Expert NFL Prop Picks: Week 9

Week 9 brings another full slate of NFL action, and our Week 9 prop picks highlight player markets worth targeting across Sunday's games and Monday night's matchup.

Check out all of our NFL picks and see what our analysts are backing this week.

Week 9 prop picks at a glance

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Expert NFL prop picks

Bengals vs. Falcons

• Kickoff: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
• TV: NFL Network
• Analyst: Jason Logan

Prop pick: Tee Higgins 75+ receiving yards

Bengals receiver Tee Higgins is coming off a monster day versus Tennessee, drawing 11 targets for 10 catches and 155 yards.

Higgins could be the best WR2 in the league, with Ja’Marr Chase drawing the ire of the secondary and leaving the 6-foot-4 Higgins with softer matchups. He gets a perfect pairing against Atlanta in Madrid.

The Falcons rank 24th in DVOA defending WR2s, allowing an average of 54.6 yards per game to the position. This secondary is also running a high rate of man coverage (10th most), and Higgins currently rates as the No. 1 WR versus man at PFF.

Projections for Higgins range from 74 to 88 yards on Sunday morning, with most models north of 80 yards. My number comes out to 81.5 receiving yards in Madrid.

Check out our full Bengals vs. Falcons predictions.

Cowboys vs. Colts

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Jason Logan

Prop pick: Tyler Warren 40+ receiving yards

Warren has jumped up the pass-catching pecking order since Pierce went down in Week 2. In his four games since then, Warren has drawn nine or more targets in three of those contests.

While Warren had only 18 yards receiving on four catches in the loss to Jacksonville last week, he posted gains of 41, 55, and 83 yards in the three games prior.

His low Week 8 result is slimming his receiving yards prop for Sunday’s matchup despite facing a much softer pass defense.

The Cowboys have allowed rival TEs to go for 37, 48, and 72 yards the last three contests and average more than 52 yards against from the position on the season.

Warren’s projections are very bullish, with all consulted models coming in well above 40 yards, with most north of 50. My number sits at 52 receiving yards for the Colts tight end.

Check out our full Cowboys vs. Colts predictions.

Browns vs. Saints

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Neil Parker

Prop pick: Juwan Johnson 30+ receiving yards

This prop is in play up to 54% because Saints tight end Juwan Johnson is set for an uptick in volume after garnering only five targets across two games leading into the bye week.

He caught 21 of 27 targets for 232 yards through the first four games of the season, and the Browns have also been susceptible through the air against the position with seven different tight ends recording 30 or more receiving yards against Cleveland this season.

I also value that Shough sports a high-end 129.2 NFL passer rating when targeting Johnson this season.

Check out our full Browns vs. Saints predictions.

Rams vs. Commanders

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Tom Oldfield

Prop pick: Jayden Daniels Over 37.5 rushing yards

When the L.A. front seven flushes Daniels from the pocket, the Commanders will still have chances to move the chains. That’s a testament to Daniels’ elite rushing, and he’s recorded a run of at least 14 yards in five of his six outings this year, while averaging 47.2 rushing yards per game in 2026.

Injuries have also dented Washington’s running back depth (Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols), so OC David Blough may also sprinkle in a few designed runs for Daniels in key spots. This prop is playable up to 39.5 yards and 56%.

Check out our full Rams vs. Commanders predictions.

Jets vs. Chiefs

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Ed Scimia

Prop pick: Kenneth Walker III 110+ rushing + receiving yards

Walker does most of his damage on the ground, but he's no stranger to picking up yards in the passing game, either. He's caught four balls in each of his last two games and has 131 receiving yards this season to add to the 770 he's picked up on the ground.

New York's inability to stop the passing game makes me like this prop for Walker, but it's also a matter of his rushing numbers. Walker is averaging 110 yards per game on the ground alone this season, and while his last two games have been less productive, he is a monster when Kansas City wins — which I fully expect this Sunday.

I'm backing Walker to get 110+ combined yards at up to 60%.

Check out our full Jets vs. Chiefs predictions.

Lions vs. Dolphins

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Neil Parker

Prop pick: Jared Goff 22+ completions

I recommend this Over up to 56% because Goff’s 2.74 time to throw is the longest mark in six seasons with Detroit, and his 51.1% success rate ranks in 89th percentile of QBs this season.

Plus, in addition to the noted Miami shortcomings against the pass, the Dolphins also rank 23rd in PFF coverage grade and generate pressure at the 12th-lowest rate in the league while allowing the highest dropback success rate.

Check out our full Lions vs. Dolphins predictions.

Broncos vs. Panthers

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Shawn Krest

Prop pick: Bryce Young 1+ interceptions

Bryce Young has thrown at least one interception in every Panthers loss this season and none in any of the team’s wins. He’s thrown interceptions in 11 of his 13 losses over the last two seasons, and Young has registered 33 picks in the 35 career starts the signal-caller has lost.

After throwing just two picks in his first 211 passes of the season, he’s thrown three in the previous 58. Young tends to force things when he’s trailing or running for his life, both of which could happen Sunday.

Check out our full Broncos vs. Panthers predictions.

Giants vs. Eagles

• Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Neil Parker

Prop pick: Malachi Fields 30+ receiving yards

This prop is in play up to 53%.

Fields caught four of five targets for 83 yards in Week 7, and he’s up to a respectable 10 receptions for 174 yards with a team-high 7.0 yards after the catch per reception over his past four games.

As noted, the Eagles pass defense has fallen off the map, so Fields is set to clear this low total.

Check out our full Giants vs. Eagles predictions.

Texans vs. Chargers

• Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Analyst: Quinn Allen

Prop pick: Woody Marks Over 59.5 rushing yards

Play up to 57%.

With David Montgomery still injured, Woody Marks will be RB1 once again on Sunday, and I expect him to flourish. Even though the Texans do not run the football a whole lot, they could resort to putting the ball in Marks' hands more.

LA is stingy against the pass, but they're 23rd against the run, allowing 124.6 yards per game on the ground. Marks has logged at least 15 carries in each game since Montgomery was injured, and he's cleared this total in two of those games. In the other, he still finished with 56 yards, just a tad below the threshold.

He'll be a force at SoFi.

Check out our full Texans vs. Chargers predictions.

Raiders vs. 49ers

• Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Neil Parker

Prop pick: Kirk Cousins 2+ passing touchdowns

This Cousins prop is in play up to 54%.

In addition to the Niners' dip in efficiency against the pass, San Fran has allowed five passing touchdowns across their past two games. Cousins has thrown for multiple touchdowns in seven of eight games, and he’s thrown 23 red-zone passes over the past three weeks.

Because San Francisco ranks fourth in rush defense DVOA and has only allowed three rushing touchdowns, I expect Cousins and the Raiders will need to attack through the air to score.

Check out our full Raiders vs. 49ers predictions.

Packers vs. Patriots

• Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Geoff Clark

Prop pick: Rhamondre Stevenson 25+ receiving yards

Rhamondre Stevenson's 25+ receiving yards prop is tradable up to 55%.

This correlates with my Green Bay +3.5 pick. I'm expecting the Packers to take away Drake Maye's deep ball and force him to check down, with Stevenson benefiting from RB TreVeyon Henderson being ruled out.

Stevenson is New England's third-most targeted pass-catcher, partly because of injuries to the Patriots' WR corps. That's still an issue this week, with Brown out Sunday and Romeo Doubs on IR. Stevenson should have plenty of opportunities to clear 25 receiving yards. Pro Football Reference

Check out our full Packers vs. Patriots predictions.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks

• Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Analyst: Sam Farley

Prop pick: Tyler Allgeier 50+ rushing yards

Tyler Allgeier broke out in the win over the Cowboys, rushing for a season-high 147 yards on just 11 carries. It can't be overstated how much better the ground game, and Allgeier, looked with Minshew under center.

During his time on the field, Allgeier managed three runs of 10+ yards, more than 25% of the 11 that the entire offense had made all season up until that point. With Jeremiyah Love now on IR, a lot of carries open up for Allgeier.

Check out our full Cardinals vs. Seahawks predictions.

Buccaneers vs. Bears

• Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
• Analyst: Jason Logan

Prop pick: Caleb Williams 250+ passing yards (No)

Williams' passing prop for SNF spikes as high as 250 yards at some markets, despite what the Buccaneers bring to the table.

Not only is Tampa Bay one of the stingiest pass defenses during its recent winning streak, but the Bucs’ run-centric offense is hogging the ball and not letting opposing passers get off the bench.

They’ve handed off on 53.5% of snaps in the last four games, utilizing a pace that would make molasses shake its head, burning the fourth most seconds per play clock. That’s put Tampa No. 1 in time of possession — a stat the Bears have leaned on heavily this season.

When Williams does get a touch, he’ll have a tough time beating the Bucs deep. They give up the seventh fewest “explosive” passes and force foes into an average depth of target of 6.6 yards — an NFL-low.

Projections for Williams are conservative, with the majority coming in short of 250 passing yards with a basement forecast of 202 yards from one respected source. My number bubbles down to 237 yards from the Bears QB.

Check out our full Buccaneers vs. Bears predictions.

Bills vs. Vikings

• Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Analyst: Josh Inglis

Prop pick: T.J. Hockenson Over 39.5 receiving yards

The Minnesota tight end projects for 48.8 receiving yards Monday night. The likely passing-game script offers multiple paths to get there, including potential garbage-time production in an indoor game that should boost passing volume and efficiency.

In Wentz's two starts for Minnesota this season, the tight end was the No. 2 option in the passing game, finishing second in receiving yards in both games, including that ugly 9-3 outdoor matchup in Chicago.

Buffalo ranks in the Bottom 10 in yardage allowed to opposing tight ends, and Hockenson has virtually no competition for snaps, playing 82% of them last week.

Check out our full Bills vs. Vikings predictions.

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