The Lions may be 3.5-point home favorites this afternoon, but my Vikings vs. Lions prediction takes the points with Minnesota in this 1 p.m. ET NFC North showdown at Ford Field.
Find out why in my NFL picks for Sunday, Nov. 1.
TOP PICK
Vikings vs Lions prediction: Vikings +3.5
I recommend taking the points with the Minnesota Vikings above the key number of -3, up to 56%.
Minnesota has allowed the fewest points per game and the lowest EPA per play while ranking second in defensive DVOA, so I don't expect the Detroit Lions to win by a wide margin.
It's a different story for the Detroit defense, which allows the highest EPA per play while ranking 25th in defensive DVOA.
Plus, the Vikings won outright as +9.5 and +7.5 underdogs in the two 2025 meetings between the NFC North rivals.
Finally, I value Minny allowing the fourth-lowest explosive play rate while also blitzing at the highest rate in the league because the Vikings aren't allowing chunk plays when opposing quarterbacks are able to navigate the pressure.
COVERS INTEL: The Vikings have allowed the third-lowest third-down conversion rate, while the Lions have surrendered the sixth-highest.
Vikings vs Lions combo
Minnesota QB Kyler Murray has a respectable 66.7 completion percentage and ranks sixth in completion percentage over expectation over the past five weeks. The Lions have also surrendered the second-most passing completions despite playing just six games, and Detroit has allowed the fifth-highest dropback success rate.
Detroit has been particularly vulnerable to tight ends and has allowed a league-high 602 receiving yards to the position, too.
So, with Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson ranked in the 96th percentile of EPA per target at the position, he's set for success against his former team. Our Week 8 expert combo picks have more same-game parlay ideas across the slate.
Vikings vs Lions combo
- Vikings +3.5
- Kyler Murray 20+ completions
- T.J. Hockenson 40+ receiving yards
Prefer to keep it simple? See our Week 8 moneyline picks for more underdog spots.
Vikings vs Lions touchdown scorer: T.J. Hockenson
I recommend Hockenson finding the end zone up to 31% because he has garnered a solid 33.3% target share in the red zone and scored last week.
The Lions have also surrendered a league-high 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, including yielding a score to the position in five of six games. For more scorer ideas, see our Week 8 anytime touchdown picks.
Vikings vs Lions player prop: Kyler Murray 20+ passing completions
In addition to the noted case for Murray to complete 20 or more passes against the Lions, he’s also posted a career-high 79.5 adjusted completion percentage while having his highest average time to throw.
The Minnesota passing attack is finally at full strength, too. Murray and go-to wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison had only been on the field together for 18 snaps before their Week 7 game against the Indianapolis Colts.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 42-34, +6.96 units
- Combos: 0-15, -15 units
Vikings vs Lions odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Vikings +3.5 | Lions -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (51%) | Under 45.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Vikings 38% | Lions 63%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
More NFL Week 8 predictions
- Colts vs. Jaguars prediction
- Ravens vs. Bills prediction
- Browns vs. Steelers prediction
- Raiders vs. Jets prediction
Vikings vs Lions weather
Ford Field is fully enclosed, so outdoor weather won't affect this NFC North matchup.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Vikings vs Lions trend to know
The Vikings have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 road games for +3.70 units and a 34% ROI. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Lions.
or our BET99 promo code COVERS99 if you're in Canada.
How to watch Vikings vs Lions
| Location | Ford Field, Detroit, Mich. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Vikings vs Lions latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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