Tom Brady will be in the booth for his former team's Week 9 matchup, and the action at Gillette Stadium promises plenty of drama on the field too as the New England Patriots host the Green Bay Packers.
With New England laying 3.5 points as home favorites and the total set at 44.5 points, my top Packers vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks back Green Bay's relentless pass defense to steal the spotlight, keeping this affair close enough for the road underdogs to cover. It all gets started at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX.
TOP PICK
Packers vs Patriots prediction today: Packers +3.5
I'm locking in the Green Bay Packers +3.5, down to +2.5, because they have better net early-down EPA per play and a higher quarterback-pressure rate differential than the New England Patriots, and I like this matchup for Green Bay's defense.
According to RBSDM.com, the Packers rank third in weighted defensive EPA per dropback. Drake Maye struggled against the Seahawks (fifth), Steelers (sixth), and Jaguars (fourth), completing just 63.8% of his passes with one touchdown and six interceptions.
Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon also gets extra prep time for a New England offense without wide receiver A.J. Brown and possibly without Mack Hollins and tight end Hunter Henry. Green Bay limits explosives, forcing Maye to work the ball methodically downfield, where we've already seen him make costly mistakes.
COVERS INTEL: Green Bay's zone-heavy, split-safety defensive approach closely resembles Seattle's defense, which troubled Maye in Week 1. With elite safeties Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams disguising coverages, Maye could face another difficult afternoon.
Packers vs Patriots combo
I expect Green Bay to dictate the terms defensively, but that doesn't mean the Packers need to win outright for me to cash.
New England can move the chains without producing explosive plays, which helps running back Rhamondre Stevenson pile up receiving yards while keeping the game within one possession.
Meanwhile, Green Bay doesn't need a monster offensive performance, either. One well-executed red-zone possession could be enough for tight end Tucker Kraft to find pay dirt.
The beauty of this angle is that I don't need either quarterback to light up the scoreboard. In fact, a relatively ugly, low-scoring game could work perfectly fine for all three legs.
Packers vs Patriots combo
- Tucker Kraft anytime touchdown
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 24.5 receiving yards
- Packers +3.5
Packers vs Patriots touchdown scorer: Tucker Kraft
Tucker Kraft's anytime touchdown prop is good up to 30%.
New England has excellent outside cornerbacks, but the middle of its defense is vulnerable in coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, three of the Patriots' four starting linebackers and safeties have failing coverage grades.
Kraft was enjoying a career year before tearing his ACL around this time last season. He hasn't quite regained that form, but he's still a Pro Bowl-caliber tight end. With New England stronger on the outside than over the middle, I like Kraft's chances of finding the end zone.
Packers vs Patriots player prop: Rhamondre Stevenson 25+ receiving yards
Rhamondre Stevenson's 25+ receiving yards prop is tradable up to 55%.
This correlates with my Green Bay +3.5 pick. I'm expecting the Packers to take away Drake Maye's deep ball and force him to check down, with Stevenson benefiting from RB TreVeyon Henderson being ruled out.
Stevenson is New England's third-most targeted pass-catcher, partly because of injuries to the Patriots' WR corps. That's still an issue this week, with Brown out Sunday and Romeo Doubs on IR. Stevenson should have plenty of opportunities to clear 25 receiving yards.
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Packers vs Patriots market trends
Here is how trusted traders are dealing on today's matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Packers vs. Patriots prediction.
- Top picks: 9-14, -5.83 units
- Combos: 4-19, -1.93 units
Packers vs Patriots odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Packers +3.5 | Patriots -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (54%) | Under 44.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Packers 41% | Patriots 64%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Packers vs Patriots weather
Temperatures in Foxborough on Sunday will be in the mid-50s, with an 11 mph wind and no chance of rain.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Packers vs Patriots trend to know
Green Bay is 5-0-1 against the spread in its past six games as an underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Patriots.
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How to watch Packers vs Patriots
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Packers vs Patriots latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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