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Washington @ N.Y. Giants

Nov 12 • 8:15 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

WAS

20.26 @ 18.90

NYG

Commanders vs Giants · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
WAS WAS	20.26	+2.5 -108 BetMGM	o40.5 -120 FanDuel	+118 bet365
NYG NYG	18.90	-2.5 -106 Caesars Odds	u41.5 -108 BetRivers	-130 Hard Rock Bet

Top Projection Stefon Diggs o41.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

o39.5-115

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New England @ Detroit

Nov 15 • 9:30 AM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

24.96 @ 28.28

DET

Patriots vs Lions · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
NE NE	24.96	+2.5 +105 Fanatics Sportsbook	o50.5 -113 BetRivers	+135 BetMGM
DET DET	28.28	-2.5 -120 bet365	u51.5 -115 FanDuel	-150 theScore Bet

Top Projection Jared Goff o0.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

o0.5+104

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Kansas City @ Atlanta

Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

23.81 @ 23.39

ATL

Chiefs vs Falcons · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
KC KC	23.81	-3.5 +100 Caesars Odds	o45.0 -110 BetMGM	-176 Caesars Odds
ATL ATL	23.39	+3.5 -114 BetRivers	u45.5 -115 bet365	+155 BetMGM

Top Projection Patrick Mahomes o10.5 Rushing Yards (+105)

o8.5-114

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Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets

Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

BUF

26.40 @ 19.67

NYJ

Bills vs Jets · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
BUF BUF	26.40	-7.5 -110 FanDuel	o50.5 -114 bet365	-410 DraftKings
NYJ NYJ	19.67	+7.5 -105 Fanatics Sportsbook	u51.0 -109 BetRivers	+350 BetRivers

Top Projection Breece Hall o56.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

o55.5-120

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Miami @ Indianapolis

Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

MIA

16.79 @ 23.23

IND

Dolphins vs Colts · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
MIA MIA	16.79	+3.5 -105 DraftKings	o37.5 -115 FanDuel	+165 bet365
IND IND	23.23	-3.5 -105 BetRivers	u38.5 -108 BetRivers	-182 BetRivers

Top Projection Daniel Jones o189.5 Passing Yards (-115)

o189.5-115

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Minnesota @ Green Bay

Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

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Predicted Score

MIN

20.18 @ 24.56

Vikings vs Packers · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
MIN MIN	20.18	+3.5 -107 BetRivers	o41.5 -108 DraftKings	+151 bet365
GB GB	24.56	-3.5 +100 theScore Bet	u42.0 -109 BetRivers	-170 DraftKings

Top Projection Pierre Strong Jr. o11.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

o10.5-107

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Carolina @ New Orleans

Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

CAR

24.89 @ 24.71

Panthers vs Saints · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
CAR CAR	24.89	+2.5 -105 BetMGM	o48.5 -110 BetRivers	+120 BetMGM
NO NO	24.71	-2.5 -105 Fanatics Sportsbook	u49.5 -105 theScore Bet	-130 DraftKings

Top Projection Tetairoa McMillan o59.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

o59.5-114

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Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

JAC

26.68 @ 17.02

TEN

Jaguars vs Titans · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
JAC JAC	26.68	-10.5 -105 FanDuel	o45.5 -118 FanDuel	-535 DraftKings
TEN TEN	17.02	+10.5 -108 Caesars Odds	u46.5 -109 BetRivers	+475 BetRivers

Top Projection Cam Ward o10.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

o10.5-115

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Houston @ Cleveland

Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

HOU

21.17 @ 17.13

CLE

Texans vs Browns · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
HOU HOU	21.17	-4.5 -110 Fanatics Sportsbook	o39.5 -114 bet365	-230 DraftKings
CLE CLE	17.13	+4.5 -105 bet365	u40.0 -110 BetMGM	+200 theScore Bet

Seattle @ Las Vegas

Nov 15 • 4:05 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

SEA

23.81 @ 19.08

Seahawks vs Raiders · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
SEA SEA	23.81	-6.5 -105 BetRivers	o40.5 -110 BetMGM	-278 BetRivers
LV LV	19.08	+6.5 -110 BetMGM	u40.5 -104 Caesars Odds	+250 theScore Bet

Top Projection Tre Tucker o26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

o25.5-115

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L.A. Rams @ Arizona

Nov 15 • 4:05 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

25.22 @ 17.08

ARI

Rams vs Cardinals · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
LA LA	25.22	-8.5 -114 BetRivers	o38.5 -120 theScore Bet	-425 DraftKings
ARI ARI	17.08	+8.5 -105 Fanatics Sportsbook	u39.5 -108 BetRivers	+360 Caesars Odds

Top Projection Matthew Stafford o0.5 Rushing Yards (+110)

o0.5+110

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San Francisco @ Dallas

Nov 15 • 4:25 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

28.63 @ 25.11

DAL

49ers vs Cowboys · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
SF SF	28.63	-3.5 -115 DraftKings	o55.5 -105 theScore Bet	-205 DraftKings
DAL DAL	25.11	+3.5 -104 BetRivers	u56.5 -113 FanDuel	+183 Caesars Odds

Top Projection Dak Prescott o10.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

o8.5-110

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Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Nov 15 • 8:20 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

PIT

19.78 @ 26.32

CIN

Steelers vs Bengals · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
PIT PIT	19.78	+3.5 -109 BetRivers	o48.5 -110 BetRivers	+160 Caesars Odds
CIN CIN	26.32	-3.5 -105 Fanatics Sportsbook	u49.5 -108 BetMGM	-175 theScore Bet

Top Projection Joe Burrow Score a Touchdown (Yes: +750)

+750

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L.A. Chargers @ Baltimore

Nov 16 • 8:15 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

LAC

18.35 @ 21.58

BAL

Chargers vs Ravens · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
LAC LAC	18.35	+4.5 -106 Caesars Odds	o37.5 -112 BetRivers	+190 FanDuel
BAL BAL	21.58	-4.5 -105 Fanatics Sportsbook	u39.5 -118 FanDuel	-215 theScore Bet

Top Projection Derrick Henry o75.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

o75.5-115

See all EV Projections

WAS @

NYG Thu, Nov 12 • 8:15 PM ET

Receiving Yards

Isaiah Likely o46.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Best Odds

o45.5 -113

Pick made: 12 hours ago

o48.5 -115

o50.5 -115

o45.5 -113

o48.5 -114

o45.5 -135

o47.5 -115

o47.5 -113

o49.5 -110

o47.5 -115

Isaiah Likely has been productive no matter who's playing quarterback for the Giants, averaging 56 receiving yards and clearing 50 in five of eight games. His best outing? Eleven catches for 94 yards against Washington in Week 5. The Commanders have allowed 68.75 receiving yards per game to tight ends, fourth-most in football.

Anytime Touchdown

Austin Ekeler Score a Touchdown (Yes: +355)

Best Odds

+330

Pick made: 12 hours ago

+280

+320

+300

+330

+300

+330

+300

The Giants rank dead last in opponent red-zone touchdown conversion rate, and I’m looking to Austin Ekeler to take advantage. He’s priced at just 21% on Kalshi compared to 34% for Rachaad White, despite getting one more touch than White last week. With their workloads this close, that price gap is too big for me to ignore.

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NE @

DET Sun, Nov 15 • 9:30 AM ET

Total

u51.5 (-120)

Best Odds

u51.5 -115

Pick made: yesterday

u51.0 -108

u51.5 -117

u51.5 -120

u51.5 -115

u51.0 -110

u50.5 -109

u51.0 -110

u50.5 +100

u51.0 -105

The Patriots’ thinning pass protection has thrown quarterback Drake Maye into the fire. He’s been sacked nine times in the last three games, with four coming on Sunday. Detroit’s defense is second overall in sacks (27) and ranks among the Top 10 teams in pressure rate and pass rush win rate at EPSN. The Lions lit up the scoreboard for 164 points in the opening five games but have put up tallies of 19, 19 and 20 points in their last three outings. However, we’re still seeing Detroit draw tall totals, like the one in Munich.

Rushing Yards

Jared Goff o0.5 Rushing Yards (+100) Projection 3.98 (Over)

Best Odds

o0.5 +115

Pick made: a minute ago

EV Model Rating

o0.5 +115

o0.5 -105

o0.5 +104

o0.5 +100

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 66.3 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 60.8 per game on average).. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, New England's DT corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.

+115 at bet365

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KC @

ATL Sun, Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Spread

KC -3.5 (+105)

Best Odds

-3.5 +100

Pick made: 9 hours ago

-3.5 -102

-3.5 -103

-3.5 -102

-3.5 -105

-3.5 +100

-3.5 -107

-3.5 +100

-3.5 -105

-3.5 +100

I’m confident in the Chiefs below the key number of 4 because the Kansas City defense is going to be the difference in this game. In particular, I expect the Chiefs to win on third downs and in the red zone. Kansas City has allowed the 10th-lowest third-down conversation rate and allows opponents to score in the red zone at the second-lowest clip. Offensively, the Falcons convert on third downs at the sixth-lowest rate while turning red-zone trips into touchdowns at middling, 15th-ranked clip. Additionally, Kansas City has allowed the sixth-lowest explosive play percentage, and Atlanta quarterback Michael Pinex Jr. ranks 25th in EPA per play while the Falcons are 26th in offensive DVOA over the past two weeks.

Receiving Yards

Travis Kelce o45.5 Receiving Yards (-135) Projection 49.8 (Over)

Best Odds

o45.5 -135

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o47.5 -115

o48.5 -110

o49.5 -114

o45.5 -135

o48.5 -117

o48.5 -115

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the model to run 65.9 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in football.. In this game, Travis Kelce is forecasted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 96th percentile among tight ends with 7.1 targets.

-135 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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BUF @

NYJ Sun, Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Spread

BUF -7.5 (-108)

Best Odds

-7.5 -110

Pick made: yesterday

-7.5 -125

-7.5 -111

-8.5 -110

-7.5 -110

-7.5 -115

-8.5 -105

-8.0 -109

-7.5 -110

-8.5 -105

With the Jets allowing the highest EPA per dropback across the past four weeks, my first Week 10 click is on the Bills. New York is a candidate to unload veterans ahead of the trade deadline, and Buffalo heads into Monday Night Football in Week 9 averaging the most points per game while ranking third in offensive DVOA. The Bills pull away in Week 10, and I suspect this number will dip closer to a double-digit spread by Sunday.

Rushing Yards

Josh Allen o25.5 Rushing Yards (-140) Projection 38.9 (Over)

Best Odds

o25.5 -140

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o26.5 -115

o28.5 -115

o25.5 -140

o28.5 -113

o28.5 -115

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Bills being a big 8-point favorite this week.. The projections expect the Bills to be the 4th-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 47.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. Josh Allen has run for substantially more yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).. This year, the poor Jets run defense has given up a monstrous 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 5th-worst in the league.

-140 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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MIA @

IND Sun, Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Passing Yards

Daniel Jones o189.5 Passing Yards (-115) Projection 234.19 (Over)

Best Odds

o189.5 -115

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o189.5 -115

The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Colts this year (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest level in the NFL against the Dolphins defense this year (81.2% Adjusted Completion%).. This year, the porous Dolphins defense has allowed the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing teams: a monstrous 9.07 yards.. The Dolphins safeties rank as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in defending receivers.

-115 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Daniel Jones o9.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Projection 13.65 (Over)

Best Odds

o9.5 -115

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o9.5 -115

The Colts have been the 9th-most run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 40.6% run rate.. The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Colts this year (a whopping 59.9 per game on average).. The Dolphins linebackers profile as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

-115 at bet365

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MIN @

GB Sun, Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Rushing Yards

Jordan Mason o43.5 Rushing Yards (-113) Projection 54.98 (Over)

Best Odds

o40.5 -140

Pick made: 9 seconds ago

EV Model Rating

o43.5 -110

o43.5 -114

o40.5 -140

o43.5 -113

o43.5 -115

The model projects the Vikings to be the 9th-most run-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.5% run rate.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are projected by the predictive model to call 66.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.. The projections expect Jordan Mason to accumulate 13.6 carries in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.. Out of all running backs, Jordan Mason grades out in the 87th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 50.0% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.. Jordan Mason has picked up 41.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football when it comes to RBs (78th percentile).

-140 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Receiving Yards

Matthew Golden o67.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Projection 74.3 (Over)

Best Odds

o65.5 -120

Pick made: 2 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o67.5 -115

o68.5 -114

o69.5 -114

o65.5 -120

o68.5 -113

o68.5 -115

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 61.7% of their downs: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

-120 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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CAR @

NO Sun, Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards

Tetairoa McMillan o59.5 Receiving Yards (-114) Projection 76.47 (Over)

Best Odds

o59.5 -114

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o65.5 -115

o60.5 -113

o60.5 -105

o59.5 -114

o60.5 -115

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Panthers to pass on 63.0% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 134.9 offensive plays called: the most out of all the games this week.. The Panthers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 61.0 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Saints defense has yielded the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (160.0) versus wideouts this year.

-114 at Caesars Odds

Passing Yards

Bryce Young o245.5 Passing Yards (-110) Projection 273.99 (Over)

Best Odds

o245.5 -110

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o258.5 -115

o248.5 -111

o245.5 -110

o246.5 -114

o247.5 -115

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Panthers to pass on 63.0% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 134.9 offensive plays called: the most out of all the games this week.. The Panthers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 61.0 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. This week, Bryce Young is expected by the predictive model to have the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.4.

-110 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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JAC @

TEN Sun, Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards

Carnell Tate o52.5 Receiving Yards (-114) Projection 64.99 (Over)

Best Odds

o50.5 -135

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o53.5 -115

o52.5 -114

o50.5 -135

o52.5 -117

o53.5 -115

This game's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Titans, who are big -10.5-point underdogs.. When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Titans profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.. This year, the porous Jaguars defense has been gouged for a staggering 172.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 4th-worst in the NFL.. The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against wide receivers this year, allowing 9.67 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the NFL.

-135 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Receiving Yards

Gunnar Helm o19.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Projection 22.06 (Over)

Best Odds

o19.5 -110

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o21.5 -115

o19.5 -110

o20.5 -105

o19.5 -110

o19.5 -115

-110 at DraftKings

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SEA @

LV Sun, Nov 15 • 4:05 PM ET

Receiving Yards

AJ Barner o20.5 Receiving Yards (-140) Projection 25.88 (Over)

Best Odds

o20.5 -140

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o25.5 -115

o22.5 -109

o22.5 -114

o20.5 -140

o22.5 -113

o22.5 -115

The Seahawks may pass less this week (and call more carries) because they be rolling with backup QB Drew Lock.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Las Vegas's collection of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

-140 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Rushing Yards

Drew Lock o6.5 Rushing Yards (-107) Projection 6.9 (Over)

Best Odds

o5.5 -140

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o9.5 -110

o6.5 -107

o6.5 -114

o5.5 -140

o6.5 -108

o6.5 -110

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seahawks to run on 47.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. This year, the poor Raiders run defense has yielded a whopping 151.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 2nd-most in football.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Las Vegas's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

-140 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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LA @

ARI Sun, Nov 15 • 4:05 PM ET

Total

u47.5 (-110)

Best Odds

u39.5 -108

Pick made: 2 days ago

u39.0 -108

u39.5 -113

u39.5 -112

u39.5 -115

u39.5 -110

u39.5 -108

u39.5 -113

u38.5 +100

u39.5 -110

The Rams returned Myles Garrett in Week 9, and this stop unit instantly got a shot in the arm, scoring four sacks and two takeaways. Los Angeles took down Washington 20-13 and stayed well short of the closing total of 47.5 points. The Arizona Cardinals aren’t providing much push back. They’re fine with either Gardner Minshew or rookie Carson Beck under center after trading Jacoby Brissett last week. That’s asking a lot of those QBs, considering the porous pass protection.

Rushing Yards

Matthew Stafford o0.5 Rushing Yards (+110) Projection 2.33 (Over)

Best Odds

o0.5 +110

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o0.5 +110

The Rams are a huge 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.. The model projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.67 seconds per snap.. Matthew Stafford's 6.84 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season conveys a significant progression in his rushing talent over last season's 6.06 mark.. This year, the feeble Cardinals run defense has been gouged for a colossal 132.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 6th-worst in the NFL.

+110 at bet365

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SF @

DAL Sun, Nov 15 • 4:25 PM ET

Moneyline

SF (-205)

Best Odds

-205

Pick made: 17 hours ago

-210

-205

-215

-218

-210

Dallas’ defense isn’t ready for the 49ers’ jelly, and this Kyle Shanahan vs. Brian Schottenheimer/Christian Parker matchup is about as one-sided as Godzilla vs. Bambi. San Francisco could also have some WRs back in action just in time to shred the Cowboys’ Swiss-cheese secondary.

Spread

SF -4.5 (-110)

Best Odds

-3.5 -115

Pick made: 2 days ago

-3.5 -120

-4.5 -102

-3.5 -115

-3.5 -118

-4.5 -114

-3.5 -115

-4.5 -105

This spread is going to swell quickly with early play on the Niners pushing the line through dead numbers and likely landing on San Francisco -6 at some point this week. Dallas’ defense isn’t ready for the 49ers’ jelly and this Kyle Shanahan vs. Brian Schottenheimer/Christian Parker matchup is about as one-sided as Godzilla vs. Bambi (Google it). San Fran could also have some WRs back in action just time to shred the Cowboys’ Swiss-cheese secondary.

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PIT @

CIN Sun, Nov 15 • 8:20 PM ET

Spread

CIN -3.5 (-105)

Best Odds

-3.5 -105

Pick made: yesterday

-3.5 -108

-3.5 -107

-3.5 -110

-3.5 -105

-3.5 -112

-3.5 -106

-3.5 -105

The Bengals have allowed the fourth-lowest rushing success rate through three games out of their Week 6 bye, and the Cinny offense is clicking with 37.3 points per game and the highest EPA per dropback during the stretch. Pittsburgh entered its Week 9 bye relying on the running game while ranked 22nd in passing DVOA with the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback, so look for the Cincinnati defense to make enough stops for the offense to pull away in this critical AFC North bout.

Passing Yards

Joe Burrow o287.5 Passing Yards (-113) Projection 321.42 (Over)

Best Odds

o285.5 -115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o287.5 -115

o287.5 -113

o289.5 -114

o285.5 -115

o286.5 -114

o287.5 -113

o288.5 -115

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.5% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.1. . Joe Burrow's 307.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a meaningful growth in his passing talent over last year's 196.0 mark.. Joe Burrow's 73.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive improvement in his passing precision over last year's 70.3% figure.. Opposing offenses have passed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (254.0 per game) versus the Steelers defense this year.

-115 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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LAC @

BAL Mon, Nov 16 • 8:15 PM ET

Rushing Yards

Derrick Henry o75.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Projection 95.21 (Over)

Best Odds

o75.5 -115

Pick made: 7 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o75.5 -115

With a 5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.. The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 49.0% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's contest, Derrick Henry is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 100th percentile among running backs with 22.8 carries.. Among all RBs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 98th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 72.3% of the workload in his offense's run game.. With a fantastic rate of 80.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (94th percentile), Derrick Henry rates among the best pure runners in football this year.

-115 at bet365

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For every matchup in an NFL season, our NFL computer produces selections for a variety of different betting angles. Our computer picks are based on a proprietary algorithm that values each team in the current week to produce moneyline, spread, and point total selections.

The table above, below the game picks, tracks our NFL computer's results over the last 100 games, outlining the record and profit for selections, based on $100 unit size. We track the profit based on both opening and closing lines for every matchup.

How to Use NFL Computer Picks

The easiest way to utilize our computer picks is to simply follow our selections for every matchup, what you'd call ailing the computer." But there are other ways to utilize our NFL computer picks, as well.

You can use our NFL computer as a jumping-off point to do more research into specific lines, cross-referencing with expert picks, which can be found above the selections for some matchups, recent NFL betting trends, and more.

As well, you can gauge the confidence of the matchup. The larger the projected score, the more confident the computer is in a specific pick.

Or, if you want to implement a system, betting only on underdogs, for example, you can look for matchups in which our computer likes the underdog to inform which picks you're going to hone in on for a given week.

We have these computer picks for every sport you're looking to wager on, as well:

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Moneyline

NFL moneyline picks are the simplest way to get in on the NFL action. All you have to do is simply bet on which team you think will win the game.

For moneyline picks, the favorite is represented with a minus sign (-) in front of the odds, while the underdog has a plus (+). However, you don't get the same profit for picking an underdog compared to a favorite. If the favored team is -120, a $100 bet on them would pay out $80 in profit and $180 total, if they win the game. The underdog winning at +150 would pay out a $150 profit, $250 total.

We have a complete breakdown of how to read NFL moneyline odds for these NFL computer picks.

Spread

While moneyline picks are the simplest, picking NFL games against the spread is probably the most common wager for regular NFL bettors.

To bet an NFL spread, you wager on whether a team will win by a certain number of points or more or if they'll lose by fewer points than the spread. For example, if the spread is -6.5 for the New England Patriots, you would win the bet if they win the game by 7 points or more. Or if a team is +6.5, you're betting on if they'll win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.

There is a correlation between moneyline odds and the spread, as books set these lines based on the same information.

You can read more about NFL spreads here.

Totals (Over/Under)

If you aren’t entirely sold on which NFL team will win or cover in an NFL game, you can still use our NFL computer picks to bet on the point total.

As opposed to taking a side, in total or Over/Under betting, you wager on whether both NFL teams will combine for a final score of more than (Over) or less than (Under) the total number of points set by oddsmakers.

The computer picks, and your handicapping of totals is more about how you think both teams will score points, not which team has the edge to win.

More NFL Picks & Betting Tools

Our NFL Computer Picks are a great way to place weekly football wagers, but you should also consider handicapping games yourself using some of our other tools. If you're looking to bet on long-term futures this football season, check out some of our other dedicated pages:

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