Jeff Capel may be trying to save his job by bringing in a new coaching staff, but my Penn State vs. Pitt prediction says Mike Rhoades' new system is worth trusting.
The Nittany Lions finally have veteran talent coming in through the transfer portal, which is why my college basketball picks have Penn State keeping this one close in Philly.
TOP PICK
Who will win Penn State vs Pitt: Penn State +2.5
Both sides have completely redone rosters, but the Penn State Nittany Lions have my full attention. The reason? Head coach Mike Rhoades finally stopped trying to build through young recruits and went after veteran players.
However, he still returns Ivan Juric, who should take a massive step forward, and Josh Reed, who averaged 11.5 ppg and 4.1 rpg for the Nittany Lions last season.
This year, they also have a rising star freshman (how ironic) in Roko Prkacin from Croatia. Through two games, he's led the team in scoring while averaging 6.0 rpg and 2.5 apg.
On the other end, the Pittsburgh Panthers' head coach kicked his brother and much of last year's staff to the curb, so there's plenty of change surrounding the Panthers as Jeff Capel tries to save his tailpipe.
I like the dog in this spot. If you're feeling frisky, take them to win outright.
COVERS INTEL: The 23-year-old Roko Prkacin has spent the last eight years playing professional basketball overseas in Europe. He brings a high basketball IQ and should help Penn State clean up the mess it made of things a year ago.
Penn State vs Pitt Over/Under pick: Under 154.5
A year ago, both teams ranked in the bottom 100 in pace. They should play at a much slower tempo now that they are facing top-120 teams instead of opponents ranked in the 200s and 300s, per Bart Torvik.
On top of that, both teams are being led by freshmen, and this will be their first true test. If they aren't playing their best basketball, this game could stay well below 154.5.
The Nittany Lions haven't been shooting from deep at a high level to kick off the season, connecting on fewer than 24% of their attempts. If they fall behind and need to rely on the 3-point shot to get back into the game, they could be in trouble.
Penn State vs Pitt combo
I'm backing a team that has finally come to terms with the fact that its old ways weren't working, bringing in a fresh, veteran roster to take on a team whose coach is trying to save his job. I love the Nittany Lions here, along with the Under.
If you pair Penn State +3.5 with the Under 154.5, you get a delectable 3.66x payout.
Penn State vs Pitt combo
- Penn State +2.5
- Under 154.5
- Top picks: 13-7, +6.77 units
Penn State vs Pitt odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Penn State +2.5 | Pitt -2.5
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 | Under 154.5
- Moneyline: Penn State 57% | Pitt 44%
For the full slate of college basketball matchups, check out our college basketball odds board!
Penn State vs Pitt trend
The Under is 4-0 in the Panthers' last four games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends.
How to watch Penn State vs Pitt
| Location | The Palestra, Philadelphia, Pa. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026 |
| Tip off | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Penn State vs Pitt latest injuries
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