My NFL moneyline picks are looking to keep climbing in Week 9, a 15-game slate that includes the Bengals and Falcons overseas in Madrid.
I’m starting by backing the Jacksonville Jaguars to bury the Lamar-less Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football.
Let's dive right into my latest NFL picks.
My NFL moneyline record is 73-48 this season for +0.19 units.
NFL moneyline picks for Week 9
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jaguars vs  Ravens |
82% |
 Bengals vs  Falcons |
61% |
 Browns vs  Saints |
41% |
 Cowboys vs  Colts |
70% |
 Broncos vs  Panthers |
57% |
 Lions vs  Dolphins |
75% |
 Rams vs  Commanders |
69% |
 Giants vs  Eagles |
63% |
 Jets vs  Chiefs |
81% |
 Texans vs  Chargers |
67% |
 Cardinals vs  Seahawks |
85% |
 Packers vs  Patriots |
40% |
 Raiders vs  49ers |
81% |
 Buccaneers vs  Bears |
72% |
 Bills vs  Vikings |
63% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 9 NFL moneyline picks
Jaguars vs. Ravens: Jaguars
Baltimore is staring at a QB3 situation on a short week, with Lamar Jackson headed to IR and Tyler Huntley out for the season.
The Ravens are 2-6 against the spread this season (0-3 ATS at home) and just got boat-raced 36-10 by Buffalo.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville is averaging 28.0 points per game and fresh off a 42-7 demolition of the Colts. This one should be over early.
Check out our full Jaguars vs. Ravens predictions!
Bengals vs. Falcons: Bengals
Joe Burrow just aired it out for six passing touchdowns against Tennessee, and Cincinnati has prevailed in three meetings with Atlanta.
With Michael Penix Jr. coming off an ugly four-interception performance, I'll trust Burrow to keep the momentum going in Madrid.
Browns vs. Saints: Browns
Cleveland's 27-6 loss to Pittsburgh was fueled by turnovers (two lost fumbles in the first quarter alone), while the Saints are 0-4 at home.
With the Saints' offensive line remaining depleted, the wrong team is favored in NOLA.
Cowboys vs. Colts: Cowboys
I spent Halloween watching several horror movies, but the real scare came the next day when my Colts were blown out 42-7 by Jacksonville.
This team has completely given up on Shane Steichen, and Daniel Jones has come crashing back down to earth, entering Week 9 ranked 33rd in EPA per dropback.
As bad as Dallas’ stop unit has been, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense will have a field day in Indy.
Broncos vs. Panthers: Broncos
Denver’s 6-2 record is as misleading as it gets. The Broncos and Panthers are dead even in net EPA per play, while Bo Nix’s success rate ranks among the lowest in the league.
Carolina is at home with three extra days of rest after playing on TNF, so I'm siding with the home dogs.
Lions vs. Dolphins: Lions
Detroit’s offense ranks sixth in EPA per play and now faces a Dolphins defense that ranks just 31st in third-down efficiency.
Along with the return of Pro Bowl safety Brian Branch, Detroit’s defense has also begun to stabilize, allowing an average of just 17.7 points per game during its three-game winning streak.
This is the biggest mismatch on the slate.
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Rams vs. Commanders: Rams
Don't get too excited about Washington's prime-time win over Philly. The Eagles have lost six straight, and the Commanders still rank in the bottom 10 in net EPA per play.
The Rams have a top-five defense and are riding back-to-back wins, so I'm rolling with L.A. on the road.
Giants vs. Eagles: Giants
Philly's losing streak has been capped off by a pathetic 10-point showing in D.C. (Tune in to 94WIP these days if you want a good laugh at the state of Eagles Nation.)
Fresh off a bye and facing a team in complete disarray, take the G-Men to prevail at the Linc.
Jets vs. Chiefs: Chiefs
Despite blowing a double-digit lead in Denver, the Chiefs offense still ranks third in the NFL in net EPA per play, while their defense has allowed a league-best 1.9 points per red-zone drive since Week 4.
Meanwhile, the Jets enter on a three-game skid after giving up 38 points at home to the Raiders. Expect KC to bounce back at Arrowhead.
Texans vs. Chargers: Texans
Houston may be 2–5, but in 2026, beating the Chargers takes little more than a pulse, especially against their senile head coach and a continually regressing Justin Herbert.
L.A. remains winless. Maybe this is finally the week Mike McDaniel gets canned?
Cardinals vs. Seahawks: Seahawks
Arizona burned me last week with that OT win over Dallas, but I’m not falling for it again. The Cardinals gave up 30 points in that game and still rank 29th in yards per play on offense.
Seattle got bullied by Chicago on Monday night, but this is a perfect get-right spot against a Cardinals defense surrendering a league-worst 29.8 points per game.
At this point, Drew Lock might be an upgrade over Sam Darnold.
Packers vs. Patriots: Packers
Green Bay gets three extra days of rest following Thursday's 27-19 win over Carolina, and the Packers have been the cleaner team, boasting a +4 turnover differential while allowing just 20.5 points per game.
Meanwhile, New England barely held off a 1-6 Dolphins team, escaping with just a five-point win. I'll take the Packers and the plus money here.
Raiders vs. 49ers: 49ers
The 49ers boast the league’s top offense by EPA, are coming off a bye, and face a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in points allowed per game (29.8).
While Kirk Cousins has played well, the talent disparity is too overwhelming to ignore.
Buccaneers vs. Bears: Bears
I love the Bucs' ground attack, but the Bears are coming off a statement win in Seattle, and the addition of Jeffery Simmons has this defense looking for real.
Chicago hasn't trailed in any of the three games since Caleb Williams returned from his hamstring injury, and I expect that trend to continue on SNF.
Bills vs. Vikings: Bills
An elite Bills offense against an elite Vikings defense is the toughest call of the week.
But the biggest difference is at quarterback: Josh Allen ranks third in EPA per dropback, while Kyler Murray sits 25th.
I'm siding with the former MVP to make the difference.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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