The Kansas City Chiefs got back on track last week and now hit the road and face the 3-1 SU Jacksonville Jaguars, who, despite being tied for the AFC South lead, are 3.5-point home dogs vs. the healthy 2-2 SU Chiefs.
My Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions look to Patrick Mahomes to use his legs a bit more often.
Find out why in my NFL picks for Monday, October 6.
Chiefs vs Jaguars prediction
Chiefs vs Jaguars Best bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards (-110)
After dismantling the Ravens last week, the Kansas City Chiefs are back to .500 and looking to reestablish themselves in the AFC mix. Patrick Mahomes has climbed to No. 3 in the MVP betting markets, and a big performance under the lights against a 3-1 Jacksonville Jaguars team could push him further up the board.
Mahomes has quietly been using his legs more this season, with 22 carries for 130 yards and two rushing touchdowns through four games. And with the way this matchup shapes up, we should see even more of it in Week 5.
Jacksonville’s run defense is legit — one of just nine teams allowing under 4.0 yards per carry and currently No. 1 in success rate. They’ve given up just one rushing TD all year (to Jake Browning), and mobile QBs have found room to run: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Brock Purdy all beat their opening rushing props against this defense.
Meanwhile, Kansas City's own run game has been a non-factor. Only the Chargers have a higher pass rate and pass rate over expected, and the Chiefs are so weak at RB that rookie Brashard Smith is starting to generate buzz. Isaih Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have just 10 combined red-zone carries; Mahomes has six on his own and already converted two for touchdowns.
THE BLITZ is projecting 29 rushing yards for Mahomes this week. His rushing total closed at 28.5 last week and 27.5 the game before. Against a tough run D and in what should be a neutral game script, Mahomes could once again lead this backfield—on the ground and on the scoreboard. There is a small chance that he could lead this game in rushing yards if Jacksonville splits carries between Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten.
Chiefs vs Jaguars MNF same-game parlay
Mahomes will continue the MVP push in prime time vs. a tough defense that can surprise some. If he is trailing at any point in this game, this looks great, but with the Chiefs' PROE No.2 in the league, even with the lead, this team is going to pass, which is better for scrambles. Let's not look for three different guys to do something; let's back one elite playmaker in a pivotal game of the season with a healthy offense. Quarterback rushing props are also some of the most exciting to cheer for.
Chiefs vs Jaguars SGP
- Patrick Mahomes anytime TD
- Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards
- Chiefs moneyline
Our big-ticket SGP: Mahomes is where the heart is
Let's add the rookie running back for a TD. He saw his snaps double in Week 4, and the brass is talking about him around the water cooler this week. He could have some featured plays this week and might be growing in the passing game. Adding Trevor Lawrence for a pick here is a no-brainer vs. this KC defense, as the Jags QB has already thrown four passes to the other team through four games.
Chiefs vs Jaguars SGP (+4,000)
- Patrick Mahomes anytime TD
- Brashard Smith anytime TD
- Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions
Chiefs vs Jaguars odds
- Spread: Kansas City -3.5 | Jacksonville +3.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -185 | Jacksonville +155
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Chiefs vs Jaguars betting trend to know
Patrick Mahomes is 39-10 SU as a road favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Jaguars.
How to watch Chiefs vs Jaguars
| Location | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date | Monday, October 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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