With Shane Steichen in the hot seat after a rough 2-4 start, the Indianapolis Colts are teetering on the brink of a lost season, and they’re 6.5-point underdogs for Sunday’s visit to the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings.
Fresh off a bye week, Minnesota leads an ultra-competitive NFC North, and my Colts vs Vikings predictions point to the hosts’ aggressive defense sparking another comfortable win at U.S. Bank Stadium.
My NFL picks dig into this Sunday Oct. 25 battle, with kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
TOP Pick
Colts vs Vikings prediction: Vikings -6.5
This ruthless Minnesota Vikings start is no fluke – they’ve won 10 straight games dating back to last season, with an 8-2 ATS mark in that span, and their blitzing defense has Daniel Jones in its sights on Sunday.
Brian Flores’ aggressive unit ranks among the stingiest in the league against both the pass and the run (just 259.8 YPG allowed overall), and that spells trouble for an Indianapolis Colts team that’s lost 11 of its past 13 contests and had three costly turnovers last weekend.
Minnesota’s bye week has also cleaned up the injury report, with T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and Jordan Mason returning to diversify an offense that racked up 364 yards in Week 5 and capitalized on the defense's forced field position.
Meanwhile, Indy is unlikely to have Sauce Gardner to throw at the Justin Jefferson assignment and could also be without key target Tyler Warren. Jones has already turned the ball over nine times through the first six games, and I’d bet this to 53%.
COVERS INTEL: The Vikings are sending extra pressure on 70.4% of snaps this season, and Jones’ completion rate drops to 61% against the blitz, with an average of just 5.49 YPA against that look.
Colts vs Vikings combo
I expect a Minnesota win to come with a sharper offensive outing, with an extra week of preparation and more weapons for Kyler Murray to call on. The Vikings scored 39 points in their home opener against Green Bay, while the Colts gave up at least 30 points in road losses to Pittsburgh and Kansas City.
The Over has been a winning ticket in Indy’s last two contests, and this line feels too low for a matchup featuring Jefferson and (possible trade candidate) Jonathan Taylor on an indoor track.
Jones' brief spell with the Vikings in 2024 at least means he knows what to expect here. Expect the Indy offense to lean heavily on Taylor and quick checkdowns. That’s where Keenan Allen can thrive on Sunday, and he’s been busy in his last three appearances, catching 19 of 29 targets for 190 yards.
The Minnesota blitz will limit Jones's deep shots, but Allen's ability to win on short routes is highly valuable in this matchup.
Colts vs Vikings combo
- Vikings moneyline
- Over 41.5
- Keenan Allen Over 39.5 receiving yards
Colts vs Vikings touchdown scorer: Justin Jefferson
This is a great price on a Jefferson touchdown, especially with Gardner expected to be sidelined and the Colts' secondary overmatched.
The Vikings’ No.1 receiver already has three scores this season, and he shouldn’t be tied down by as many double teams with Addison and Hockenson back this weekend.
Jefferson had two TDs in the season opener at U.S. Bank Stadium, and this is a favorable matchup against an Indy defense that gave up six passing touchdowns in road losses to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
- Top picks: 2-3, -1.31 units
- Combos: 1-4, -1.0 units
Colts vs Vikings odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Colts +6.5 | Vikings -6.5
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (51%) | Under 41.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Colts 29% | Vikings 71%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Colts vs Vikings weather
U.S. Bank Stadium is a dome, protecting against any weather challenges and serving up a clean indoor track.
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Colts vs Vikings trend to know
The Colts have lost seven straight on the road (non-Europe games). Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Vikings.
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How to watch Colts vs Vikings
| Location | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV |
CBS |
Colts vs Vikings latest injuries
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