Not even the frigid Rocky Mountain air may be able to cool down the red-hot Miami Dolphins, who bring a five-game winning streak into Week 11’s road trip to play the Denver Broncos.
The Dolphins, who have also picked up victories in six of their past seven contests, are 3.5-point road favorites, facing a Broncos squad spiraling off back-to-back losses and dropping three of their last four games. On top of that, Denver starting QB Drew Lock could be sidelined Sunday.
These are our best NFL free picks and predictions for Dolphins vs. Broncos on November 22.
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos Betting Preview
The forecast in Denver is calling for clear skies and game-time temperatures around 50 degrees, with light winds (5 mph). Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Dolphins: Myles Gaskin RB (Out).
Broncos: Shelby Harris DE (Out), Jake Butt TE (Out), Elijah Wilkinson G (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Broncos.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
If football is the ultimate team game, then Miami may be the ultimate team. Offense, defense, and special teams have all played a massive role in the team’s current success, with the latter two making a huge difference to NFL bettors, who have enjoyed a 7-2 ATS mark from the Fins this season.
The Dolphins defense has been very disruptive and overcame some solid offensive opposition during this streak. Miami has been especially stout against the pass, sitting eighth in pass defense DVOA at Football Outsiders while limiting opponents to just a 62.8 completion percentage. That ball-hawking defense has also produced 15 takeaways and faces a Denver attack plagued with turnover troubles.
The Broncos lead the NFL in giveaways at 21, with 16 of those crucial errors coming via interception. Quarterback Drew Lock, who could miss Week 11 with injured ribs, has struggled to put a full four-quarter effort together and is coming off a dismal performance against Las Vegas, completing just 23 of his 47 throws and getting picked off four times. In his last five showings, Lock has a TD-to-INT count of six to 10.
Defensively, Denver is also a mess. The Broncos used to rely on their stop unit to keep them in games, but they’ve poured points during the past month, allowing an average of 36 points against over the past four games.
Miami’s offense and rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa aren’t exactly lighting it up – averaging just 245.7 yards since he took over the starting job – but aren’t hurting the team either. Tua has passed for five touchdowns with no interceptions and keeps defenses honest with his ability to break off crucial runs.
PREDICTION: Miami -3.5 (-110)
The Dolphins run one of the slowest paces in the NFL, calling plays every 29.30 seconds, and average just 4.6 yards per offensive play with Tagovailoa taking snaps. The Broncos have been blitz-happy the past month and will likely look to frazzle the first-year passer, which could mean plenty of handoffs from Miami.
Running back Salvon Ahmed had a big day in Week 10, and fellow rusher Matt Breida could return to bolster this ground game, which has seen the ball handed off on almost 51 percent of snaps since Tua took over (compared to only 44 percent in the six games prior).
Denver will likely take to the turf as well, trying to exploit a Dolphins defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry and ranked 29th in run defense DVOA. The Broncos hand off on just 38 percent of their plays but could go more conservative, especially if Lock is out of action and backups are taking snaps.
With all those handoffs, we like this one to stay below the number, which happens to be the lowest Over/Under on the board in Week 11.
PREDICTION: Under 45 (-110)
Team Prop Pick
With the way this Miami team is playing across the board, you have to throw some action on a defense or special teams touchdown.
During this five-game run, the Dolphins have scored two fumble recovery touchdowns, a punt return TD, blocked a punt, forced 10 fumbles, recovered five of those, and snagged six interceptions.
As mentioned, no team turns the ball over more than the Broncos (21 on the season) and they’ve had one punt blocked already this year, versus Tampa Bay in Week 3. And should Denver somehow find paydirt by way of the defense or special teams, this prop cashes all the same.
PREDICTION: Defense or special teams TD +200
Dolphins vs Broncos Betting Card
- Miami -3.5 (-110)
- Under 45 (-110)
- Defense or special teams TD +200
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