The Detroit Lions are sizable road favorites over the Miami Dolphins ahead of their 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, Nov. 8.
My top Lions vs. Dolphins prediction and NFL picks expect Detroit to show off on both sides of the ball to cover the number in this Week 9 clash.
TOP Pick
Lions vs Dolphins prediction: Lions -6.5
I am comfortable laying the points to -7 with the Detroit Lions in Week 9.
Detroit has tidied up on defense since its Week 6 bye with the sixth-ranked defensive success rate and three-and-out percentage.
Offensively, there are no concerns with the Lions ranking eighth in offensive DVOA and fifth in EPA per play while scoring the third-most points per game (29.0) for the season.
The Miami Dolphins have also emerged from their own Week 6 bye to win outright as a road underdog over the New York Jets before covering the spread in a 24-19 home loss to the New England Patriots.
Still, Miami has allowed the fifth-highest EPA per play and offensive success rate during the two-game stretch, and the Dolphins have surrendered the ninth-most points per game (25.9) for the season.
Simply put, Detroit is better on both sides of the ball.
COVERS INTEL: The Lions are fourth in EPA per dropback, and the Dolphins have allowed the highest EPA per dropback.
Lions vs Dolphins combo
Pair Detroit's defensive improvements with Miami using the most play clock time at home in neutral situations, and we have a clear recipe for the Under. This is already the highest total of the year for the Dolphins by a considerable margin, and they’ve played to the Under in seven of their past 10 home games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI).
Turning to Lions quarterback Jared Goff, he’s completed 22 or more passes in five of seven games, and the Dolphins have allowed 23 or more completions in three of their past four games.
Lions vs Dolphins combo
- Lions -6.5
- Under 50.5
- Jared Goff 22+ completions
Lions vs Dolphins touchdown scorer: Amon-Ra St. Brown
It’s been four games since Lions No. 1 wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has found the end zone, and he’s also failed to garner a red-zone target in consecutive weeks.
Considering St. Brown has scored double-digit touchdowns each of the past three years and caught five touchdown passes through the first three weeks of the season, I like the go-to weapon to find pay dirt on Sunday.
Plus, even with the dip in looks inside the 20 the past two weeks, his 16 red-zone targets still rank in the 98th percentile of wide receivers.
- Top picks: 47-42, +6.13 units
- Combos: 1-18, -12.0 units
Lions vs Dolphins odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Lions -6.5 | Dolphins +6.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (49%) | Under 50.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Lions 75% | Dolphins 26%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Lions vs Dolphins weather
The forecast calls for mostly sunny skies and a warm kickoff temperature around 82 degrees, with light 7 mph northeast winds and less than a 10% chance of precipitation Sunday afternoon.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Lions vs Dolphins trend to know
The Dolphins have hit the game total Under in seven of their last 10 games at home (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Dolphins.
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How to watch Lions vs Dolphins
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Fla. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Lions vs Dolphins latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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