Best NFL Picks Today

Jefferson’s spike in involvement in Week 9 came with the Commanders receiving corps in shambles. Jefferson took part in 58% of snaps versus the Rams and drew seven balls for five catches and 58 yards receiving along with a touchdown. Player projections vary, considering the shakeups in the Washington receiving corps. Jefferson is forecasted between 10.1 and 23 receiving yards on Thursday, my number settling at 14 receiving yards. 

The Detroit Lions are a tight-end funnel defensively, allowing a league-high 73.7 receiving yards and 1.03 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends, both of which rank last in the NFL. Rookie Eli Raridon played more snaps than Hunter Henry last week and saw double the targets. His six red-zone targets also lead all New England pass catchers. With some uncertainty in the Patriots' backfield, we could also see a slight uptick in pass rate against Detroit in Berlin on Sunday morning, and this matchup is as good as it gets for the tight end that I have a fair price of 3.7x.

This yardage prop is in play up to 52% because a breakout game is coming for Rice. He’s recorded a respectable 102 receiving yards over the past two weeks despite an unsustainably low 1.3 aDOT. Rice paced the NFL in yards after the catch per reception with an 8.1 mark last season, and his 8.2 YAC/REC this year is right in line for the game-breaking playmaker. Plus, with the Falcons allowing nine wideouts to top 60 receiving yards through nine games, the matchup checks out for Rice, too.

The Bills have used multiple-TE sets at a rate of better than 50% in each of the last two weeks, including 64% against the Vikings last week. That resulted in Dawson Knox playing 18 more snaps than Dalton Kincaid, who doesn't look like he'll be the volume tight end we saw during the first couple of games this season. Buffalo continues to get creative in the red zone, keeping all of its longshot tight ends in play at their current prices. The Jets are a top-five matchup for opposing tight ends. Travis Kelce scored and led the Chiefs in receiving last week, Brock Bowers went for 7/92/2 in Week 8, and Greg Dulcich led the Dolphins in receiving the week before. Knox actually has more targets than Kincaid inside the 10-yard line, and I'd play him to 5.5x after getting 6x.

Ollie Gordon has taken over as Miami's workhorse; the matchup couldn't be much better, either, with Indianapolis surrendering 137 rushing yards per game and Gordon averaging close to 20 carries over the last four weeks. There's plenty of meat on the bone for Ollie to capitalize against a subpar defense that's allowed at least 100 yards on the ground six times this season. Run, Ollie, run.

The Panthers’ recent path has been loaded with tough teams, losing to Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and Denver. In fact, Carolina’s first half of the schedule has featured some heavy hitters and this trip to the Big East offers a change in gear. The New Orleans Saints’ defense sits 30th in DVOA, 30th in opponent success rate, and more importantly third last in QB pressures. That gives this Panthers’ pass protection a breather after allowing Bryce Young to feel the heat at a league-high clip.

This was 6x this week, and it's something I'd play down to 5.7x in a lay-up matchup for what might be the deepest team in football right now. The Jaguars should see a similar game script to their Week 9 matchup against the Ravens. Nate Boerkircher continues to carve out more snaps, playing 55% of them in a blowout win compared to 47% the week before. If the Titans can keep things competitive, the rookie tight end could see five targets as Brenton Strange's role as the TE1 continues to decline. The Titans allow the second-most passing yards in football at 258.3 per game, and that number jumps to 325.7 over their last three games. If you're trying to be profitable in TD betting, these are the types of prices and angles you need to consider. Hitting touchdowns at +200 or shorter makes it difficult to build a card with a 33% hit rate or better.

Tank Dell is coming off a team-high nine targets on just a 55% route share last week, and head coach DeMeco Ryans is suggesting we should see more of him going forward. This offense is healthy and dangerous against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 23+ points in three straight weeks to struggling offenses in Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans. I got Dell at 4.55x and would confidently play him down to 4x.

The Rams returned Myles Garrett in Week 9, and this stop unit instantly got a shot in the arm, scoring four sacks and two takeaways. Los Angeles took down Washington 20-13 and stayed well short of the closing total of 47.5 points. The Arizona Cardinals aren’t providing much push back. They’re fine with either Gardner Minshew or rookie Carson Beck under center after trading Jacoby Brissett last week. That’s asking a lot of those QBs, considering the porous pass protection.

Dallas’ defense isn’t ready for the 49ers’ jelly, and this Kyle Shanahan vs. Brian Schottenheimer/Christian Parker matchup is about as one-sided as Godzilla vs. Bambi. San Francisco could also have some WRs back in action just in time to shred the Cowboys’ Swiss-cheese secondary.

The Steelers are rested and ready, presenting the stiffest opposition the Bengals have drawn since their streak started. Cincinnati has sliced through the melted-butter stop units of Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee and Atlanta – all of which rank 22nd or worst in EPA allowed per play since Week 5. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has settled into its defensive schemes under new coordinator Patrick Graham. The Steelers sat 23rd in opponent success rate (46%) in the opening four games and have trimmed that allowance to 38.7% during this winning run.