It's been a spooky college football season for AP Top 25 programs, with top-10 teams losing 11 games over the previous three weeks, the most over any three-week span in AP poll history.
While there's been more parity than ever thus far this season, my Week 9 college football Top 25 predictions expect this Saturday's slate to be a treat for favorites.
With only two ranked matchups on Saturday, my Top 25 college football picks are dressing up as chalk for Halloween.
College football Top 25 predictions & watchability ratings: Week 9
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Watch Rating |
Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 Floridavs.  Georgia |
5/5 | -11.5 🟡 |
49% |
 Arizonavs.  Texas Tech |
5/5 | -3.5 🟡 |
49% |
 Ohio Statevs.  USC |
4/5 | -6.5 🟢 |
52% |
 Utahvs.  Cincinnati |
4/5 | -6.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Wisconsinvs.  Iowa |
4/5 | -3.5 🟡 |
47% |
 Auburnvs.  Ole Miss |
3/5 | +13.5 🟡 |
53% |
 Minnesotavs.  Indiana |
3/5 | -20.5 ⚪ |
50% |
 Northwesternvs.  Oregon |
3/5 | -3.5 ⚪ |
50% |
 Texas Statevs.  Boise State |
3/5 | -10.5 🟡 |
51% |
 Miamivs.  North Carolina |
2/5 | -14.5 🟡 |
48% |
 Arizona Statevs.  BYU |
2/5 | -16.5 🟡 |
50% |
 Virginiavs.  Wake Forest |
2/5 | -11.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Oklahoma Statevs.  Iowa State |
2/5 | -9.5 ⚪ |
50% |
 Missourivs.  Arkansas |
2/5 | -9.5 🟢 |
50% |
 SMUvs.  Syracuse |
2/5 | -9.5 🟡 |
54% |
 Mississippi Statevs.  Texas |
2/5 | -20.5 ⚪ |
50% |
 Nevadavs.  UCLA |
1/5 | -21.5 ⚪ |
53% |
 Notre Damevs.  Navy |
1/5 | -30.5 ⚪ |
51% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Tier 1 watchability for Week 9 (must-watch)
Florida (17) vs Georgia (3)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Georgia -11.5 🟡
- ML pick: Georgia (78%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 ⚪
This year's Florida vs. Georgia rivalry is extra interesting in theory. The last time the Bulldogs played, they were upset by Auburn, and the last time the Gators played, they upset Texas. But Jon Sumrall is taking on a pissed-off Kirby Smart coming off a bye week, and it's the first World's Largest Cocktail Party being played in Atlanta, a far shorter drive from Athens than Gainesville.
Despite Georgia tripping up against the Tigers, Smart is poised to continue dominating the Cocktail Party, and I'd take the Bulldogs to cover up to -12.5. Since 2017, Georgia is 8-1 under Smart against Florida, and though it's just 5-4 against the spread, the team boasts the clear advantage this year.
Florida leans heavily on its offense, and even if QB Aaron Philo plays (he missed the upset against Texas), the Gators could struggle to score more than 20 points. The Bulldogs rank top 25 nationally in available yards percentage (35.7%) and defensive success rate (35.4%), and have the athleticism in their back seven to handle Buster Faulkner's misdirection-heavy offense.
As for the Gators' defense, it's one of the worst in the Power Four, allowing 34.2 points per game in SEC play and ranking 125th in the country in defensive success rate (49.5%). Gunner Stockton should have no trouble moving the ball against Florida.
The Bulldogs lead the country in points per opportunity (5.21) and sit No. 2 in offensive success rate (51.9%). Eventually, they'll pull away and win their sixth straight Cocktail Party in a major way.
Arizona (22) vs Texas Tech (13)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | noon ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Texas Tech -3.5 🟡
- ML pick: Texas Tech (61%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 54.5 🟡
Texas Tech's upset loss to Cincinnati in the "Brendan Sorsby Bowl" last week was almost overshadowed by billionaire booster Cody Campbell, who's been acting like an NFL owner lately. Though Campbell is a slight distraction, this looks like a much larger letdown spot for a surging Arizona team than for the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech's College Football Playoff hopes are on the line against the Wildcats, and back at home in Lubbock against a one-dimensional Wildcats offense, the Red Raiders will rise to the occasion. I would take them to cover as many as 5.5 points.
For as spectacular as Arizona QB Noah Fifita has been, he hasn't had to deal with many quality defenses. The Wildcats have played one defense ranked in the top 25 by SP+ (BYU) and scored just 17 points, failing to cover as a 6.5-point dog. The Red Raiders are ranked No. 23 and are as opportunistic as it gets. They field one of only three defenses in the Power Four with 20+ sacks and 12+ interceptions.
Tech was exposed on the ground during its loss to the Bearcats, but Arizona's unit is a pass-heavy offense that ranks just 93rd in rush success rate (41.8%). That should allow defensive coordinator Shiel Wood to focus on stopping the pass and lean on a pass rush averaging 23.9 pressures per game.
Points will be hard to come by for both sides, but Arizona's defense ranks just 83rd in EPA per rush. J'Koby Williams and the Red Raiders' veteran O-line can carry the offense.
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Tier 2 watchability for Week 9 (worth watching)
Ohio State (2) vs USC
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
- ATS pick: Ohio State -6.5 🟢
- ML pick: Ohio State (68%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 ⚪
The sky is falling at USC after it completely no-showed as a 1.5-point favorite against Wisconsin last week, scoring a season-low seven points during a 17-point loss. Not only is head coach Lincoln Riley's seat heating up, but given his Texas roots, he's even been connected to the opening at Baylor.
Somehow, the situation is worse for the Trojans than for an Ohio State program that's expected to be without its Heisman finalist QB, Julian Sayin, for the rest of the season. If Sayin were playing against USC, the Buckeyes would be favored by closer to two touchdowns, and even without him, I like them to cover -8.5 or better.
Ryan Day just enjoyed a bye week to figure out his QB situation with backups Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair, and what better team to get things going against than USC? The Gary Patterson defensive coordinator hire has been one of the worst in the country, with the Trojans ranked outside the top 100 in defensive success rate (46.8%) and net adjusted EPA per play. They're not stopping Jeremiah Smith.
The Buckeyes also boast the best defense USC has seen this season. Matt Patricia's unit is ranked No. 1 by SP+ and sits fifth in success rate (36.4%), fifth in EPA per pass, and seventh in available yards percentage (61.6%). It's too big of an ask for Jayden Maiava to keep this within a touchdown.
Utah (6) vs Cincinnati
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 3:45 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Utah -6.5 🟡
- ML pick: Utah (69%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 56.5 ⚪
Both of these programs are coming off massive wins last week, with Utah staying undefeated by beating a top-25 Houston team with College GameDay in town and Cincinnati winning the Sorsby Bowl. But I think the Bearcats winning against the Red Raiders makes this a far larger letdown game for them than the Utes.
Utah isn't going to screw around and be ill-prepared for a team that just upset a top-10 program in its own conference. If anything, Utah is going to try to pile on and really flex that it's the team to beat in the Big 12. And with Morgan Scalley 6-1 ATS in his first season, I'd play the Utes at -8.5 or better.
Heading into Week 8, Houston fielded the No. 1 offense in the country by success rate and EPA per play, and managed 13 points against Utah. The Utes are a bad matchup for Cincinnati's run-first offense, with Utah's defense ranking 11th nationally in EPA per rush and eighth in rushing yards allowed per game (88.3).
If Cincy can't get into a rhythm on offense, Devon Dampier and Utah's defense will run away with this game, literally. Utah is averaging 221 rushing yards per outing, and the Bearcats' run defense is suspect at best, ranking 103rd in EPA per rush.
Wisconsin (25) vs Iowa
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | noon ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Iowa -3.5 🟡
- ML pick: Iowa (60%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 37.5 🟡
This will be the most Big Ten football game of the season, with neither offense likely to score 20+ points and both defenses among the best in the conference. It will come down to the wire, but I trust Kirk Ferentz to win a mucky game against a similarly built team coming off its most significant win of the Luke Fickell era (Iowa is the play up to -5.5 for me).
The Badgers are 1-2 ATS away from home this season and have been struggling against quality defenses, averaging 10 points per game when facing units ranked top 20 by SP+. The Hawkeyes' defense is ranked No. 10 and has allowed more than 19 points just twice this season.
Wisconsin has run the ball poorly for most of the season while sitting 95th in rush success rate (41.2%), and Iowa's defense ranks second nationally in EPA per rush. That will put a ton on QB Colton Joseph's shoulders. He's been hard to trust while posting a 4.6% turnover-worthy play rate and 66.5% adjusted completion rate.
Obviously, Iowa will need to score to cover, but the Hawkeyes have one of the best offensive lines in the country. The O-line should be able to neutralize the Badgers' front seven enough to drag Iowa to a win in the ballpark of 17-7.
Tier 3 watchability for Week 9 (interesting)
Auburn vs Ole Miss (12)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 12:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Auburn +13.5 🟡
- ML pick: Ole Miss (81%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 57.5 🟡
Asking Trinidad Chambliss to put on a Superman cape every Saturday has finally caught up to Ole Miss, and although I don't think the Rebels will drop a second straight game, they'll fail to cover the spread in a second straight game.
Auburn can cover +10.5 or better on the road against an Ole Miss defense that continues to struggle. The Rebels' defense ranks 104th in the country in EPA per rush, making this a terrible matchup against Tigers QB Byrum Brown. Brown ranks No. 2 among all QBs in rushing yards after contact (508) and No. 3 in 15+-yard runs (9).
Ole Miss is allowing the most rushing yards per game in the SEC (161.1), and its best defensive player, Will Echoles, was banged up against Texas. Brown's dual-threat ability and Alex Golesh's veer-and-shoot should expose Ole Miss' linebacker play and help it hang in a shootout.
The Rebels are also without star running back Kewan Lacy.
Minnesota vs Indiana (4)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
- ATS pick: Indiana -20.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Indiana (91%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 41.5 ⚪
Few teams are as hard to understand as Minnesota and Indiana are this season, so maybe that's why College GameDay is heading to Bloomington for such a boring matchup?
The Golden Gophers have won two rivalry trophies this season (Little Brown Jug and Floyd of Rosedale) that they rarely take. But they also suffered a 28-point loss to Purdue in their last road game. Indiana was a Nick Marsh foot landing in bounds away from being 8-0, but it's played three straight one-score games. That makes this matchup hard to handicap, but I do like IU to cover -20.5 or better.
There's a shot that a Hoosiers defense ranked No. 2 by SP+ shuts out Minnesota. Indiana's defense ranks top 20 nationally in points per opportunity (2.81) and havoc rate (19.6%), while Minnesota QB Drake Lindsey has logged almost as many turnover-worthy plays (eight) as touchdown passes (nine).
With two potential first-round picks at wide receiver in Charlie Becker and Marsh, I think Indiana's talent advantage will be noticeable in the second half.
Northwestern (T-20) vs Oregon
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 3:30 p.m. ET | Peacock
- ATS pick: Oregon -3.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Oregon (61%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Over 46.5 🟡
Neither of these teams has been playing as expected this season, with Northwestern being one of the largest overachievers in the country and Oregon being the biggest disappointment in all of college football. But will Chip Kelly's offense be able to do enough on the road against his former team? I have my doubts, which is why I'd play the Ducks up to -5.5.
While the Wildcats have been electric this campaign, they've played one quality opponent (Indiana) and couldn't run the ball at all. The Ducks' defense isn't near the Hoosiers' level, but it still ranks among the top 25 nationally in success rate (39.3%) and third/fourth down success rate (36.5%).
The news that Dante Moore is done for the season is a tough blow for Oregon. However, that could give Dylan Raiola more agency, and the firing of offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer could spark the offense. Jay Johnson is the new play-caller, and he'll likely push a Northwestern defense that's 122nd in rush success rate (48.3%) and expected to be down its best defensive player (Robert Fitzgerald).
This is also the first time Northwestern has ever played in Eugene, and West Coast trips can be tough on Big Ten teams.
Texas State vs Boise State (T-20)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 10 p.m. ET | The CW
- ATS pick: Boise State -10.5 🟡
- ML pick: Boise State (78%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 63.5 ⚪
The only ranked Group of Six school keeps on rolling, with Boise State winning by double digits for the fifth time this season last week. The Broncos haven't had much trouble at all this year, especially at home on the "smurf turf," and they're in the driver's seat to earn the G6 College Football Playoff spot.
Although Texas State's high-powered offense is impressive and is the key reason head coach GJ Kinne is being connected to the Baylor opening, I like Boise State to cover up to -11.5. The Bobcats don't boast the defense to keep this game tight, ranking 110th in success rate (47.4%) and 91st in available yards percentage (50.8%).
Boise State QB Maddux Madsen is second nationally in QBR (88.2), and the Broncos' running back duo of Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines is the best in the G6 (1,574 combined scrimmage yards and 14 TDs). Texas State won't win this shootout against a team that's fifth in net adjusted EPA per play on offense.
Tier 4 watchability for Week 9 (blowout brewing)
Miami (1) vs North Carolina
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Miami -14.5 🟡
- ML pick: Miami (84%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 52.5 ⚪
Nothing can slow Miami down, not even one of the greatest defensive minds in the history of football. The Hurricanes are 5-2 ATS, and their offense has helped them hit the Over in six of seven games. Bill Belichick, on the other hand, just gave up 31 points to Syracuse and lost on a two-point conversion in overtime. I'll take Miami up to -16.5, thank you.
Darian Mensah leads the country in QBR (89.7), and star wide receiver Malachi Toney isn't far behind him in the Heisman Trophy odds race. That duo has the Canes ranked No. 1 nationally in pass success rate (58.6%) and points per game (49). Miami has scored 41-plus points in six of seven games, and North Carolina has scored more than 26 points just once against an FBS opponent.
Arizona State vs BYU (8)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: BYU -16.5 🟡
- ML pick: BYU (86%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 ⚪
Maybe if Arizona State didn't have such a precarious QB situation, I could see them hanging with a BYU team fresh off one of the craziest two weeks in college football history (upsetting No. 2 Notre Dame and then being upset as the No. 2 team in the country by UCF). But the Sun Devils are expected to start true freshman Jake Fette.
Fette has registered just eight career pass attempts and is starting because Mikey Keene is injured. Keene took over for the benched Cutter Boley, who lost three of his four starts against P4 teams by 28+ points. With BYU being at home and its offense ranking top 20 in success rate (49.1%), I don't think ASU will be able to keep up.
I like the Cougars to cover up to -20.5 against a Sun Devils team that's 1-3 ATS since the start of the month.
Virginia vs Wake Forest (14)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 3:45 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- ATS pick: Wake Forest -11.5 🟡
- ML pick: Wake Forest (80%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 🟡
Virginia just lost at home on Friday night to Duke after blowing a 16-13 fourth-quarter lead and giving up a touchdown on a trick play with under two minutes left. Now the Cavaliers need to go on the road against a Wake Forest squad coming off a bye and expected to have star receiver Carlos Hernandez in the lineup.
Wake can cover up to -13.5 against an injury-ravaged Virginia team with more than a dozen players listed as out on the ACC injury report. With Hernandez and Gio Lopez leading the offense, the Demon Deacons should feast on Halloween. Those two have Wake's offense ranked No. 1 nationally in net EPA per play.
Oklahoma State (24) vs Iowa State
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 7 p.m. ET | FS1
- ATS pick: Oklahoma State -9.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Oklahoma State (75%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 57.5 🟡
There's a reason Drew Mestemaker has jumped to the top of the 2027 NFL Draft odds alongside Jeremiah Smith. He's been one of the most impressive QBs in the country, and every week Mestemaker is making NFL-level throws in an offense that ranks top 20 in EPA per pass and success rate (50.1%).
That doesn't bode well for an Iowa State team that's offensively inept.
Against ranked opponents this year, the Cyclones are averaging 10.7 points per game and are 1-3 ATS in those outings. While Oklahoma State doesn't field the best defense in the Big 12, it's capable enough of stopping an offense that's 110th in success rate (40.9%). But I only like the Pokes up to -9.5.
Missouri (23) vs Arkansas
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 7:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Missouri -9.5 🟢
- ML pick: Missouri (76%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 49.5 ⚪
Nobody should trust this Arkansas team to show up against a quality opponent, and if Chris Marshall doesn't play (he's questionable), the Razorbacks' offense might not score. Coming off a bye, Missouri can cover up to -12.5 on the road against an Arkansas team that's 1-3 ATS vs. quality opponents, losing by an average of 23.7 points.
The Tigers have one of the best QBs in the country in Austin Simmons, who has them ranked 31st in EPA per pass, and he should cook an Arkansas defense that's 114th in success rate (47.5%). And Missouri's defense is even better than its offense, sitting 16th nationally in havoc rate (19.5%).
SMU (19) vs Syracuse
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | noon ET | ESPN2
- ATS pick: SMU -9.5 🟡
- ML pick: SMU (75%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 58.5 🟡
This could be a letdown spot for a Syracuse team that just pulled off a wild win over North Carolina with freshman phenom Calvin Russell III catching a game-clinching two-point conversion. And while Russell and fellow receiver Umari Hatcher are both legit threats, there's not much else going on with the Orange. I'll take SMU at -11.5 or better.
Syracuse's QB situation remains uncertain with Steve Angeli questionable and both Amari Odom and Malachi Nelson out. Meanwhile, SMU has covered in two straight games with QB Kevin Jennings thriving. He has the Mustangs ranked ninth in the country in EPA per pass and 14th in available yards percentage (59.1%).
Mississippi State vs Texas (11)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Texas -20.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Texas (90%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 50.5 🟡
With everything on the line last week, Texas dominated the first half against Ole Miss and survived the second half to win and cover against the Rebels. Now they play Ole Miss' biggest rival, who just announced star QB Kamario Taylor is out for the season.
Without Taylor, Texas can cover up to -20.5 against the Bulldogs. Mississippi State has lost its last three games by an average of 24 points, and freshman walk-on QB Billy Puckett isn't going to make a dent against a Longhorns defense that's ranked No. 6 in success rate (37.6%).
To make matters worse for Mississippi State, the Longhorns might have Colin Simmons, Hollywood Smothers, and Cam Coleman for this game, according to the SEC injury report.
Tier 5 watchability for Week 9 (it's still football)
Nevada vs UCLA (7)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | 4:15 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
- ATS pick: UCLA -21.5 ⚪
- ML pick: UCLA (93%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 43.5 🟡
Bob Chesney continues to pull off the most impressive coaching job in the country, with UCLA being one of just three undefeated teams and the only one of those squads that's covered in every game. The Bruins have covered in each of their two contests since QB Nico Iamaleava was lost for the season.
With a defense that's No. 1 in the country in net EPA per play, UCLA can move to 8-0 ATS against Nevada. But I would only take the Bruins at -22.5 or better.
Notre Dame (5) vs Navy
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 31 | noon ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Notre Dame -30.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Notre Dame (97%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 56.5 🟡
Marcus Freeman doesn't mess around against Navy. In his five rivalry games against the Midshipmen since taking over at Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS. In each of the last two seasons, Notre Dame beat Navy teams that won 10-plus games by an average of 38 points. This Navy team is 2-5 and likely won't make a bowl game. But I'd only play Notre Dame at -30.5 or better.
Give me the favorite in a game between a college football national championship odds contender and a G6 team with a losing record every time.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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