Eastern Conference opposites face off, as the second-place Boston Celtics head to Fiserv Forum on Sunday, Nov. 8, to face the last-place Milwaukee Bucks.
Milwaukee kept the game close in the first meeting of the season, but my Celtics vs. Bucks predictions pick Boston to cover the spread as the large road favorite thanks to the return of Jayson Tatum.
I’m backing the Over on Tatum’s points and assists lines as part of my NBA picks, and doing the same for rookie Brayden Burries’ PRA line as Boston wins comfortably in a low-scoring matchup.
TOP PICK
Celtics vs Bucks prediction: Celtics -12.5
The Milwaukee Bucks covered a 12.5-point spread at TD Garden on Wednesday with a seven-point loss, but Jayson Tatum sat that one out.
With Tatum back in action, I expect the Boston Celtics to win this one easily, and I’ll trade this spread at -12.5 up to 55%. Tatum leads Boston in points, rebounds, and assists, and the Celtics’ net rating fell 2.8 points without him.
The Celtics rank in the top six in offensive and defensive rating, while the Bucks rank 27th in both categories. At 10.3, Boston is second in Net Rating, and Milwaukee is 27th at -12.
Boston has outscored opponents by 6.5 points on the road, and the Celtics’ 7.4 road net rating is seventh-best in the Association.
COVERS INTEL: Homecourt hasn’t been an advantage for the Bucks this season. Milwaukee ranks 29th in home point differential at -14 per game. Milwaukee sits in the bottom six in offensive and defensive rating at home, and it also ranks 29th with a -13.7 net rating.
Celtics vs Bucks combo
I’ll trade this total down to 219.5. The Celtics and Bucks have hit the game total Under in eight of their last nine head-to-head matchups, and I expect the trend to continue Sunday. Milwaukee’s offense ranks 20th in scoring at home (110.6), and Boston ranks second in points surrendered on the road (101.8).
Tatum is averaging 27.9 points per game, and he’s reached 25-plus in four of his last five appearances. Boston’s superstar forward has found success against Milwaukee, dropping 25-plus in two of his last three matchups with the Bucks. Milwaukee’s bottom-five defense won’t have any answers for Tatum, and I’ll trade this scoring line up to 25.5 points
Celtics vs Bucks combo
- Celtics -12.5
- Under 221.5
- Jayson Tatum Over 24.5 points
Celtics vs Bucks player props
Celtics player prop: Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 assists
Tatum’s assists line is trading at 5.5 or 6.5 across most markets, but I’m confident enough in his playmaking amid this favorable matchup to trade it up to 7.5 on Polymarket.
He's averaging a career-high eight assists per game, but a huge outing isn't inflating that number. He’s been consistent with four games of 8-plus assists, and three more with seven and one with six.
Tatum ranks sixth leaguewide in assists, and his 40.5 assist percentage ranks fourth among players averaging 30-plus minutes per game. He gets the ball in his hands a lot, as his 33.4 Usage Rate is the highest of his career.
Milwaukee has allowed the fifth-most assists, setting Tatum up nicely here
Bucks player prop: Brayden Burries Over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists
Trade to 20.5.
The rookie averaged just 13.8 PRA across his first six games of the season. But in three games as a starter, he’s posted PRA totals of 19, 17, and 38.
Boston’s defensive attention should be on Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kel’el Ware, giving Brayden Burries clean scoring opportunities.
The Celtics' defense can be exploited on the glass, as they rank 15th in rebound percentage (49.6) and 16th in rebounds allowed (44.3). Burries is a strong rebounding guard, and he's averaging 8.3 boards across his last three.
- Top picks: 4-11, -7.16 units
- Combos: 0-15, -15.00 units
- Props: 11-17, -6.38 units
Celtics vs Bucks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Celtics -12.5 | Bucks +12.5
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
- Moneyline: Celtics 87% | Bucks 14%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Celtics vs Bucks trend
The Under has hit during each of the past five Celtics games. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Celtics vs Bucks
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wis. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026 |
| Tip off | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Boston, Bucks+ |
Celtics vs Bucks latest injuries
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