The New York Jets head into Week 7 as 4.5-point home favorites as they host the AFC East rival Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
The lines on Kalshi reflect a 67% win probability for New York, and my top Dolphins vs. Jets predictions and NFL picks lean on Gang Green to handle business and cover against a winless Miami squad.
Read on for a complete breakdown of my expert NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 25.
TOP Pick
Dolphins vs Jets prediction today: Jets -4.5
Play up to 55%.
This is a favorable spot for Geno Smith to get the New York Jets back on track. The Miami Dolphins have surrendered points on 50% of opposing possessions, the highest rate in the NFL, while allowing 2.75 points per drive (31st).
With just four sacks in five games, the Dolphins could struggle to disrupt Smith, who's thrown seven TDs against just one interception. Omar Cooper Jr.'s return adds another dimension after his 103-yard outing against New England.
The other side of this matchup is just as concerning for Miami. The winless Dolphins average only 14.0 points per game, and Malik Willis has twice as many interceptions (four) as touchdowns (two).
Against a Jets defense giving up 20.3 ppg, I expect New York to create separation at home.
For a spread pick on every game, see our NFL picks against the spread for Week 7.
COVERS INTEL: New York blitzes on 37.4% of opposing dropbacks, sixth-most in the NFL, while Miami ranks 31st against the blitz. That mismatch supports Jets -4.5.
Dolphins vs Jets combo
I expect a Jets victory, but it won't be high-scoring. After all, New York is averaging just 18.7 ppg (27th in the NFL), and the Dolphins have scored 13 points or fewer in four of five contests.
The Jets were also 0-for-3 in the red zone in Week 6, and Miami is just 28th in red-zone conversion rate. With two inconsistent offenses, this will stay below 40.
I'll round out my combo with Smith, who I expect to thrive against a mediocre Dolphins pass defense. Miami allows a 76.6% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks and has surrendered an average of 226 passing yards per game.
Three of the five QBs they've faced have thrown for at least 225 yards, and Smith just threw for 252 yards against New England.
Dolphins vs Jets combo
- Jets moneyline
- Under 39.5
- Geno Smith Over 224.5 passing yards
Dolphins vs Jets player prop: Ollie Gordon II Over 49.5 rushing yards
Play up to 60%.
I'll shift over to Miami here with young running back Ollie Gordon. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy has been impressive, averaging five yards per carry this season.
With De'Von Achane out for the season, Gordon has every chance to cook, and he's done just that since Achane's injury. The 22-year-old has exploded for 88 and 100 yards in his last two games, scoring both times.
The Jets are 23rd in run defense, allowing a concerning 123 yards per game. With the Dolphins much more efficient on the ground, expect Miami to lean on Gordon, who shouldn't have any issues surpassing 50 yards.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
For more same-game parlays, see our NFL parlay and SGP picks.
Dolphins vs Jets touchdown scorer: Garrett Wilson
Play up to 45%.
Even though Cooper Jr. exploded for 103 yards last weekend, Garrett Wilson remains Smith's primary target. He's already registered three receiving touchdowns this season and has reeled in 35 catches on 48 targets.
Miami ranks 20th in the NFL in red-zone TD rate, allowing scores 63.64% of the time. While Wilson has only one red-zone touchdown, he has commanded 23.1% of New York's red-zone targets and converted his lone target inside the 10 into a touchdown.
Two of Wilson's TDs have been at MetLife, and the Dolphins have allowed an alarming 11 passing touchdowns in five games.
He's a serious candidate to find paydirt.
For more touchdown props, see our NFL anytime touchdown picks for Week 7.
- Top picks: 2-6, -3.08 units
- Combos: 0-6, -6.00
More Week 7 NFL picks and predictions
- NFL AI predictions for Week 7
- NFL picks against the spread for Week 7
- NFL moneyline picks for Week 7
- NFL anytime touchdown picks for Week 7
- NFL touchdown parlay for Week 7
- NFL picks and computer predictions
- Steelers vs. Saints prediction and picks
- Colts vs. Vikings prediction and picks
- Browns vs. Titans prediction and picks
- Giants vs. Texans prediction and picks
- Rams vs. Raiders prediction and picks
- Packers vs. Lions prediction and picks
Dolphins vs Jets odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Dolphins +4.5 | Jets -4.5
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 (49%) | Under 39.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Dolphins 34% | Jets 67%
See our NFL moneyline picks for every Week 7 game.
Follow the Dolphins vs. Jets market prices on Kalshi up to kickoff.
For the full slate of NFL matchups, see our NFL odds board.
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Dolphins vs Jets weather
The Dolphins and Jets should enjoy ideal football conditions at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures are expected to hover around 63°F at the 1 p.m. ET kickoff before climbing into the mid-60s. Sunshine is forecast throughout the game, with just a 2% chance of precipitation.
See our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Dolphins vs Jets trend to know
The Miami Dolphins have hit the team total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Jets, and see our NFL AI predictions for ATS picks and score projections on every Week 7 game.
or our BET99 promo code COVERS99 if you're in Canada.
How to watch Dolphins vs Jets
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J. |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Dolphins vs Jets latest injuries
See our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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