Fernando Mendoza hasn't started an NFL game, but Tuesday's trade deadline saw him surge to the top of the NFL Rookie of the Year odds.
When the Las Vegas Raiders shipped Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, the NFL odds were subsequently thrown for a loop.
Now, the No. 1 overall pick and reigning Heisman Trophy winner is set to officially begin his tenure as the face of the franchise in Sin City.
If you're thinking about trading Fernando Mendoza as Offensive Rookie of the Year, here's how to approach it.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
| Player Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Fernando Mendoza |
22% |
 Jonah Coleman |
17% |
 Denzel Boston |
16% |
 Carnell Tate |
13% |
| KC Concepcion |
10% |
 Carson Beck |
6% |
 Omar Cooper Jr. |
5% |
 Jordyn Tyson |
3% |
Odds as of 11-11. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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How we got here
The Las Vegas Raiders never planned to rush Fernando Mendoza. After taking him No. 1 overall in April, Las Vegas signed Kirk Cousins to a one-year deal, and first-year head coach Klint Kubiak made it clear the starting job was the veteran’s to lose.
Mendoza's regular-season debut didn't come until Week 5, when he saw some garbage-time action in the Raiders' blowout loss to New England.
Fernando Mendoza with a strike for a first down https://t.co/I7k1qyrcRj
— T.J. Randall (@TJ_Randall12) October 11, 2026
Even after the Raiders slipped to 3-4, Kubiak kept with Cousins as the starter, though he said Mendoza would play at some point. Then came Week 9, when Cousins threw three interceptions in a loss at San Francisco, dropping the Raiders to 4-5.
Mendoza enters Week 10 with just eight career passing attempts, but the job and the odds board are now his.
Why Mendoza is the favorite
To put it simply, the OROY field has been extremely underwhelming this season. No, like REALLY underwhelming.
Denzel Boston leads all rookies in receiving yards (507) but doesn't rank among the league's top 20 receivers. He hasn't come close to breaking the race wide open the way Tetairoa McMillan did last season.
Meanwhile, Jonah Coleman is the leading running back candidate, but he hasn't topped 60 rushing yards in a game.
Carnell Tate has flashed his potential but has been inconsistent and missed Week 8 with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Jeremiyah Love, the preseason favorite, is on IR and now sits at just 1%.
The award also historically favors quarterbacks, with four of the last seven winners playing the position.
The schedule is the catch
Mendoza's first three starts are ROUGH, to say the least, beginning with the Raiders entering as 6.5-point home underdogs against Seattle.- Week 10 vs. Seahawks: The defending Super Bowl champs lead the NFL in both total yards and passing yards allowed per game and rank fourth in points allowed. They've held three of their last four opponents to 17 points or fewer.
- Week 11 at Broncos: Denver is riding a five-game winning streak and boasts 26 sacks through nine games.
- Week 12 at Browns: Cleveland hasn't allowed a 300-yard passer this season, limiting QBs to an 84.6 passer rating.
How to trade on Fernando Mendoza OROY odds
1. Don’t pay full price before Week 10. The next three games are the hardest on Mendoza's schedule, and a shaky debut against Seattle could push his price down. Splitting your buy across the next few weeks, instead of one big entry, gives you a cheaper average price if that happens.
2. You don’t have to hold to the end. Prediction markets let you sell before the award is decided. If Mendoza has a big game and his price jumps, you can lock in a profit, which is usually easier than waiting for the vote.
3. Hedge if you want to. Pairing a Mendoza "Yes" with a smaller position on Coleman or Boston covers you if either pulls ahead. It also lowers your payout if Mendoza wins.
4. Know what could go wrong. Rookie quarterbacks behind a middling line take sacks and make mistakes. The Raiders’ win total was set at 5.5, so team success won’t help his case. Any injury ends the bet. A strong stretch from Coleman or Boston would also eat into his lead quickly.
