The Houston Texans return home to host the New York Giants in Week 7 following last weekend's international trip to London.
My top Giants vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks lean on two stellar defenses to set the tone, anticipating a low-scoring defensive battle that goes Under the 42.5 total at Reliant Stadium. The contest kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on FOX on Sunday, Oct. 25.
TOP Pick
Giants vs Texans prediction today: Under 42.5
Playable to 51%.
J.J. McCarthy had 243 passing yards in the fourth quarter last weekend against the Saints, but he entered the game with the Giants down 34-10 with 11:25 remaining.
New Orleans mostly played prevent defense late in the contest, but McCarthy still threw an interception and completed only 52.4% of his passes.
McCarthy nearly threw a second interception in the end zone on his second drive, then had two more interception-worthy throws on New York's subsequent drive.
McCarthy played 10 games in 2025, finishing with a negative EPA/play in seven. The three games with a positive EPA/play came against the Packers, Cowboys and Commanders, defenses that ranked 22nd, 30th and 31st in EPA/play allowed against the pass, respectively.
The Texans rank 8th in my schedule-adjusted defensive EPA/play ratings this season and 4th in schedule-adjusted defensive success rate. It's difficult to see the Giants scoring enough points to push this game over the total.
COVERS INTEL: C.J. Stroud leads all qualified quarterbacks with a 9.1% Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) in 2026. The Giants defense has allowed the third-highest CPOE to opposing quarterbacks through six weeks.
Giants vs Texans combo
Playable to 28%.
Teams returning from an international trip without a bye week to recover from the travel always raise some concern, but Houston is simply a far superior team to New York.
A Nico Collins touchdown and a J.J. McCarthy interception both correlate well with an outright Texans win for those looking for a combo in this matchup.
Giants vs Texans combo
- Texans moneyline
- Nico Collins 1+ touchdown
- J.J. McCarthy 1+ interception
For more same-game parlays, see our NFL parlay and SGP picks.
Giants vs Texans touchdown scorer: Nico Collins
Playable to 44%.
Cornerback Greg Newsome II has been ruled out against the Texans after missing Friday's practice.
He's played a team-high 286 snaps out wide for New York's defense in 2026, making him a big loss for a secondary unit that already ranks worse than the league average in EPA/play and success rate against the pass.
Nico Collins led the Texans in routes run and first-read targets in Week 6 against the Jaguars. This is an extremely favorable matchup for Collins, who has caught three touchdowns in four games this season.
For more touchdown props, see our NFL anytime touchdown picks for Week 7.
Giants vs Texans player prop: J.J. McCarthy Over 0.5 interceptions
Playable to 65%.
J.J. McCarthy had the second-highest interception-worthy throw rate among 33 qualified quarterbacks in 2025, behind only Tua Tagovailoa, who is no longer an NFL starter.
McCarthy had four interception-worthy throws in the fourth quarter last week against a Saints defense that mostly played backups in prevent. Facing a talented Houston defense, McCarthy is very likely to throw at least one interception.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 1-3, -2.00 units
- Combos: 1-3, +0.17 units
More Week 7 NFL picks and predictions
- NFL AI predictions for Week 7
- NFL picks against the spread for Week 7
- NFL moneyline picks for Week 7
- NFL anytime touchdown picks for Week 7
- NFL touchdown parlay for Week 7
- NFL picks and computer predictions
- Steelers vs. Saints prediction and picks
- Colts vs. Vikings prediction and picks
- Browns vs. Titans prediction and picks
- Rams vs. Raiders prediction and picks
- Packers vs. Lions prediction and picks
Giants vs Texans odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Giants +10.5 | Texans -10.5
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (52%) | Under 42.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Giants 20% | Texans 81%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, see our NFL odds board.
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Giants vs Texans weather
NRG Stadium has a retractable roof, but it's been closed for 91% of Texans home games since 2010. It's relatively safe to assume it will be closed again this weekend.
See our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Giants vs Texans trend to know
Under is 4-0-1 in Texans' last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Texans, and see our NFL AI predictions for totals and score projections on every Week 7 game.
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How to watch Giants vs Texans
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Giants vs Texans latest injuries
See our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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