NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks & TD Props: Week 7

Week 7 brings another slate of NFL touchdown props, and I'm looking beyond the usual big names to find value in the anytime TD market.

From red-zone roles and favorable matchups to under-the-radar scorers with plus-money upside, these are my favorite NFL anytime touchdown scorer picks for Week 7.

I’ll break down the fair prices and playable targets to show where the market may be missing the mark.

Find more NFL picks throughout the week.

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Game	Pick	Probability
PIT vs NO	Germie Bernard	30%
IND vs MIN	Aaron Jones	53%
MIA vs NYJ	Omar Cooper	20%
CIN vs BAL	Ja'Kobi Lane	23%
CLE vs TEN	Denzel Boston	32%
TB vs CAR	Tommy Tremble	24%
SF vs ATL	George Kittle	42%
NYG vs HOU	Isaiah Likely	28%
DEN vs ARI	JK Dobbins	47%
LAR vs LV	Colby Parkinson	20%
GB vs DET	Matthew Golden	38%
KC vs SEA	Patrick Mahomes	14%
DAL vs PHI	Dallas Goedert	32%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

Steelers vs Saints TD pick

Germie Bernard 30%

GRADE: 🟢

I can get behind DK Metcalf at 2.7x, but when Germie Bernard has Aaron Rodgers’ trust, is seeing double-digit targets, and is 60 points longer, I’ll take the rookie who caught the game-winning touchdown last week. I have his fair price at 3x for this indoor matchup against a defense allowing the fourth-most TDs per game (3.5).

The Steelers can put up points Sunday, and they can do it through the air. This offense has the second-highest pass rate in football (67% DB%) and the fifth-highest PROE. Even if Bernard isn’t getting downfield, that might actually be a good thing in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.

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Colts vs Vikings TD pick

Aaron Jones 53%

GRADE: 🟡

Aaron Jones is a buy for me up to 56.5% (1.77x) this week, coming off a bye and some much-needed rest. The Colts could struggle against the best defense in football, and Jones is coming off 25 carries in Week 5. The latest Colts vs. Vikings prediction also highlight Minnesota’s defensive edge. Jones has handled 11 of the Vikings’ 15 RB red-zone carries this season, including all of them in Week 5.

Jordan Mason is expected to be activated Saturday, but Jones should remain the starter after handling a heavy workload in his absence, averaging 21.3 carries and 92.5 rushing yards per game. Mason should be priced around 3x to score.

The Vikings are one of the few favorites of six or more points this weekend, and both the game script and the matchup look great for the lead back in this indoor offense.

Dolphins vs Jets TD pick

Omar Cooper 20%

GRADE: 🟢

It was a tough call between Omar Cooper and tight end Mason Taylor (5.5x), but the rookie receiver broke out in his return from IR last week, leading the Jets in targets (7), receptions (6), and yards (104) against the Patriots. He scored a TD at 6.5x and had another called back. The move to 4.8x isn’t nearly enough for a receiver capable of putting up 100 yards who now gets to face the Dolphins. I was hoping to get him at 3.5x, so seeing 4.8x was a nice surprise.

Adonai Mitchell shouldn’t be priced shorter than Cooper, especially coming off a finger injury. The Jets used 11 personnel on 68% of their snaps last week, so there’s room for Cooper even if Mitchell suits up.

Taylor is another good option at 5x or better, as he’s playing ahead of Kenyon Sadiq.

Bengals vs Ravens TD pick

Ja'Kobi Lane 23%

GRADE: 🟡

I have the fair price at 4x for what should be the No. 3 wide receiver role at home against the Bengals. See our Bengals vs. Ravens prediction for more on the matchup. Ja’Kobi Lane looked great in his return to the lineup last week, playing 87% of the snaps in three-receiver sets and seeing five targets. Rashod Bateman’s injury shouldn’t affect his role, as Devontez Walker picked up those snaps in heavier sets.

This offense could use a spark after an ugly loss, and Lane was a preseason standout who already has three red-zone targets on just eight total targets. This TD play looks even better if Lamar Jackson returns.

Browns vs Titans TD pick

Denzel Boston 32%

GRADE: 🟡

This is shaping up to be an ugly offensive game, and Denzel Boston is coming off a one-catch performance. However, he led the team in air yards again and owns a massive 45% air-yard share. Only three other receivers in football have a higher share than the Cleveland rookie.

The matchup gets easier Sunday, as the Titans allow the sixth-most yards to opposing wide receivers. Our Browns vs. Titans prediction expects a low-scoring game, making red-zone opportunities especially important. The possible return of Quinshon Judkins could help, too, after Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin failed to establish a threatening run game last week.

No top receiver should be priced longer than 2.8x against the Titans.

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Buccaneers vs Panthers TD pick

Tommy Tremble 24%

GRADE: 🟡 

Jalen Coker’s TD price has moved too much, but with Darren Waller’s snap share dropping and Tommy Tremble picking up the slack, a new TE1 could be emerging in a Carolina offense that ranks second in the NFL in PROE. I got Tremble at 4.1x and have his fair price at 3.9x.

Tremble played 70% of the snaps last week in a game that could look a lot like Week 7. He finished with two TDs and ranked third on the team in targets and receptions, with four of each. He also saw two red-zone targets, and the Panthers have four TE red-zone TDs this season — as many as their rushing TDs. Bryce Young has dropped back to pass on 58% of Carolina’s red-zone plays, adding to Tremble’s scoring upside.

49ers vs Falcons TD pick

George Kittle 42%

GRADE: 🟡

The 49ers aren’t an offense you want to get cute with. There are three big mouths to feed, and Mike Evans has shown he can play despite very little practice. I went off the board last week, but this week I’m taking George Kittle at 42%, with some places as high as 49%. My fair price sits halfway between those probabilities.

It’s an indoor game against the Falcons, who allow the fifth-most passing yards per game. Kittle led the 49ers with eight targets last week and could be the No. 1 option if Evans sits. His 10 red-zone targets lead the team and rank first among all TEs in football.

Having an MVP-caliber QB certainly helps his cause, as does ranking No. 3 on the Covers anytime touchdown value index.

Giants vs Texans TD pick

Isaiah Likely 28%

GRADE: 🟢

I’m going back to an old favorite in Week 7, backing Isaiah Likely to score at a fair price of 3x. There’s some uncertainty with the move to J.J. McCarthy, who targeted Likely on three of his 17 passes in Week 6. Still, the New York TE is the second-most targeted player at his position and was 100 points shorter last week.

The Texans’ defense is more legitimate than the Saints’, but Week 7 is indoors, and Houston has allowed 90 points at home through three games. Our Giants vs. Texans prediction breaks down the travel spot and defensive matchup. The Texans are also returning from London, with four defensive starters listed as questionable to begin the practice week.

Likely has five TDs this season and leads all New York pass-catchers in red-zone targets.

Broncos vs Cardinals TD pick

JK Dobbins 47%

GRADE: 🟡

JK Dobbins has had 20 opportunities and a TD in each of his last two games. With Tyler Badie injured, that workload looks sustainable in Week 7 against the Cardinals, who allow the third-most rushing yards to RBs and rank in the bottom third in TDs allowed to the position.

I have his TD probability at 53%, with RJ Harvey serving more as the passing-down back than a major touchdown threat. Jaylen Waddle suffered a chest injury last week, and the Broncos might have to lean on their RBs a little more, especially as 4.5-point road favorites.

Rams vs Raiders TD pick

Colby Parkinson 20%

GRADE: 🟡

The loss of Davante Adams should open up more snaps for Colby Parkinson. More importantly, it creates a red-zone void the TE can fill.

I have Parkinson at a fair price of 4.5x, 50 points shorter than his midweek price. He played 53% of the snaps last week but saw more targets (6) than Tyler Higbee, who played 78% of the snaps. Parkinson also had three red-zone targets, turning one into a score. He has more red-zone targets than every Rams player except Adams.

It’s an indoor game against a defense that allows the fourth-most TDs to the position. Parkinson also ranks 14th on the Covers anytime touchdown value index.

Packers vs Lions TD pick

Matthew Golden 38%

GRADE: 🟡

With a 53.5-point total indoors, Matthew Golden is appealing at 2.63x as a potential No. 1 passing option whose fair price should be closer to 2.4x.

Golden had 13 targets and 204 air yards last week and could have scored multiple TDs in what ended up being a one-TD effort. His 26% target share is three points higher than Christian Watson’s, yet Watson is priced 30 points shorter to score. Golden has scored in three of his last four games and has seven red-zone targets over the last three weeks, tied for the most of any player in that span.

Detroit has been one of the most generous teams to opposing WRs this year, allowing 179 yards per game (fourth most) and 1.08 TDs per game (fifth most). The Lions have also struggled in the red zone, allowing TDs on 81% of opponents’ trips, the second-highest rate in football, while surrendering 29.6 points per game.

Chiefs vs Seahawks TD pick

Patrick Mahomes 14%

GRADE: 🟢

Last week, Patrick Mahomes was priced at 4.75x to score, but he’s opened at 7x following the win over the Chargers. That’s the longest price we’ve seen on him since Week 1, when he cashed at 7.25x. I think his fair price should be in the 5.5x to 6x range in this matchup.

Kenneth Walker is going to eat against his former team, but that could lead to overpursuit against the run and open up opportunities for Mahomes to bootleg the other way. He currently ranks 10th in the NFL in scrambles despite playing one fewer game than most of the players ahead of him.

This isn’t the Colts, Dolphins, or Chargers, all of whom the Chiefs have handled lately. This should be a more competitive game, potentially increasing Kansas City’s pass rate, which currently ranks 27th in DB%.

Cowboys vs Eagles TD pick

Dallas Goedert 32%

GRADE: 🟡

I know everyone is down on the Eagles, but Dallas Goedert is the No. 2 option in an offense facing a Cowboys defense that ranks in the bottom 10 across the board, 31st in EPA per play, and dead last in EPA per dropback.

Goedert has 17 targets in two games since returning to the lineup. He’s faced a couple of decent defenses in Jacksonville and Carolina, but without the cross-country travel, this offense should have a better showing with extra rest and Tanner McKee locked in as the starter.

Goedert should be priced shorter than 3x, leaving some value at 3.1x or better.

My weekly NFL TD props column is 19-63 this season for -11.06 units.

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