NFL best bets and player props for Week 11

Nov 22, 2020 |
NFL best bets and player props for Week 11
Kansas City has scored in 33 of 37 quarters this year, including every quarter in four straight games. The Chiefs were also averaging 37 points per game over its last three heading into their Week 10 bye.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City has scored in 33 of 37 quarters this year, including every quarter in four straight games. The Chiefs were also averaging 37 points per game over its last three heading into their Week 10 bye.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It’s time to get those early numbers in the account. We’ve spent all week looking into every NFL market in search of value and great numbers—so you don't have to!  

Today, we’re playing McKissic & tell with a double shot, betting against the Jets four times in one game and riding a pair of Patriots in a great rushing matchup.

We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 11.

NFL Prop Picks for Sunday 

Rexy Time

Rex Burkhead has carved out a significant role with the New England offense this year. Fellow running back Damien Harris (questionable) is getting the early work but Burkhead has been sprinkled throughout the offense and has contributed on the ground and in the air.

Since the Patriots’ Week 7 loss to the 49ers, Burkhead has six of the team's 18 red-zone looks (five rushes and one target). He has three TDs over the last two weeks, led RBs in touches in Week 9, and led backs in routes ran last week.

No team is giving up more total yards to opposing running backs than the Houston Texans. Through nine games, Houston is allowing 190 yards per game to RBs. The Texans have surrendered 12 TDs to opposing RBs which is Top 5 in the league.

Sony Michel has yet to be activated off the IR, but if he does, it shouldn’t affect Burkhead too much as he is the man in the passing game, and Michel hasn’t played since Week 3. It also sounds like coach Bill Belichick isn’t sure about Michel’s availability.

PREDICTION: Rex Burkhead anytime TD (+187)

Damien Invasion

The Baltimore Ravens led the NFL for most rushes per game last year and it wasn’t even close. This year, the Cam Newton-led Patriots are on top of the rushing mountain, as their 33.4 rushes per game (38 rpg last three) pace the league. A big reason for New England leaning on the run is the emergence of second-year running back Damien Harris, who has three 100-yard games over his last six contests.

Harris is coming off a career-high 22 rush attempts against the Ravens’ No. 3 DVOA rush defense, per Football Outsiders, and gets a juicy matchup this week against the Texans’ last-place rush D.

Houston is allowing 154 rushing yards per game at a 5.5 yards per carry. Six opposing running backs have topped 75 yards rushing over the Texans’ last five games and Romeo Crennel’s team should see a heavy dose of Harris for this run-first New England team.

PREDICTION: Damien Harris Over 65.5 rushing yards (-120)

 

Gouging Gang Green

If you’ve been following along this season, then you should be aware of our infatuation with the “to score in every quarter” prop. In our opinion, it’s a unique prop that can reward backers with plus-money payouts. We’re 3-for-4 for three-plus units since we've been playing it, and have zeroed in on another spot in Week 11.

The New York Jets stink and seem like they’d rather lose than win. In doing so, they’ve allowed opposing teams to score in 33 of 36 quarters this year, and teams facing the Jets are 6-3 SU in scoring in every quarter. Gang Green has also given up a point in 11 straight quarters.

The Los Angeles Chargers are a middle-of-the-pack team in points per game (25.1) but match up well in the passing game against New York’s worst-ranked DVOA pass defense. L.A. has scored in three of four quarters in seven straight games and if there were a time to hang a number in each column, it would be Sunday at home versus the Jets. 

PREDICTION: Los Angeles Chargers to score in every quarter — YES (+120)

I Don’t Want to McKissic a Thing

The Alex Smith and J.D. McKissic bromance continued in Week 10 as the running back caught seven balls on 15 targets for 47 yards, topping both his reception and receiving yard props in the process. In the three games that Smith and McKissic have played together this year, the receiving back has accumulated 37 total targets.

Washington has no problem letting Smith pass the ball as the QB threw 55 passes last week, which was a career-high for the 14-year veteran. Over his last two games, Smith has thrown 87 total passes with 37 of those intended for his RBs. Smith loves a good check down.

McKissic is 4-1 O/U on both his receptions and receiving yards this year and faces a Bengals team that is allowing a 70 percent completion rate to opposing RBs. We might have to drop a double-shot on this one.

PREDICTION: J.D. McKissic Over 4.5 receptions (-160) and Over 37.5 receiving yards (-112)

NFL Prop Picks for Saturday 

Cowardly Ryan

The New Orleans Saints have forced six interceptions over the last three games. Taking one away from Nick Mullens isn’t anything special, but intercepting three Tom-Terrific passes in Week 9 has to mean something.

The Saints aren’t sure who is running the offense with Drew Brees out, but Dennis Allen’s defense knows who they are opposing as Atlanta’s Matt Ryan has faced New Orleans 23 times over his career.

The former MVP has yet to play NOLA this year, but over his last six games against New Orleans, Ryan has thrown a pick in each game and has eight total. Ryan has also tossed an interception in each of the divisional games the Falcons have played this year. 

PREDICTION: Matt Ryan Over 0.5 interceptions (-130)

 

Kareem of the Crop

We already expressed our Over interest in Cleveland RB Nick Chubb and his 71.5 rushing yards. Well, our interests know no boundaries in the Browns’ running game.

Even with the return of Chubb last week, RB Kareem Hunt got his share of the action. Hunt actually outperformed Chubb last week until the second-last play of the day as he finished with 19 carries for 104 scoreless yards. 

Hunt oddly struggled without Chubb in the lineup (3.9 ypc) but has proven quite the 1B to Chubb’s 1A when the duo are both running. In the five games that Chubb and Hunt have both played, the latter is averaging 5.5 yards per carry which is the same mark as Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook.

With Odell Beckham out and the passing game struggling, the Browns will hopefully lean on the run even more against the Eagles on Sunday. Philadelphia allows its opponents to run the third-most plays per game at 68. Expecting Hunt to see 14-16 carries is not a stretch.

PREDICTION: Kareem Hunt Over 57 .5 rushing yards (-115)

Piece of the Allen

No receiver in the league is averaging more receiving yards per game at home than the Chargers’ Keenan Allen. Through four games at the SoFi Stadium this year, Allen is sporting a league-best 114 receiving yards per match. This week, he gets the Jets and their 32nd-ranked DVOA pass defense.  

The Jets are allowing 15 catches and 194 yards to opposing WRs per game this year. New England’s Jakobi Myers set career highs in catches and yards in Week 9 against Gang Green, while the Chiefs had three players over 95 yards receiving the week before. 

Allen will likely draw New York’s slot-corner Corey Ballentine who is giving up three inches and 15 pounds to the LA receiver. Ballentine was just claimed off waivers last week from the Giants and if he isn’t good enough for the other New York, he’s perfect to bet against. 

PREDICTION: Keenan Allen Over 78.5 receiving yards (-115)

 

Mutual Punt

Over the last couple of seasons, we have yet to play a punting prop. There is probably a good reason for that, as cheering for the frailest guy on the team just ain’t fun. But when two of the most punt-happy teams in the league meet, we have to take notice. 

Pittsburgh and Jacksonville have punted more times over the last three games than any other teams in the league. Just last week, Jacksonville was involved in a game with 11 punts while the Steelers game saw 16 total punts.

Each team’s punters are getting extra work because the offenses are struggling to convert on third down. Over the last three games, the Jaguars are converting third downs at 38% while the Steelers are even worse at 37%.

Since Jacksonville’s QB Jake Luton has taken over the offense (two games), the Jags are averaging 5.5 punts a game. Both teams are struggling offensively and even the Jacksonville defense is forcing 4.7 punts per game over the last three weeks. We wouldn’t want you to play the least-exciting play in football if we didn’t like the situation. 

PREDICTION: PIT/JAX Over 8.5 punts (-122)

NFL Prop Picks for Friday

Sporting a Chubb

Nick Chubb came back last week after missing four games. The Cleveland Browns’ RB ran for 129 yards on 19 carries and a TD. His late 60-yard run definitely helped as he looked rusty at times, but with a week under his belt to catch up to speed, the league's No. 3 RB in rushing yards per game at 92.2 could only get better in Week 12.

The Browns also got Pro Football Focus' No. 1 guard back last week in Wyatt Teller, and the team rushed for 231 yards in poor playing conditions. This Sunday, the wind shouldn’t be a factor and the rain will likely be minimal,if any.

If Chubb gets 16-20 carries at his 6.1 yards per carry clip against a Philadelphia Eagles team that hasn’t seen a Top-10 rushing offense in three straight weeks, 70-plus rushing yards could be an easy task.

We have no problem taking one of the best RBs in one of the Top 3 rushing attacks in all of football, even with Kareem Hunt likely to see 13-16 rushes himself.

PREDICTION: Nick Chubb Over 71.5 rushing yards (-115)

 

Classical Lamar

Last week we won our only TNF prop bet as we faded the Tennessee Titans and their non-existent pass rush. Indianapolis Colts QB Philip Rivers had no problem going Over on his passing total of 260-plus yards as only the Seattle Seahawks have a worse pressure rate than the Titans.

This week, the Titans visit Baltimore and the struggling Lamar Jackson. Jackson is averaging just 195 passing yards per game this year but threw for 249 yards last week against the Patriots. New England also creates pressure at a terrible rate much like Tennessee.

It may be a perfect spot to buy low on Jackson’s passing total, as it's all the way down to 218.5 yards. The Titans are allowing more than 270 passing yards a game and 288.3 yards per game over their last three.

If Lamar can’t get things going against Tennessee’s No. 24 DVOA pass defense, then we may have to keep him away from our cards going forward.

PREDICTION: Lamar Jackson Over 218.5 passing yards (-115)

With Bells Deshaun

Sticking with QB passing totals, the Houston Texans offensive line has the best matchup this week per PFF. Deshaun Watson and the passing game are playing the Patriots, who generate pressure at a Bottom-10 rate and are allowing the highest yards per completion in the league.

New England may be allowing just 224 passing yards per game, but opposing QBs are gaining 12.1 yards on every completion. That number is even bigger on the road, at a league-high 13.2 yards per catch.

Pats CB Stephon Gilmore missed Week 10 and is questionable this Sunday after practicing on a limited basis this week. Without Gilmore last week, the Pats gave up 249 yards to Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, who hadn’t thrown for more than 208 yards since Week 1.

In his four home games this year, Watson is averaging 310 passing yards and has topped at least 275 yards every game.

PREDICTION: Deshaun Watson Over 280.5 passing yards (-115)

 

Luton-Free Diet

Outside of his first NFL pass that went for a 73-yard touchdown to DJ Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars sixth-round rookie Jake Luton has thrown for just 400 yards on 72 passes in two games. That 5.5 yards per pass attempt would rank him at the bottom of the league, next to Sam Darnold.

A matchup with the 9-0 Pittsburgh Steelers and their No. 3 DVOA passing defense could send the rookie packing, with Gardner Minshew recovering from his thumb injury. PFF has this as the worst matchup for any passing game at -79 percent, with the next worst matchup (Philadelphia) at -34 percent.

The Jaguars give up the highest pressure rate from their O-line, while the Steelers’ defense creates pressure at the highest-rate in the league. Luton and his 51 percent completion rate and 169 passing yards from last week look even worse, considering the Green Bay Packers were also without two of their top corners.

Another angle that could limit Luton’s attempts is how badly the Steelers have been playing against the run over the last three weeks. No team has allowed more rushing yards (567) than Pittsburgh over its last three games, so Jacksonville will most certainly pound RB James Robinson all day, especially with RB Chris Thompson hitting the shelf.

PREDICTION: Jake Luton Under 226.5 passing yards (-115)

NFL Prop Picks for Thursday

Money Making Murray

Sometimes you just have to keep hammering the same prop if you keep on winning. Case in point: Kyler Murray’s Over rushing total.

The Sophomore QB leads all QBs in rushing yards and only seven RBs have more rushing yards than the Cardinals’ quarterback.

Murray has hit the Over in his rushing total in four straight games and is 7-2 O/U on the season. His rushing total has sharply climbed over the last few weeks and now sits at 56.5 yards after 52.5 yards last week and 40.5 the week before. We aren’t scared of a little inflation, especially coming off last week’s miracle win, plus this week is in primetime and against Seattle’s Russell Wilson.

Seattle is in the bottom of the league in QB pressure generated, which will give Murray more time to see if the field opens up for him. Keep on banging the Over until further notice.

PREDICTION: Kyler Murray Over 56.5 rushing yards (-115)

 

Running and Steeling

Most would expect the 9-0 Steelers to roll the 1-8 Jaguars Sunday in Florida on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean the Jags can’t win us some money.

Since Jacksonville has started sixth-round rookie QB Jake Luton, RB James Robinson has averaged over 100 yards rushing and 20-plus carries. The Jaguars also covered in both those games.

Pittsburgh has allowed the most rushing yards over its last three games at an unbelievable 183 yards per game. No team is allowing more yards per carry to opposing backs than the Steelers since Week 7.

The Jaguars will pound Robinson against the Steelers’ suddenly-porous run defense as the RB has amassed the second-most carries since Week 7.

The one-win Jaguars have topped 16.5 points in four straight games and have a great chance to do it a fifth time at home in great weather conditions, despite their unbeaten opponent.

PREDICTION: Jacksonville team total Over 16.5 (-123)

Defense First, Offense Second

Sticking with Thursday night’s must-see matchup, we’re cheering for drama and second-half scoring in another unique game prop.

Both the Cardinals and Seahawks sit in the Top 5 in second-half points scored per game at 14.7 and 17.7, respectively. Surprisingly, neither team are in the Top-10 in first-half points per game. Both these teams have QBs who can will their offenses to score when it matters most.

The Bills and Cardinals combined for 37 of the game’s 62 points in the second half last week. While in the previous week, the Seahawks played the same Bills team and 44 of the game’s 78 points were scored in the second half.

Betting two halves against each other offers a new perspective on the same game and should keep bettors engaged throughout what should be a great Thursday night contest.

PREDICTION: Arizona-Seattle highest-scoring half – second half (-110)

 

Can’t Stop KC in 15

With Kansas City off last week, we had to wait way too long to play our favorite KC prop play. The wait is over, however, as Patrick Mahomes & Co. are back in action in Week 11 against the Raiders on Sunday night.

The Chiefs have scored in 33 of their 37 quarters this year and have scored in every quarter in four straight games. Kansas City was scorching hot heading into its bye, scoring an average of 37 points a game over its last three games. No team was scoring more points over that stretch.

Kansas City sits at 8-1 on the year with that only loss coming against the Raiders in Week 5. The defending champs will look for revenge on Sunday and having an extra week to prepare against Las Vegas’ No. 30 DVOA defense is a huge advantage.

We have played this prop four times (Kansas City twice, Buffalo, Arizona) and have yet to lose this unique but always plus-money prop.

PREDICTION: Kansas City to score in every quarter – YES (+110)

Year-to-date record: 102-77 (57 percent)

NFL Week 11 Prop Betting Card

  • Rex Burkhead anytime TD (+187)
  • Damien Harris Over 65.5 rushing yards (-120)
  • Los Angeles Chargers to score in every quarter — YES (+120)
  • J.D. McKissic Over 4.5 receptions (-160) and Over 37.5 receiving yards (-112)

     - - 

  • Matt Ryan Over 0.5 interceptions (-130)
  • Kareem Hunt Over 57.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • Keenan Allen Over 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
  • PIT/JAX Over 8.5 punts (-122)

     - - 

  • Nick Chubb Over 71.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • Lamar Jackson Over 218.5 passing yards (-115)
  • Deshaun Watson Over 280.5 passing yards (-115)
  • Jake Luton Under 226.5 passing yards (-115)

     - - 

  • Kyler Murray Over 56.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • Jacksonville team total Over 16.5 (-123)
  • Arizona-Seattle highest-scoring half – second half (-110)
  • Kansas City to score in every quarter – YES (+110)

Where Can I Find NFL Player Props?

You can bet on NFL team and player props at nearly every online and casino sportsbooks. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL player and team props in your area.  

 

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