Panthers vs Titans Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 12: Finally, a Home Game for Tennessee

Somehow, the Titans are playing at home for just the fourth time in 2023. It's Week 12. And while their offense has been poor, their struggles have been limited to their away games. Our betting picks look at whether or not the homecoming will be fruitful.

Nov 26, 2023 • 08:10 ET • 4 min read
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If the NFL Week 12 odds were the Thanksgiving dinner table, Sunday’s game between the Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans would be your aunt’s nasty-ass casserole that nobody touches.

Luckily, we have sports betting to make this matchup somewhat appetizing. Think of the spread, total, and prop odds as cheese and bacon — they can make anything taste good.

Tennessee is a short favorite at home with some questions around the quarterback position. It appears that rookie QB Will Levis will be under center in Week 12, after missing practice with an ankle injury.

As for the Panthers, they’re sticking with their first-year quarterback Bryce Young despite a debut season that belongs at the bottom of a Red Lobster dumpster. They do have reinforcements showing up on the defensive side of the ball, which will be needed considering how crappy the Carolina offense is.

I chew on the spread and Over/Under total for this non-conference clash and give my best NFL picks for Panthers at Titans on Sunday, November 26.

Panthers vs Titans odds

Panthers vs Titans predictions

Nissan Field is a sight for sore eyes when the Tennessee Titans take their home field for just the fourth time this season.

Yeah, it’s Week 12 and the Titans have heard the cheers of the Music City faithful only three times before this weekend. Crazy, right?

This homecoming is especially sweet after a stretch of three straight road games for Tennessee, suffering losses at Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh. The Titans scored a collective 36 points during this skid but did face some sound defensive opposition.

That recent uphill climb and the Titans’ road-heavy sked is skewing how the market views this offense. Tennessee averages only 12.3 points per road game but has posted scores of 28, 27, and 27 in its three homestands.

The Week 12 team totals have Tennessee’s Over/Under at 20.5 points with the Over providing plus-money at most books.

The Carolina Panthers aren’t on par with those previous opponents in terms of defensive fortitude, even with some bodies coming back in the secondary. The Panthers surrender over 32 points per road game — second most in the NFL — and sit in the basement in advanced defensive measurements heading into Week 12.

The Titans will have rookie QB Will Levis under center for Sunday’s game, which gives this passing attack a dose of danger as the first-year pro can push the ball downfield and has hit guys like WR DeAndre Hopkins for home run plays.

The Tennessee rushing attack should feast on a poor Panthers run stop, as well. Carolina is 21st in run-stop win rate at ESPN and dead last in EPA allowed per handoff and opponent success rate per run.

The Titans still have a guy by the name of Derrick Henry. While he may not be involved in the offense as much, due to Tennessee often playing from behind, he’s still a force on the ground and in the red zone.

They have been bad inside the red zone on the road, scoring a touchdown on just 20% of their trips inside the 20-yard line, but find paydirt at a near 67% clip in Nashville. The Panthers, on the other hand, allow host teams to score on 80% of their red zone tries.

My best bet: Titans team total Over 20.5 (+105 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Panthers vs Titans same-game parlay

Titans team total Over 20.5

Titans moneyline

Derrick Henry anytime touchdown

With the Titans trending in the 4-point favorite range, it’s somewhat a “no-man’s land” of spreads. Keep it clean and take Tennessee to win outright.

Tennessee’s team total is a reflection of the past three games coming on the road against sound stop units. The Titans are a more potent offense at home, they just haven’t played there much.

Henry is still a goal-line weapon and Carolina stinks at keeping foes out of the end zone, allowing the most rushing touchdowns in the league.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Panthers vs Titans spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened between Tennessee -3.5 and -4 on Sunday and has been bouncing around that spot all week, with the market reacting to the Levis’ injury and then his return to practice.

Covers Consensus shows 68% of the early picks backing the Titans, and you can’t blame them considering the state of football in Carolina.

The Panthers are still stinging from a 33-10 beatdown at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, extending Carolina’s losing skid to three games. The Panthers’ pop-gun attack managed only 10 points and has scored 15 or less in the past four games.

The Titans offense hasn’t been much better, honestly. Tennessee has scored 16 or fewer points in five of its previous six games. That said, the Titans have faced a road-heavy schedule and all five of those lower-scoring outputs came away from home. The lone home game in that span was a 28-23 win over Atlanta.

The Titans see some crazy scoring splits inside Nissan Stadium versus their production on the road, scoring the ninth-highest points per play as a host but sitting just 30th in that stat as a visitor. Tennessee is 3-0 ATS and 2-1 Over/Under at home compared to 1-5 ATS and O/U on the road.

That rejuvenated offense does run into a strong version of the Panthers defense in Week 12. Carolina, which ranks 28th in Defensive DVOA and 30th in EPA allowed per play (just ahead of Tennessee at 31st), is expected to have Jeremy Chinn, Jaycee Horn, and C.J. Henderson back in the secondary.

The Over/Under for this game opened at 37 points and is down to 36.5, with Covers Consensus showing 57% of picks siding with the Under.

The Panthers are 3-7 Over/Under on the season, thanks in larger part to their offense coming up short and problems with the playcalling. Carolina is, however, 3-2 Over/Under on the road, allowing hosts to average more than 32 points against.

As for the Titans, we’ve seen their severe home/away splits above. Tennessee is 3-7 O/U on the year and runs one of the more methodical attacks, ranked 31st in seconds per play.

Levis has given the Tennessee passing game more pop, stretching the field with an average of 10.6 intended air yards per attempt — a jump from Ryan Tannehill’s IAY of 9.3 per attempt.

Panthers vs Titans betting trend to know

Carolina is 5-12 SU and 7-10 ATS in non-conference games since 2020. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Titans.

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Panthers vs Titans game info

Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Date: Sunday, November 26, 2023
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Titans -4.5, 38.5 O/U

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