 19, 19 and 20 points in their last three outings. However, we’re still seeing Detroit draw tall totals, like the one in Munich. 

This yardage prop is in play up to 52% because a breakout game is coming for Rice. He’s recorded a respectable 102 receiving yards over the past two weeks despite an unsustainably low 1.3 aDOT. Rice paced the NFL in yards after the catch per reception with an 8.1 mark last season, and his 8.2 YAC/REC this year is right in line for the game-breaking playmaker. Plus, with the Falcons allowing nine wideouts to top 60 receiving yards through nine games, the matchup checks out for Rice, too.

With the Jets allowing the highest EPA per dropback across the past four weeks, my first Week 10 click is on the Bills. New York is a candidate to unload veterans ahead of the trade deadline, and Buffalo heads into Monday Night Football in Week 9 averaging the most points per game while ranking third in offensive DVOA. The Bills pull away in Week 10, and I suspect this number will dip closer to a double-digit spread by Sunday.

The Panthers’ recent path has been loaded with tough teams, losing to Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and Denver. In fact, Carolina’s first half of the schedule has featured some heavy hitters and this trip to the Big East offers a change in gear. The New Orleans Saints’ defense sits 30th in DVOA, 30th in opponent success rate, and more importantly third last in QB pressures. That gives this Panthers’ pass protection a breather after allowing Bryce Young to feel the heat at a league-high clip.

The Browns are an elite pass defense, according to the holy trinity of advanced analytics. They’re No. 9 in EPA allowed per dropback and Pass Defense DVOA, while allowing the sixth lowest success rate per passing play to opponents. Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud takes a crack at Cleveland’s air defenses in Week 10. He’s having a massive year so far, but his stats have been puffed up by piss-poor passing defenses and a cozy schedule. His career passer rating drops to 87.5 outside versus 98.8 in controlled climates, with his yards per attempt shrinking from 7.98 indoors to 6.68 outdoors.

The Rams returned Myles Garrett in Week 9, and this stop unit instantly got a shot in the arm, scoring four sacks and two takeaways. Los Angeles took down Washington 20-13 and stayed well short of the closing total of 47.5 points. The Arizona Cardinals aren’t providing much push back. They’re fine with either Gardner Minshew or rookie Carson Beck under center after trading Jacoby Brissett last week. That’s asking a lot of those QBs, considering the porous pass protection.

Dallas’ defense isn’t ready for the 49ers’ jelly, and this Kyle Shanahan vs. Brian Schottenheimer/Christian Parker matchup is about as one-sided as Godzilla vs. Bambi. San Francisco could also have some WRs back in action just in time to shred the Cowboys’ Swiss-cheese secondary.

The Steelers are rested and ready, presenting the stiffest opposition the Bengals have drawn since their streak started. Cincinnati has sliced through the melted-butter stop units of Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee and Atlanta – all of which rank 22nd or worst in EPA allowed per play since Week 5. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has settled into its defensive schemes under new coordinator Patrick Graham. The Steelers sat 23rd in opponent success rate (46%) in the opening four games and have trimmed that allowance to 38.7% during this winning run.