My Buccaneers vs. Bears prediction takes the wind out of Chicago's sails after it put the NFL on notice last week.
The Bears traded for All-Pro defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons, then thumped the defending-champion Seahawks in Seattle on Monday night. Their public perception couldn't be more positive, which is why they're laying 6.5 points at home against Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football.
With respect to the Buccaneers' recent turnaround, I'm taking those points. Here are my NFL picks on Sunday, Nov. 8, featuring a fade of Bears QB Caleb Williams.
Buccaneers vs Bears prediction: Buccaneers +6.5
If you check out my weekly NFL underdogs column, you'll see I'm taking the points with the visiting pirates and making the Chicago Bears' 8-0 ATS run in prime time walk the plank.
Chicago is great, but it has a short week to rest and be ready for a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team playing some of the best two-way football in the NFL.
After a bumpy start, due to high-variance occurrences, the Bucs have won three of their last four (the loss was in OT) in nasty fashion.
Todd Bowles' defense has stepped up during this span, throwing ice on some of the league's top passing playbooks and rating atop the sexy defensive measurements, like EPA and DVOA.
On offense, the ground game has ripped up the turf with a top-5 rushing attack, chowing down on TOP like Malnati's deep dish. Tampa Bay has dominated the football for an average of 35:30 during this stretch, making rival offenses spectators.
The look-ahead line for this SNF pairing was Bucs +5.5 before the Bears' big win on MNF. It has since jumped to +6.5 with the market still pricing Tampa as a losing team. Given the situational squeeze for Chicago and the Bucs' current form, I'm grabbing this inflated spread with the dog.
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Buccaneers vs Bears combo
Tampa Bay isn't getting any respect as the market moves toward Chicago. But the Bears are on a short week and facing a Bucs team playing great two-way football, especially on defense.
Baker Mayfield doesn't shrink from the moment. We've seen him make plays in big games, and with the Chicago blitz on his heels, Mayfield runs one into the end zone on SNF.
Caleb Williams won't get his normal run on Sunday night with the Bucs' rushing attack putting this game in mud. When he does throw, Williams faces a Tampa Bay pass defense that has already shut down some top air attacks. Projections sit as low as 202 yards from the Chicago QB.
Buccaneers vs Bears combo
- Buccaneers +6.5
- Baker Mayfield anytime touchdown
- Caleb Williams 250+ passing yards - No
TOP PICK
Buccaneers vs Bears player prop: Caleb Williams 250+ passing yards - No
Williams' passing prop for SNF spikes as high as 250 yards in some markets, despite what the Buccaneers bring to the table.
Not only is Tampa Bay one of the stingiest pass defenses during its recent winning streak, but the Bucs' run-centric offense is hogging the ball and not letting opposing passers get off the bench.
They've handed off on 53.5% of snaps in the last four games, utilizing a pace that would make molasses shake its head, burning the fourth-most seconds per play on the clock. That's put Tampa No. 1 in time of possession — a stat the Bears have leaned on heavily this season.
When Williams does get a touch, he'll have a tough time beating the Bucs deep. They give up the seventh-fewest explosive passes and force foes into an average depth of target of 6.6 yards — an NFL low.
Projections for Williams are conservative, with the majority coming in short of 250 passing yards, with a basement forecast of 202 yards from one respected source. My number bubbles down to 237 yards from the Bears QB.
COVERS INTEL: Williams is great no matter the coverage but does see a dip in production for his career versus zone. Bowles rolls out zone blankets at the ninth-highest frequency, holding rival QBs to the seventh-lowest completion rate.Buccaneers vs Bears touchdown scorer: Baker Mayfield
The Bucs’ ground-and-pound approach has garnered all the attention the past few weeks, but let’s not sleep on quarterback Baker Mayfield when the chips are down.
Mayfield is another week healed from his thumb injury and has a knack for pulling off crazy plays when the pressure is on.
Chicago blitzes at a high rate, and that will force Mayfield to move around the pocket and potentially take off, especially if he sniffs the goal line. He’s the 10th-rated QB when running versus the blitz at PFF.
Mayfield scored in a wild Week 1 opener with Cincinnati in September, rushed for a touchdown in a battle with Buffalo last year, and struck for six points in NFC heavyweight bouts with Philadelphia and Detroit in 2024.
His touchdown forecasts for SNF vary, ranging from 9% to 25%. Given his history in big games and the fact that Chicago has already allowed three rushing touchdowns to QBs, I’m taking a flyer on Baker in Week 9.
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Buccaneers vs Bears market trends
The public likes the Bears, straight up anyway. The home favorites look like a solid pick to defend Soldier Field tonight against visiting Tampa.
- Top picks: 13-8, +3.19 units
- Combos: 0-21, -21.0 units
Buccaneers vs Bears odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Buccaneers +6.5 | Bears -6.5
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (50%) | Under 47.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers 29% | Bears 71%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Buccaneers vs Bears weather
Sunday night looks perfect for football. No rain, with winds topping out at 10 mph gusts and temperatures dipping into the mid-40s at Soldier Field.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Buccaneers vs Bears trend to know
Tampa Bay has posted a 3-7 Over/Under record when closing as an underdog of six or more points since 2020. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Bears.
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How to watch Buccaneers vs Bears
| Location | Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Buccaneers vs Bears latest injuries
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