Ohio State vs USC   Picks & Props

With Ryan Day expected to start true freshman Luke Fahey at QB, I like the Under at 49.5 or better. The Buckeyes have the No. 1-ranked defense by SP+, and USC's offense was awful against Wisconsin. And with Fahey at QB, I don't think Ohio State will score enough against a bad Trojans defense to hit the Over.

Even with Ohio State's QB situation, I like the Buckeyes to cover -8.5 or better. Ohio State's defense is arguably the best in the country, ranking fifth in success rate (36.4%), 14th in EPA per dropback, and third in available yards percentage (30.6%). USC is coming off its worst offensive performance of the year (239 yards, seven points vs. Wisconsin).

Assumed to be the WR1 heading into the season, Tanook Hines took a while to get back to full health. He's now playing a full-time role and has 40+ yards in three straight games. 

My power rankings make Ohio State an 8.5-point favorite in this game, easily crossing through the key “7” number. With a bye week to prepare for this game, I expect Ryan Day and company to have a competent game plan with both backups Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair. Remember, this is still an Ohio State team with the country's best wide receiver, Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes rank in the top 5 in yards-per-play, yards-per-game, and points-per-game margins and have played a tougher schedule than USC.

This is about as good a spot for true freshman Luke Fahey to take over under center for Ohio State. He's had two weeks to prepare and still has Jeremiah Smith to lean on against a defense that ranks 106th in opponent yards per attempt.

The Trojans will be a non-factor on the ground (86th in yards per carry), and OSU's elite secondary (No. 1 in yards per attempt) will get just enough stops for the Buckeyes to find some seperation on the scoreboard.