In Ohio State's first game since losing Julian Sayin, the Buckeyes head across the country to take on a struggling USC program at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday, Oct. 31, at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC).
The Buckeyes are 6.5-point road favorites, and my Ohio State vs. USC predictions and college football picks are backing Matt Patricia's defense to hand Lincoln Riley another high-profile loss.
TOP PICK
Who will win Ohio State vs USC: Ohio State -6.5
Although Ryan Day hasn't made it official, it appears that true freshman Luke Fahey will be making his first start for Ohio State against USC. Even with the precarious QB situation, I would take the Buckeyes to cover up to -8.5 on the road against the Trojans.
USC might be at an all-time low in the Lincoln Riley era after scoring just seven points and totaling 239 yards in a 17-point loss to Wisconsin last week, a game the Trojans were favored in. If USC's offense can't compete against top defenses, and Ohio State's is arguably the best (ranked No. 1 by SP+), Riley's team doesn't stand a chance.
USC's defense has been atrocious under Gary Patterson, ranking 96th in success rate (46%). Fahey and Jeremiah Smith, the Heisman Trophy odds favorite, should make enough plays to win a low-scoring game by nine or more points.
COVERS INTEL: USC's defense is allowing 28.8 points per game against Big Ten opponents and ranks outside the Top 100 nationally in EPA per dropback and rush.
Ohio State vs USC Over/Under pick: Under 51.5
USC's whole deal under Riley has been about having a strong enough offense to make up for poor defensive play. That hasn't been the case against quality programs, and this is USC's first taste of playing the Buckeyes since Riley took over.
With Ohio State allowing just 13.4 points per game and holding six of seven opponents to fewer than 20 points, I like the Under at 49.5 or better. The Buckeyes' defense ranks fifth nationally in success rate (36.4%), and USC is coming off an ugly outing against a Wisconsin defense that's a tier below the Buckeyes.
But this is among the highest-ranked games in my Top 25 predictions this week because of Ohio State's QB situation. Fahey is a true freshman who was ranked the 38th-best QB in the 2026 recruiting class.
The Buckeyes could struggle to score more than 27, even on this USC defense.
Ohio State vs USC combo
This is one of the best possible opponents for Fahey to make his debut against because of how awful USC's defense has been this season. The Trojans haven't even faced an offense ranked Top 25 by SP+ yet, and they're allowing 25 points per game.
If Ohio State can score 25 on USC on a rainy night in L.A., the Buckeyes should cruise to a decisive win thanks to their defense. The Trojans have no run game and are asking too much of freshmen to carry the passing attack.
Even if this game is tight heading into the fourth quarter, the Buckeyes will pull away. USC has been outscored 21-7 in the fourth quarter in its two losses this season.
Ohio State vs USC combo
- Ohio State -6.5
- Under 51.5
- Ohio State fourth quarter -1.5
- Top picks: 19-13, +3.43 units
- Combos: 8-24, +0.22 units
Ohio State vs USC odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Ohio State -6.5 | USC +6.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (49%) | Under 51.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Ohio State 68% | USC 32%
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
More Covers college football betting tools
Ohio State vs USC weather
Los Angeles is expected to be rainy, which could affect field conditions (natural grass) and each team's ability to throw the ball. That certainly favors the Under with Ohio State's QB situation.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Ohio State vs USC trend to know
Ohio State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs. USC.
or our BET99 promo code COVERS99 if you're in Canada.
How to watch Ohio State vs USC
| Location | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Ohio State vs USC latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
