My Colts vs. Jaguars prediction expects Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to take care of business in their first true home game in over a month, laying 9.5 points against a Colts team that just traded away two of its best players on Sunday, Nov. 1.
The Jaguars return to EverBank Stadium after back-to-back international games in London, while the Colts arrive after trading away two of their most talented players earlier this week. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS, with the total at 46.5.
Read the full analysis below, and find more winners in my NFL picks for Week 8.
TOP PICK
Colts vs Jaguars prediction: Jaguars -9.5
Playable to 54%.
Trevor Lawrence is playing some of the best football of his career to begin the 2026 campaign. He's finished five of his first six games with a positive EPA/play and has the fourth-best schedule-adjusted EPA/play among qualified quarterbacks this season, which puts him on the board in the NFL MVP odds.
Daniel Jones is on the opposite end of that leaderboard. He's finished just two of his seven starts with a positive EPA/play this season. Only Kyler Murray, Cam Ward, and Justin Herbert have been less productive than Jones when adjusting for the strength of opposing pass defenses.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have the better quarterback, a more talented defense, and home-field advantage in Week 8. There aren't many reasons to expect this game to be competitive.
COVERS INTEL: Trevor Lawrence ranks third in explosive play rate among 33 qualified quarterbacks in 2026. Daniel Jones ranks 24th.
Colts vs Jaguars combo
Playable to 23%.
The Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts are trending in opposite directions. Lawrence and company rank third in my schedule-adjusted Net EPA/play ratings, while the Colts rank 25th.
The Jaguars have aggressively traded early-round draft picks to bolster their roster for an immediate championship push. The Colts traded away two of their most talented players earlier this week, shifting their attention toward building a competitive roster for 2027 and beyond.
Expect the Jaguars to take care of business at home in Week 8, with the weather potentially helping keep this game Under the total. Bhayshul Tuten should get plenty of work on the ground if the game follows that script, making this a correlated combo.
Colts vs Jaguars combo
- Jaguars moneyline
- Under 46.5
- Bhayshul Tuten Over 63.5 rushing yards
Colts vs Jaguars touchdown scorer: Bhayshul Tuten
Playable to 55%.
Many pundits predicted that Chris Rodriguez Jr. could steal short-yardage, goal-line work from Tuten in 2026, but that hasn't been the case through the first half of the campaign. Tuten has received every Jaguars rushing attempt inside the 10-yard line that has gone to a running back this season.
The Colts traded away star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner earlier this week, further weakening a defensive line that already ranked in the bottom 10 in most metrics against the run.
Tuten should have opportunities to score on Sunday if the Jaguars get into scoring range. For other options, browse our Week 8 anytime touchdown picks.
Colts vs Jaguars player prop: Keenan Allen 40+ receiving yards
Playable to 48%.
Keenan Allen had just 31 receiving yards last weekend against the Vikings, but that was still enough to lead all Colts pass-catchers in Week 7.
Since Week 3, Allen has led qualified Colts receivers in targets per route run (27.8%) and first-read targets (23). The Jaguars' pass defense hasn't been great this season, either, ranking 14th in EPA/play allowed and 19th in success rate allowed.
If windy conditions make throwing downfield a challenge, Allen's skill set as a low-aDOT receiver makes him a potentially weather-resistant option in this matchup.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 1-4, -3.00 units
- Combos: 1-4, -0.83 units
Colts vs Jaguars odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Colts +9.5 | Jaguars -9.5
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (50%) | Under 46.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Colts 20% | Jaguars 81%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
More NFL Week 8 predictions
- Ravens vs. Bills prediction
- Vikings vs. Lions prediction
- Browns vs. Steelers prediction
- Raiders vs. Jets prediction
Colts vs Jaguars weather
With kickoff approaching, the forecast for Florida's NFL games this weekend continues to worsen. In Jacksonville, wind gusts of up to 25 mph and a high chance of rain could make it difficult to throw downfield consistently.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date information on every matchup.
Colts vs Jaguars trend to know
The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams with losing records. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Jaguars.
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How to watch Colts vs Jaguars
| Location | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Colts vs Jaguars latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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