The Denver Broncos are 4.5-point road favorites against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium, with the total set at 42.5.
My Broncos vs. Cardinals prediction and NFL picks focus on a matchup lacking explosive offense, with Denver's five-game Under streak spearheading my favorite angle on Oct. 25.
TOP Pick
Broncos vs Cardinals prediction: Under 42.5
Under 42.5, down to 41.5, is my favorite pick in this game.
The Denver Broncos have hit the Under in five straight regular-season games when the total has been 44 or lower, including three this season.
Denver could also be getting star corner Patrick Surtain II back after he returned to practice this week following a two-game absence.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals already have one of the worst receiving corps in the league. If Surtain returns, the Broncos will have a strength-on-weakness edge over Arizona in pass coverage.
Per Pro Football Focus, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix and Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett rank 31st and 32nd in big-time throw rate, respectively. Expect a sluggish pace in this one.
COVERS INTEL: According to Warren Sharp, Arizona ranks last in the NFL in offensive explosive play rate, with Denver coming in second-last.
Broncos vs Cardinals combo
Since hiring head coach Sean Payton in 2023, Denver is 6-1 straight-up as a road favorite.
The rest of the combo leans into Denver winning without needing the game to open up. A slower script should limit possessions and give Broncos running back R.J. Harvey plenty of chances to operate underneath as an extension of the run game.
That’s the sweet spot here: Denver controls the pace, avoids a shootout, and lets Harvey pile up easy yards in space while protecting the lead.
Broncos vs Cardinals combo
- Denver's moneyline
- Under 42.5
- R.J. Harvey 25+ receiving yards
Broncos vs Cardinals touchdown scorer: R.J. Harvey
Harvey's anytime touchdown prop is tradable up to 28%. He has been the more efficient runner in Denver's backfield, posting a 57.1% rushing success rate compared to 38.3% for J.K. Dobbins.
More importantly, Harvey leads Denver with 23 receptions, giving him another path to the end zone beyond his rushing work. That receiving role could become even more important if Jaylen Waddle is limited Sunday.
Even though I expect a lower-scoring game, Harvey doesn't need Denver to light up the scoreboard. He can cash this prop on the ground or through the air.
- Top picks: 7-8, -1.70 units
- Combos: 4-11, +6.07 units
Broncos vs Cardinals odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Broncos -4.5 | Cardinals +4.5
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (55%) | Under 42.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Broncos 69% | Cardinals 36%
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Broncos vs Cardinals weather
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Broncos vs Cardinals trend to know
The Under has cashed in Denver's last four road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Cardinals.
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How to watch Broncos vs Cardinals
| Location | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Broncos vs Cardinals latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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