College Football AI Predictions Week 9: ATS Picks & Score Predictions for Every Game

Arizona has enough passing firepower to make Texas Tech work for its bounce-back win. The Red Raiders return to Lubbock with a 12-game home winning streak, but their five defensive touchdowns over the past four games are a difficult source of points to keep reproducing. Arizona's five-game winning streak creates a credible challenge for a team coming off its first loss. Chris Gregory backs Texas Tech -3.5; our 28-26 projection instead takes Arizona +3.5. The difference is a close finish, not an outright upset. A combined 54 points also lands just below 54.5, making the Under a thin half-point preference rather than a call for either offense to stall.

SMU can win in Syracuse without turning this into another runaway. The Mustangs have held opponents to 27 conversions in 99 third-down attempts, giving Kevin Jennings and the offense a reliable way to regain possession. Syracuse arrives with some confidence after its 31-30 overtime escape at North Carolina, though that win does not erase SMU's broader advantage. Chris Vasile takes the Mustangs on the moneyline, and our 31-27 score agrees on the winner while leaving substantial room for Syracuse +10.5. The more delicate selection is Over 57.5: the projected 58 points clear it by only half a point, so a few successful third-down stops could easily change that outcome.

Iowa's defense is the strongest reason to trust the Hawkeyes in a low-scoring rivalry game. Kirk Ferentz's team allows 14.3 points per game, but losing leading rusher Kamari Moulton for the season makes the other side of the ball less dependable. Hank Brown is set to start after sharing quarterback work with Jeremy Hecklinski against Minnesota, but he will lead an offense that now needs to replace its most productive back. Chris Vasile prefers Wisconsin for the upset; the model instead has Iowa winning 20-14 and covering -3.5. That 34-point total supports Under 37.5, although Iowa's offensive personnel questions also make a six-point winning margin harder to take for granted.

Notre Dame's likely win and Navy's chance to cover are two different questions. The Midshipmen are 2-5, yet they have outscored opponents 208-204 and lead the country with 20.5 yards per completion. Their sparse passing game can still punish a defense that commits too aggressively to the run. On the other side, CJ Carr is trying to rebound from his least efficient outing after Notre Dame's loss at BYU. Our 44-14 forecast gives the Irish control in Foxborough, but a 30-point margin only narrowly favors Navy +30.5. The projected 58 points also support Over 56.5, with Navy's ability to contribute two touchdowns doing meaningful work.

Ole Miss has the better scoring outlook, but Auburn gets a useful cushion against an unsettled backfield. Kewan Lacy is unavailable, leaving Makhi Frazier, Shakai Mills-Knight and JT Lindsey to share the work. Pete Golding has also highlighted slow starts and the challenge of containing Byrum Brown's scrambling, two ways a comfortable Rebels win could become a tighter betting result. Our expert totals picks favor Over 57.5, while the model's 33-20 Ole Miss win points to Under 57.5. Auburn +13.5 is much less emphatic: the projected margin is 13, so the selection depends on half a point and offers little protection against a late Rebels score.

Georgia's offensive efficiency gives it a clear route through Florida's vulnerable secondary. Gunner Stockton has completed 74.1% of his passes, while the Gators allow 255 passing yards per game. That matchup supports the 38-24 Bulldogs projection and Georgia -11.5 in this neutral-site meeting in Atlanta. Rob Paul also backs Georgia and the Over. The complication is Florida's contribution: both Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. are questionable. Over 55.5 benefits from the forecast's 62 points, but getting 24 from the Gators is less comfortable with neither quarterback assured of being fully healthy.

BYU's ground-game response will determine whether it can separate from Arizona State. The Cougars managed only 116 rushing yards in their double-overtime loss at UCF, a sharp drop from their production entering that game. Back in Provo, where they are 4-0, Bear Bachmeier's running ability and a 54.7% third-down conversion rate offer routes to sustained drives. Missed tackles hurt BYU in Orlando, and a 35-17 win would require a cleaner defensive performance against Arizona State. It supports BYU -16.5 and Over 49.5, though the spread has only 1.5 points of room and the Sun Devils arrive off a 28-17 win over Kansas State.

Indiana's defense can carry this matchup, but its offense still has to justify a large spread. The Hoosiers needed overtime to beat Michigan 13-6, and Curt Cignetti acknowledged that the passing game must improve. He expects Josh Hoover to be healthier this week, which matters when the forecast calls for Indiana to reach 31 points. Rob Paul backs the Hoosiers and Under behind their disruptive defense. Our 31-10 projection lands on the same sides at Indiana -20.5 and Under 41.5, but both clear by only half a point. Minnesota's ability to mix coverages and bring pressure gives those small margins a practical reason for caution.

Oregon's projected rebound runs directly into uncertainty at quarterback and play caller. Dan Lanning does not expect Dante Moore to return this season, and Jay Johnson has taken over the offense following Drew Mehringer's dismissal. Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas have shared the starts since Moore's injury, leaving little basis for assuming an immediate return to the Ducks' earlier rhythm. Chris Gregory takes Northwestern +3.5, whereas our 27-20 score favors Oregon -3.5. Covering that number will require more consistent quarterback play than the Ducks have shown recently, even at Autzen Stadium. The 47-point projection also supports Under 49.5, a more natural fit with an Oregon offense still trying to establish reliable production.

Utah's run defense offers a sturdier foundation than simply betting against another Cincinnati upset. The Utes allow only 88.3 rushing yards and 14.6 points per game, while Devon Dampier's 150-yard rushing performance against Houston shows how difficult their own offense can be to contain. Cincinnati has just beaten Texas Tech, so an unbeaten visitor cannot expect the home team to fold. Still, our 34-23 Utah projection provides room to cover -6.5, matching Chris Gregory’s Utah selection. Over 56.5 is a far smaller advantage: the forecast reaches 57. Cincinnati must contribute substantially for that ticket to win against a defense that has been among the country's toughest to move.

Wake Forest gets the fresher legs in a matchup between an efficient passing game and a capable pass defense. The Demon Deacons return from a bye, while Virginia plays for an eighth consecutive week. Gio Lopez averages 314.3 yards of total offense, and Carlos Hernandez supplies a consistent downfield threat, but the Cavaliers lead the ACC in pass-efficiency defense. Wake’s recent scoring surge makes that strength especially relevant: this is not a defense to dismiss solely because Virginia has lost twice in a row. Our 31-17 forecast favors Wake Forest -11.5, while the projected 48 points support Under 49.5 if Virginia can limit the longest completions.

UCLA's rushing attack can keep the unbeaten season moving without requiring a huge passing day. The Bruins average 233 yards on the ground, and Wayne Knight has 12 rushing touchdowns. That support matters for Ty Dieffenbach, who made only his second FBS start in last week's 28-10 win over Michigan State. UCLA held the Spartans to 156 total yards, reinforcing the defensive case for another comfortable win. The Bruins have kept winning through their quarterback change, but our 35-12 projection makes Nevada +23.5 a half-point selection. Over 43.5 has more room at a projected 47, although it still requires Nevada to make some scoring contribution.

Iowa State's upset projection asks for a sharp reversal of the teams' recent offensive form. Oklahoma State averages 529.1 yards per game behind Drew Mestemaker, while the Cyclones just lost 39-3 at Arizona and have lost four of their expected top six receivers for the season. Aiden Flora's 7.02 yards per carry gives Iowa State a plausible way to sustain drives and reduce the number of possessions. Still, Oklahoma State’s explosive attack is a serious challenge to the 28-27 Cyclones forecast. Iowa State +9.5 offers considerably more room than the outright prediction, and Under 57.5 needs the Cyclones to keep this from becoming a succession of quick Cowboys scores.

Ashton Daniels gives Florida State a way to stress Clemson with both designed runs and downfield throws. Daniels accounted for five touchdowns against Miami before the Seminoles' bye and has 11 rushing scores this season. That versatility supports a 30-20 Florida State forecast, even though Clemson has won its last four visits to Tallahassee. Chris Gregory takes Clemson +6.5, making the model's Florida State -6.5 a clear disagreement on whether Florida State can create separation. The projected 50 points put Over 49.5 ahead by only half a point. One stalled red-zone trip could erase that edge, particularly if Clemson keeps Daniels from extending plays with his legs.

Texas has shown it can win against strong opponents while still letting comfortable leads disappear. The Longhorns led Ole Miss 24-3 at halftime before being pulled back to 24-24 and eventually winning 34-27. Raleek Brown's 157 rushing yards supplied a more dependable source of offense than a game in which Arch Manning committed three turnovers, a concern highlighted in the Texas matchup preview. Our 34-20 score favors Mississippi State +20.5 despite a clear Longhorns win. Over 50.5 follows from the projected 54 points, but the Bulldogs must improve on their last two outings, when they scored zero against LSU and 15 against Oklahoma.

Miami's Mensah-to-Toney connection gives North Carolina a difficult problem to solve for four quarters. Malachi Toney caught a school-record 16 passes for 194 yards and three touchdowns against Pittsburgh, while Darian Mensah completed 31 of 37 throws. The Tar Heels just lost 31-30 in overtime to Syracuse, and keeping pace with this passing game requires more consistency than they have shown. Chris Gregory also backs Miami -14.5, matching our 35-17 projection and making the Hurricanes one of the unanimous spread selections. Under 53.5 comes from the 52-point forecast, not an expectation that Miami struggles. It needs the Hurricanes to hold North Carolina down without turning every late possession into another quick score.

Ohio State's defense supports the road favorite, but 35 points is an ambitious offensive expectation without Julian Sayin. Sayin is out indefinitely with a throwing-arm injury, and Luke Fahey is expected to start after sharing first-team work with Tavien St. Clair during the bye. Jeremiah Smith's 984 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns give the new quarterback an exceptional target, while the Buckeyes allow just 13.4 points per game. Chris Gregory backs Ohio State -6.5, matching the model's 35-21 forecast. Over 51.5 follows from the projected 56 points, though it carries the bigger personnel concern: Fahey must convert the offense's opportunities at a level his limited college playing time cannot yet establish.

Missouri needs touchdowns from its red-zone trips to turn a road win into a cover. The Tigers have converted only half of those opportunities into touchdowns, and Eli Drinkwitz has emphasized the need to finish drives. Arkansas also had a week off after beating Vanderbilt 31-21, so Missouri does not have a rest advantage to lean on. Our 27-17 forecast favors Missouri -9.5, but only by half a point; settling for one extra field goal instead of a touchdown could decide the spread. The 44-point projection gives Under 49.5 a larger cushion, with Missouri's difficulty finishing drives offering one reason the total could stay lower.

Boise State's explosive running game gives it a route to pull away even when the passing attack starts slowly. Dylan Riley rushed for 128 yards against Washington State, including fourth-quarter touchdowns of 33 and 72 yards, while Maddux Madsen still has 14 touchdown passes without an interception this season. Texas State brings its own productive attack and mobile quarterback Brad Jackson, giving the 41-25 projection a plausible source of points on both sides. Boise State -10.5 and Over 63.5 follow from that score. The Broncos' depth needs watching, however: Sire Gaines, Ben Ford and Austin Terry are questionable.