NFL AI Predictions Week 7: ATS Picks & Score Projections for Every Game

Caleb Williams gives Chicago a stronger passing foundation on the short week. He returned against Atlanta with 305 passing yards and just six incompletions, allowing the Bears to sustain drives without relying on a handful of broken plays. New England presents a different test: its defense has allowed 5.25 yards per scrimmage play through six weeks, and Drake Maye gives the Patriots enough offensive production to keep this competitive.

The forecast favors Chicago by one, so New England +3.5 provides room for a narrow Bears win. Both offenses have a route to the low 20s, but turning that into a shootout requires more explosive finishes than the 24–23 projection anticipates. The 47-point forecast supports Under 50.5 alongside the Patriots against the spread.

Protection is the hinge of Pittsburgh's trip to Paris. The Steelers have surrendered 19 sacks on recorded scrimmage plays through six weeks, making clean early downs important for Aaron Rodgers. New Orleans has allowed a successful play on nearly half of opposing scrimmage snaps, so Pittsburgh has an opportunity to build drives without asking its quarterback to rescue repeated third-and-long situations. This is a neutral-site game, with no ordinary New Orleans home advantage.

The Saints still have a path through their own passing game if Tyler Shough avoids the negative plays that hand Pittsburgh short fields. A 24–20 Steelers win supports Pittsburgh -3.5 and Under 44.5, but both selections clear their lines by only half a point. Those are modest leans, especially if one turnover changes field position.

Baltimore's quarterback decision is the central uncertainty in this divisional matchup. Lamar Jackson remained day-to-day Monday, with no confirmed return after Tyler Huntley handled the last two games. The published forecast retains that uncertainty rather than assuming Jackson is back. Cincinnati's offense has allowed only nine sacks on scrimmage plays through six weeks, giving it a reasonable chance to avoid the drive-killing losses that would make this a comfortable Ravens win.

Baltimore's defense can still force Cincinnati to earn its points through extended possessions. That combination fits a close game: Ravens 24, Bengals 23. Cincinnati +2.5 is the spread selection even though Baltimore is the projected winner, while the 47-point score supports Under 50.5. A confirmed quarterback announcement will matter to the later-week review.

Tennessee's pass rush offers the clearest route to another close win. The Titans generated six sacks and three takeaways against Indianapolis, while Cleveland has allowed 24 sacks on scrimmage plays through six weeks. Repeated pressure can shorten drives and create favorable field position, reducing the distance Cam Ward must cover against a Browns defense that has also been effective at producing negative plays.

That is a narrow route, because Tennessee's offense has not established consistent scoring drives. The model lands on Titans 20, Browns 19, making Tennessee +1.5 the ATS pick and Tennessee to win the featured upset. The projected total is just half a point above 38.5; the Over is a slight numerical lean, not a forecast of an offensive breakout.

Minnesota's defense is the stronger unit in a matchup of uneven offenses. Opponents have produced a successful play on only 33.2% of scrimmage snaps against the Vikings through six weeks. That puts pressure on Indianapolis to protect Daniel Jones and avoid a sequence of obvious passing downs. The Colts surrendered six sacks in their loss to Tennessee, providing a recent example of how quickly pressure can disrupt their offense.

Minnesota has struggled to sustain its own possessions, however, so a defensive advantage does not automatically translate into a comfortable cover. The 24–19 Vikings forecast leaves Indianapolis inside +6.5, with enough room for the favorite to win by five. Its 43-point total is above 41.5, producing a modest Over lean despite the defensive emphasis.

The Jets can make Miami work for its yards, but their own protection keeps this close. New York has allowed fewer than five yards per opposing scrimmage play through six weeks, a difficult assignment for a Dolphins offense with a 37.6% success rate. Geno Smith's offense has also surrendered 19 sacks on those plays, so possessions can stall before the Jets turn their defensive advantage into points.

Miami's defense has generated little sack production, which gives New York a chance to keep its passing game on schedule. Still, the model projects a three-point Jets win rather than the separation required to cover -5.5. Dolphins +5.5 is the ATS selection, and a 23–20 final puts the combined score above the relatively low 39.5 total.

Houston's passing game can test a Giants defense that has struggled to finish possessions with sacks. New York has recorded eight on scrimmage plays through six weeks, leaving C.J. Stroud a chance to attack downfield if his protection holds. Houston expects Tank Dell back, while the Giants had not announced whether Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy would start when this edition's inputs were locked.

That uncertainty limits how confidently New York's late rally against New Orleans can be carried into this matchup. The model still gives the Giants enough offense to lose 26–17, which places them just inside +9.5. The 43-point forecast also sits only half a point above 42.5. Both Giants ATS and Over are thin leans that depend on New York contributing.

San Francisco's ability to keep Brock Purdy out of difficult downs is the main matchup advantage. The 49ers have allowed only five sacks on scrimmage plays through six weeks, while Atlanta has surrendered 16. That difference can give San Francisco more sustained possessions and force Michael Penix Jr. to make tougher throws when the Falcons fall behind the chains.

The 49ers face a shorter turnaround after Monday night and a cross-country trip, so the early road kickoff is a real complication. Even so, the forecast puts them ahead 27–20, supporting San Francisco -3.5 as this week's Best Pick. The 47-point combined score also points Under 50.5, with Atlanta's ability to extend drives more important than San Francisco producing a runaway win.

Tampa Bay's quarterback status complicates an already difficult protection matchup. The Buccaneers planned to evaluate Baker Mayfield in Wednesday's practice before determining whether he could return; rookie Jalon Daniels had started the previous three games. That remains unresolved in this initial edition. Tampa Bay has allowed 22 sacks on scrimmage plays through six weeks, making clean pockets a concern whichever quarterback takes the snaps.

Carolina's offense has been more efficient across the same sample, while the Buccaneers' defense gives them a way to keep the game competitive. The projected 24–20 Panthers win supports Carolina -3.5, but only by half a point. Its 44-point total similarly sits just below 44.5. These are narrow Panthers and Under leans, with the quarterback update central to the next review.

Denver's defense gives it a route to win without asking for a high-scoring performance from Bo Nix. The Broncos have generated 18 sacks on scrimmage plays through six weeks, while their offense has produced only 4.46 yards per play. Arizona's task is to keep Jacoby Brissett in manageable situations and avoid the lost yardage that turns a modest Denver lead into an easier game to control.

The Cardinals' defense has allowed almost six yards per opposing scrimmage play, giving Denver an opportunity to improve its offensive output. Still, a 24–20 Broncos win does not cover -4.5, so Arizona +4.5 is the selection. The 44-point forecast is also barely above 43.5. Both the Cardinals and Over qualify by just half a point.

Green Bay's defense offers resistance, but Detroit has the more consistent offense. The Lions have produced successful plays on 49.1% of scrimmage snaps through six weeks, compared with 40.2% for the Packers. That difference matters when both teams need to string together first downs. Green Bay has limited opponents to 4.70 yards per scrimmage play, so Detroit may need patience rather than expecting every possession to yield an explosive gain.

Jordan Love can still challenge a Lions defense that has allowed efficient offense, keeping this from looking like a one-sided matchup. The model projects Detroit 27, Green Bay 22: enough separation for Lions -3.5, but a combined score below 53.5. The Under case depends on Green Bay's defense forcing longer drives and making Detroit earn its touchdowns.

The Rams' passing game has a favorable efficiency matchup against Las Vegas. Los Angeles has gained 5.97 yards per scrimmage play through six weeks, while the Raiders have allowed 6.12. Matthew Stafford does not need every possession to become a deep-shot opportunity if the offense can keep moving the chains. Avoiding hurried throws and maintaining manageable third downs would let the Rams sustain that advantage.

The Raiders can answer if Kirk Cousins gets clean protection, but Los Angeles has allowed only 4.82 yards per opposing scrimmage play. The model gives the Rams the stronger combination, projecting a 27–20 win. That supports Los Angeles -4.5, with 2.5 points of separation from the line. The 47-point combined score is only narrowly below the 47.5 total.

Seattle's defense gives this matchup its most important counterweight to Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has gained 6.84 yards per scrimmage play through six weeks and allowed only six sacks. Seattle, meanwhile, has limited opposing offenses to 4.02 yards per play. If the Seahawks can prevent explosive gains without needing extra rushers, they can make the Chiefs assemble longer drives and create more chances for a third-down stop.

Kansas City's defense also presents a difficult assignment for Sam Darnold, so the projected Seattle win should not be read as an easy offensive night. The 24–20 Seahawks score supports Seattle -2.5. Its 44-point total is slightly above 42.5, with both teams contributing enough to get past a line that already anticipates substantial defensive resistance.

Philadelphia needs cleaner answers to pressure with Tanner McKee continuing at quarterback. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve, and McKee's first start of this stretch produced 215 passing yards in the loss to Carolina. Dallas offers an opportunity to improve: its defense has allowed 6.21 yards per opposing scrimmage play through six weeks, leaving room for the Eagles to sustain more possessions if the protection and timing improve.

Dak Prescott's offense has protected its quarterback more effectively, allowing seven sacks on scrimmage plays over the same period. That helps explain the projected 24–20 Dallas win, while Philadelphia +4.5 remains the ATS selection. The 44-point forecast sits just below 44.5, so both the Eagles cover and Under are half-point leans rather than strong separation from the market.