Kenneth Walker III returns to Seattle in my Week 7 NFL moneyline picks, but this time, the reigning Super Bowl MVP is suiting up for a 6-0 Chiefs team.
Kansas City headlines my latest NFL picks, and I’m ready to get back in the green.
My NFL moneyline record is 55-38 this season for -0.46 units.
NFL moneyline picks for Week 7
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Patriots vs  Bears |
59% |
 Steelers vs  Saints |
63% |
 Colts vs  Vikings |
72% |
 Dolphins vs  Jets |
68% |
 Bengals vs  Ravens |
50% |
 Browns vs  Titans |
55% |
 Buccaneers vs  Panthers |
61% |
 49ers vs  Falcons |
62% |
 Giants vs  Texans |
80% |
 Broncos vs  Cardinals |
67% |
 Rams vs  Raiders |
35% |
 Packers vs  Lions |
61% |
 Chiefs vs  Seahawks |
44% |
 Cowboys vs  Eagles |
66% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 7 NFL moneyline picks
Patriots vs. Bears: Bears
The return of Caleb Williams saw Chicago hang 31 points on Atlanta’s stout defense, and the Bears’ ground game has been punishing opponents all season.
New England hasn’t impressed me offensively whatsoever thus far, and with their O-line banged up, I’ll side with Ben Johnson’s attack on TNF.
Check out our full Patriots vs. Bears predictions!
Steelers vs. Saints: Steelers
New Orleans is allowing 29.7 points per game, tied for the second-worst mark in the league.
With the Saints also carrying a -6 turnover margin into Paris, I’ll ride with a Steelers squad that has won two straight and is fresh off a fourth-quarter comeback in Tampa Bay.
Colts vs. Vikings: Vikings
Daniel Jones threw two interceptions, was sacked five times, and posted a 44.3 passer rating in his lone career matchup against Brian Flores.
With Indy depleted at receiver and coming off an embarrassing loss to Tennessee, this could be the most lopsided matchup on the entire slate.
Dolphins vs. Jets: Jets
Miami’s offense ranks 31st in points per game (14.0), while the Jets’ defense is seventh in scoring, giving New York a clear edge.
With the Dolphins also allowing a 76.6% completion rate, take Gang Green to prevail at home.
Bengals vs. Ravens: Bengals
Baltimore blew another double-digit lead last week, marking the 17th time they’ve done so since 2018.
With Lamar Jackson remaining "day-to-day", I love Cincinnati in this spot, especially coming off a bye.
Browns vs. Titans: Browns
Chalk up Tennessee’s first win of the season to Indianapolis’ incompetence rather than any endorsement of Cam Ward or the Titans.
As Dustin Saracini broke down in his Browns vs. Titans early leans, “The Browns simply have the stronger unit, surrendering just 20 points per game while boasting the NFL's fifth-best red-zone defense; opponents are converting only 43% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.”
Expect the Browns to stay on top of the AFC North.
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Buccaneers vs. Panthers: Panthers
Tampa Bay ranks just 29th in EPA per play, and with Baker Mayfield yet to return, the Bucs will have their hands full against Bryce Young, who's playing every bit like an MVP candidate.
Back the well-rested Panthers to take care of business at home.
49ers vs. Falcons: 49ers
San Francisco boasts a league-best +67 point differential, while Brock Purdy has been sacked just five times during the 49ers' 6-0 start.
The Niners took their foot off the gas against Washington on Monday night, but DC Raheem Morris' familiarity with this Atlanta roster gives San Francisco a huge leg up.
Giants vs. Texans: Texans
Houston has won two straight since DeMeco Ryans resumed defensive play-calling, with the Texans averaging 3.0 sacks per game.
It’s a tough spot for a Giants offense in flux, especially with C.J. Stroud coming off his best outing of the season.
Broncos vs. Cardinals: Broncos
Hold your nose and look away from Bo Nix’s passing charts, because I’m relying solely on Denver’s defense, which held the defending champs in check without Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga. Surtain could also be in line to return for this showdown in the desert.
It won’t be pretty, as is always the case with Denver, but I’m not going against the Broncos in Week 7.
Rams vs. Raiders: Raiders
The Los Angeles Rams aren’t escaping the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles allegations, and now they’ll be without star wideout Davante Adams, along with DTs Kobie Turner and Poona Ford. CB1 Trent McDuffie’s status for this one is also up in the air.
Despite dropping three straight, Las Vegas’ offense kept them in games against Kansas City and Buffalo, and I'm bullish on an upset at the Black Hole.
Packers vs. Lions: Lions
Green Bay is now without Javon Hargrave and Edgerrin Cooper, both of whom suffered season-ending Achilles tears, while Micah Parsons has yet to take a snap this season.
That’s a tough spot against a Detroit offense averaging 32.8 points per game. The Lions also come off a bye, with Pro Bowl safety Brian Branch and center Cade Mays expected to return following their 45-21 rout of Arizona.
Josh Jacobs’ return may provide a boost for Green Bay's ground game, but it won’t be enough to overcome Detroit.
Chiefs vs. Seahawks: Chiefs
The undefeated Chiefs boast the league’s top offense at 414.0 total yards per game and the second-best scoring defense, allowing just 16.6 ppg.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have a real mess on their hands with Sam Darnold at quarterback and a running back-by-committee approach that has them missing Kenneth Walker dearly.
Take the plus-money odds with the better team.
Cowboys vs. Eagles: Cowboys
While Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are fresh off a stinker in Green Bay, they're at least in better shape health-wise than an Eagles team whose offense has been decimated by injuries, including a blood clot that has sidelined Jalen Hurts for the rest of the season.
The NFC East is still very much Dallas’ for the taking, while Philly seems about ready to punt on this year.
Take "America's Team" to prevail at the Linc.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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