Week 6 was a reminder that picking the "better" team doesn't always mean picking the right side of the spread. And Week 7 isn't making things any easier, with quarterback injuries, tricky scheduling spots, and several favorites being asked to cover uncomfortable numbers.
From a short-handed Ravens team to an unbeaten 49ers squad facing a quick turnaround, there's plenty to consider before making a pick.
Here are my NFL against the spread picks for all 14 games, with more betting analysis available on our NFL picks page.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 7
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Patriots vs  Bears |
-3.5 |
 Steelers vs  Saints |
+3.5 |
 Colts vs  Vikings |
+6.5 |
 Dolphins vs  Jets |
-4.5 |
 Bengals vs  Ravens |
+2.5 |
 Browns vs  Titans |
+1.5 |
 Buccaneers vs  Panthers |
-3.5 |
 49ers vs  Falcons |
+3.5 |
 Giants vs  Texans |
-9.5 |
 Broncos vs  Cardinals |
+4.5 |
 Rams vs  Raiders |
+4.5 |
 Packers vs  Lions |
+3.5 |
 Chiefs vs  Seahawks |
+2.5 |
 Cowboys vs  Eagles |
-4.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 7 NFL ATS picks
Patriots vs Bears: Bears -3.5
Caleb Williams returned with 305 passing yards in Chicago’s 31-23 win over Atlanta, giving the Bears an offensive dimension they badly missed. New England has won three straight, so this is hardly a free square.
On a short week, I trust Williams to create enough explosive plays to separate at home. The hook above a field goal is uncomfortable, but Chicago’s offensive upside gets my vote.
Steelers vs Saints: Saints +3.5
Pittsburgh needed overtime to beat Tampa Bay 26-19, while New Orleans snapped its losing streak with a 34-27 road victory over the Giants. Neither result makes the Steelers look like a trustworthy road favorite.
The game is in France, so this is no ordinary Saints home date. Still, getting more than a field goal in a potentially awkward international matchup is attractive. I’ll take New Orleans.
Colts vs Vikings: Colts +6.5
Indianapolis lost 26-20 to Tennessee despite moving the ball considerably better than the Titans. Turnovers and costly mistakes were the difference, and those are dangerous things to assume will repeat.
Minnesota has the rest advantage coming off its bye, so the Colts have their work cut out. But asking the Vikings to win by a touchdown feels steep. Give me the points with Indianapolis.
Dolphins vs Jets: Jets -4.5
New York fell 26-19 to New England, but the Jets now return home for a divisional matchup with a Miami team I do not trust to sustain drives consistently. This is about which offense can avoid long stretches of empty possessions.
Laying this many points with the Jets is uncomfortable. Still, I expect their defense to create favorable field position and give New York enough chances to pull away.
Bengals vs Ravens: Bengals +2.5
Baltimore managed only 10 points in its loss to Cleveland with Lamar Jackson sidelined. His ankle status remains the defining question for this matchup, and Cincinnati’s passing attack can make the Ravens pay if their offense stalls again.
I’ll take the Bengals with the points for now, but this pick is sensitive to Jackson’s availability and mobility. A healthy Lamar would change the handicap.
Browns vs Titans: Titans +1.5
Tennessee finally broke through with a 26-20 win over Indianapolis, while Cleveland is coming off an emotional 13-10 victory against Baltimore. The Browns deserve credit for that defensive effort, but their offense still leaves little margin for error.
This feels like the type of low-scoring road game where a favorite can get dragged into trouble. I prefer the home underdog, even if Tennessee remains difficult to trust.
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Buccaneers vs Panthers: Panthers -3.5
Carolina earned a 25-14 road win over Philadelphia, another encouraging step for Bryce Young and an offense that has started to find its footing. Tampa Bay just pushed Pittsburgh into overtime before losing, so the Buccaneers are hardly an automatic fade.
The hook is the concern, especially against a familiar divisional opponent. But I like Carolina’s ability to sustain drives and make Tampa Bay play from behind.
49ers vs Falcons: Falcons +3.5
San Francisco escaped Washington 23-17 on Monday after leading 20-3 at halftime, and Mike Evans left with an Achilles issue. Now the undefeated 49ers travel east on a short week, which is hardly ideal for a team dealing with receiving injuries.
Atlanta needs better quarterback play than it got against Chicago, but the situational edge and the extra half-point make the Falcons worth backing at home.
Giants vs Texans: Texans -9.5
Houston needed a last-second field goal to beat Jacksonville 34-31 in London, with C.J. Stroud throwing for 312 yards. The defense was far from convincing, but the Texans’ offense has enough firepower to punish a mistake-prone Giants team.
The international turnaround makes laying nearly 10 points risky. Still, I’m backing Houston to force New York into passing situations and create the separation needed to cover.
Broncos vs Cardinals: Cardinals +4.5
Arizona beat the Rams 18-16 without scoring a touchdown, relying on six Chad Ryland field goals. That is not a sustainable offense, but the Cardinals showed they can stay competitive when their defense keeps games within reach.
Denver has the stronger defense, yet laying more than a field goal on the road asks plenty of its offense. I’ll take Arizona to hang around, even if the Broncos win.
Rams vs Raiders: Raiders +4.5
Las Vegas scored 30 points in a loss to Buffalo, showing enough offensive life to make this matchup interesting. The Rams, meanwhile, lost 18-16 to Arizona and will be without Davante Adams after a significant hamstring injury.
Los Angeles still has the better overall structure, but its margin for error has narrowed. With the Raiders at home and catching more than a field goal, I’ll take the points.
Packers vs Lions: Packers +3.5
Green Bay beat Dallas 23-13, and Jordan Love gives the Packers the passing-game ceiling needed to answer Detroit’s explosive offense. This could turn into a possession-by-possession battle rather than a comfortable Lions win.
Divisional familiarity matters, especially when the spread sits above a field goal. Detroit can absolutely win outright, but I trust Green Bay to stay within striking distance and make those points count.
Chiefs vs Seahawks: Chiefs +2.5
Kansas City improved to 5-0 with a 22-6 win over the Chargers, leaning on defense rather than needing a Patrick Mahomes masterpiece. Seattle is a difficult place to visit, and the Seahawks have the defensive talent to make this uncomfortable.
Getting points with Mahomes in what looks like a tight prime-time matchup is appealing. I trust his ability to manufacture enough important drives to keep Kansas City inside the number.
Cowboys vs Eagles: Cowboys -4.5
Philadelphia has placed Jalen Hurts on injured reserve, leaving Tanner McKee to lead an offense that managed only 14 points against Carolina. Dallas is coming off a 23-13 loss to Green Bay, but the Cowboys have a clearer route to offensive production here.
The divisional setting makes this dangerous, especially in Philadelphia. Even so, the quarterback gap is too significant for me to ignore. I’m laying the points with Dallas.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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