Week 9 of the college football season brings some interesting matchups, with Arizona visiting Texas Tech, Wisconsin heading to Iowa, and Ohio State facing USC in a Saturday night showdown.
I'm looking for value on several road underdogs while backing a few favorites I trust to get the job done.
Here are my latest college football moneyline picks for Week 9, along with more college football picks to consider this weekend.
Week 9 college football moneyline picks
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Baylor vs  UCF |
50% |
 Arizona vs  Texas Tech |
38% |
 Wisconsin vs  Iowa |
40% |
 SMU vs  Syracuse |
74% |
 Kansas State vs  Colorado |
55% |
 UConn vs  Air Force |
43% |
 Northwestern vs  Oregon |
41% |
 Kansas vs  TCU |
65% |
 Ohio State vs  USC |
70% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 9 CFB moneyline picks
Baylor vs UCF: UCF
UCF is coming off its biggest win of the season, knocking off previously unbeaten BYU 39-31 behind three touchdown passes from Keyone Jenkins.
Baylor, meanwhile, has dropped two straight and managed just six points against TCU before losing to Kansas. The Bears can move the ball through the air, but their inconsistency worries me.
With Jenkins settling in as the starter and UCF playing at home, I'll take the Knights.
Arizona vs Texas Tech: Arizona
Arizona has won five straight, including a 39-3 demolition of Iowa State, and its passing attack is averaging more than 310 yards per game.
That's bad news for a Texas Tech defense allowing roughly 266 passing yards per contest. The Red Raiders also just surrendered 37 points to Cincinnati in their first loss.
Texas Tech can control games on the ground, but Noah Fifita has the weapons to expose its secondary.
Wisconsin vs Iowa: Wisconsin
Wisconsin held USC to seven points last weekend and has allowed just 10 combined points in its last two victories. Iowa is coming off a 13-10 loss to Minnesota, and its offense has struggled against tougher defenses.
With this game's total sitting around 37 points, neither side has much room for mistakes. I'll back the Badgers at a 40% probability, trusting their defense to keep this close enough to steal.
SMU vs Syracuse: SMU
SMU has won six of seven games and just hung 59 points on California. The Mustangs have the offensive firepower to make Syracuse chase points, which isn't where the Orange want to be.
Syracuse has struggled to put together complete performances, while SMU has been much more reliable against conference competition.
The price is steep, but I trust the Mustangs to create enough scoring opportunities to take care of business.
Kansas State vs Colorado: Kansas State
Colorado's defense has become a serious problem, allowing 57 points to Oklahoma State last weekend and 29 to Texas Tech earlier this month.
Kansas State should be able to exploit those weaknesses, but Avery Johnson's uncertain availability is a concern. Backup Jacob Knuth is also battling an ankle injury, leaving the Wildcats with questions at quarterback.
Still, Colorado has lost five of seven, and I'm backing Kansas State to overcome its injury concerns.
UConn vs Air Force: UConn
UConn has scored 69 points across consecutive wins over Temple and UMass, and now gets an Air Force team dealing with serious quarterback problems.
Evan Medders, who rushed for 100-plus yards in three straight starts, is doubtful after leaving last week's loss to Wyoming.
With Liam Szarka already out for the season, Air Force could be down to its third starting quarterback.
That's a significant concern for an option offense that relies heavily on timing and execution.
Northwestern vs Oregon: Northwestern
Northwestern is 6-1 and coming off a convincing 42-14 win over Rutgers, while Oregon has dropped two of three. The Ducks have scored fewer than 20 points in all three games without Dante Moore, who isn't expected to return this season.
Oregon also fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer following last week's loss to Illinois.
With the Ducks scrambling to fix their offense, I'll take a Northwestern team that's been considerably more consistent at a 41% probability.
Kansas vs TCU: TCU
TCU's offense has been ugly, scoring 20 points or fewer in four straight games. Fortunately, the Horned Frogs have defended well enough to stay competitive, including holding Baylor to six points in a road win.
Kansas just edged that same Baylor team 25-24 and has allowed at least 35 points in two of its last three losses. TCU isn't pretty, but its defense and home-field advantage should be enough.
Ohio State vs USC: Ohio State
Ohio State just handed Indiana its first loss with a 19-15 road victory, showing it can win even when the offense isn't clicking. The Buckeyes have also held four straight opponents to 19 points or fewer.
USC, meanwhile, managed just seven points against Wisconsin last weekend. The Trojans have plenty of offensive talent, but Ohio State's defense is a much tougher assignment. I'm backing the Buckeyes to win another road test.
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