Tonight's Week 9 college football slate, Friday, Oct. 30, features just three games, but there's no shortage of storylines under the Friday night lights.
The headliner of my Week 9 Friday night football picks is Baylor vs. UCF, with the Bears slight moneyline underdogs. Baylor is playing its first game since firing Dave Aranda, while the Knights are coming off the biggest upset in program history over No. 2 BYU in the AP Top 25.
My Friday college football picks also include Tulane vs. Charlotte, with the 49ers looking to win consecutive games for the first time since 2024. The third game, Kent State vs. Sacramento State, features the Golden Flashes favored by more than 5.5 points against an FBS team for the first time in four years.
Week 9 Friday night college football picks
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| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Tulanevs.  Charlotte |
-9.5 |
49% |
 Baylorvs.  UCF |
moneyline |
50% |
 Kent Statevs.  Sacramento State |
+9.5 |
54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Friday night college football picks for Week 9
Tulane vs Charlotte: Tulane -9.5
In its last game, Charlotte won an FBS matchup for the first time since Nov. 30, 2024. Head coach Tim Albin is now 2-17 with the 49ers, but that win is why Tulane isn't closer to a two-touchdown favorite. I'd play the Green Wave up to -13.5.
Tulane has had an inconsistent season, but it has also played an incredibly tough schedule to start Will Hall's tenure as head coach. Despite that schedule, the Green Wave are 3-2 ATS since Week 3. They have covered twice on the road and upset Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog.
With several quality running backs and a big-play threat in wide receiver Destyn Hill, Tulane should score enough against a Charlotte defense that ranks 135th nationally in success rate allowed (50.7%). The 49ers also won't pose much of a threat to a solid Tulane defense. They rank last in college football in third- and fourth-down success rate (29.5%).
Plus, Tulane is bringing back "Wumbo" for this game, and that has to be worth something.
Baylor vs UCF: Baylor moneyline
The timing of this matchup couldn't be more interesting. Baylor fired Dave Aranda after he went 40-40 in just under seven seasons. UCF is coming off an upset of No. 2 BYU in one of the strangest endings in recent college football memory.
It might seem odd to back the Bears on the road against the Knights, but this is a letdown spot for UCF and a tough matchup for its offense. I like Baylor, which is 5-2 ATS, to cover up to -1.5, but I'd rather play it safe with the moneyline.
Whether you believe in the fired-coach bump or not, our Colby Marchio does. He's backing the Bears, too, in his Baylor vs. UCF prediction. His reasoning: Baylor's defense should overwhelm UCF's offense.
The Bears rank 12th nationally in havoc rate (19.7%), which spells trouble for a Knights offense that has asked backup QB Keyone Jenkins to be nearly flawless over the last two games (one turnover-worthy play and two sacks on 29 pressures). Jenkins hasn't faced a defense as opportunistic as Baylor's, which is one of only three Power Four teams with at least eight interceptions and 27 sacks.
UCF's defense also faces a tough matchup. The Knights have a great run defense but rank just 101st in pass success rate (46.6%). Baylor QB DJ Lagway is a gunslinger, but he has the talent to make splash plays if he protects the ball.
Kent State vs Sacramento State: Sacramento State +9.5
Sacramento State is bad, but backing Kent State to win by double digits in a West Coast road game? I can't bring myself to do that, and I like Sac State to cover at +7.5 or better against the Golden Flashes.
In four road games this year, Kent State is 0-4 ATS and has been outscored 183-12. Sac State is worse than the four teams Mark Carney's program has faced on the road. But this is also a Friday night game across the country, something the "prime minister" hasn't had to deal with since taking over the program.
Kent to Sacramento is more than 2,300 miles, and these teams are almost equally terrible in every way. It's a big ask for the Golden Flashes to win by 10 or more on the road in a game between the team ranked 132nd by SP+ (Kent State) and the team ranked 138th (Sac State).
The Hornets are also surprisingly competent at running the ball and stopping the run. They're 65th nationally in rushing success rate on offense (44.4%) and 47th in rushing success rate on defense (42.3%).
More college football Week 9 picks and predictions
- Baylor vs UCF prediction, picks and odds
- College football Top 25 predictions and watchability ratings: Week 9
- College football Week 9 picks against the spread
- College football Week 9 moneyline picks
- College football Week 9 Over/Under picks
- College football underdog picks and upset predictions: Week 9
- Group of Six college football predictions: Week 9
- Brad Powers' college football best bets: Week 9
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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