Each week during the season, I’ll review my biggest college football power-ranking adjustments from the prior week and the best spot bets.
Best bets are 4-0 over the last two weeks.
This week, we’re taking advantage of a couple of quarterback injury situations that I don’t think are being properly priced in the market. You can still take advantage of both in this week's college football picks.
Week 9 power rankings for the Top 10
| Rank | Team | Last week | This week | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 91.44 | 91.94 | 0.5 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 91.40 | 91.40 | 0.0 |
| 3 | Ohio State | 90.28 | 90.28 | 0.0 |
| 4 | LSU | 87.16 | 89.16 | 2.0 |
| 5 | Miami (FL) | 88.65 | 89.15 | 0.5 |
| 6 | Indiana | 88.53 | 88.03 | -0.5 |
| 7 | Alabama | 87.88 | 87.38 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Texas | 86.57 | 86.57 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 85.27 | 85.27 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Florida | 82.71 | 82.71 | 0.0 |
Brad Powers Week 9 top picks
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Brad Powers Week 9 power rankings
Ohio State -6.5 over USC (Oct. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET)
My power rankings make Ohio State an 8.5-point favorite in this game, easily crossing through the key “7” number.
I downgraded Ohio State 3.5 points for the loss of quarterback Julian Sayin, who is out indefinitely with an injury. The market appears to have downgraded the Buckeyes at least five points.
I’m not the biggest Julian Sayin fan, especially in big games where he underperformed vs. Miami and Indiana at the end of last season and then did not play well vs. Texas and Indiana this year.
With a bye week to prepare for this game, I expect Ryan Day and company to have a competent game plan with both backups Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair.
Remember, this is still an Ohio State team with the country's best wide receiver, Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes rank in the top 5 in yards-per-play, yards-per-game, and points-per-game margins and have played a tougher schedule than USC.
On the other side, what does USC do well? The Trojans don’t rank in the top 30 in yards-per-play, yards-per-game, or points-per-game averages on either offense or defense.
When you think of a Lincoln Riley offense, you think explosive. That’s not the case this year, as they rank No. 104 in explosiveness (EPA on successful plays).
Finally, I’m not rewarding USC with full home-field advantage here. I think Ohio State fans will make up at least 30% to 40% of the crowd. Plus, if things do not go well early for USC, its own fans could turn on it.
Connecticut +1.5 over Air Force (Oct. 31, 3 p.m. ET)
Air Force is down to a third-string quarterback, and I don’t think it is being properly priced in the market.
The starter, Liam Szarka, is out for the season due to a leg injury. The backup quarterback Evan Medders, who has been its best player the last three weeks with 381 rushing yards, is out this week with turf toe.
Air Force will now go with Josh Johnson or freshman Howard Fisher.
A case could be made that Connecticut is already the better team. Both teams have played schedules of similar strength, per Jeff Sagarin’s ratings (Connecticut No. 118, Air Force No. 119). However, Connecticut is +1.3 in yards-per-play margin while Air Force is -0.1 on the season.
My ratings think we have the wrong team favored.
Biggest upgrades from last week
📈 Delaware up 3.5 points
Delaware saw the return of QB Nick Minicucci last week and promptly won 61-38 over Missouri State as a 3-point favorite. Delaware had scored a combined 47 points in its previous three games without Minicucci, who was hurt early in the Virginia game.
With Minicucci back in the lineup, look for Delaware to make a run at the CUSA championship game. Finally, Delaware followed up last week’s upgrade by beating Western Kentucky 35-21 as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday night.
📈 UL-Monroe up 2.5 points
Pay attention to the market. Despite entering the game 0-6, ULM went from a 17.5-point underdog to a 13-point underdog at Troy last week. ULM would win the game outright 21-14. It was the second straight week it took a lot of money late in the week once the limits opened up.
📈 LSU up 2.0 points
Last week, LSU dominated Auburn 38-17 as a 7-point road favorite. LSU led 31-10 at halftime, and Auburn scored a TD in the final seconds to make the final more respectable.
The Tigers had a 552-271 yardage edge. LSU is up to No. 4 in my power rankings and ranks No. 2 nationally, outgaining its opponents by 252 yards per game.
The Tigers host Alabama and Texas and will be favored in their final four games. I bet them -150 to make the playoffs this week.
Biggest downgrades from last week
📉 NC State down 3.0 points
NC State lost outright to Stanford 31-28 as a 7.5-point favorite. There was nothing fluky about the game as the Wolfpack got outgained by nearly 100 yards, and they scored a TD in the final 90 seconds to make the final respectable.
After the game, NC State fired longtime head coach Dave Doeren, the winningest coach in school history. On Monday morning, there were "whispers" that some starters may sit out this week.
📉 Michigan State down 3.0 points
The first season under Pat Fitzgerald has not gone well. The Spartans have lost six straight games after starting 2-0. They may be the most banged-up team in the country, with multiple starters out.
Last week, they were down to a third-string freshman QB. Michigan State lost 28-10 to UCLA as a 16.5-point underdog. The box score was much worse as the Spartans got outgained 443-156.
📉 Old Dominion down 3.0 points
Old Dominion is just 1-7 ATS this season, failing to cover by 10.1 points per game. That ties it for the worst ATS record in the country. It doesn't look like it will get better anytime soon.
Last week, it lost to Louisiana Tech 26-0 as a 13.5-point underdog. Old Dominion was down to a third-string QB, and the offense was limited to minus-13 yards rushing. One of my first bets this week was against Old Dominion (Marshall -2.5).
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