Two of the NFL’s most promising young quarterbacks will take center stage on Thursday Night Football as Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers host Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders.
Green Bay enters as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 48, but my Commanders vs. Packers predictions expect one of Washington’s rising stars to make a major impact and fill up the stat sheet.
Let's dive into my NFL picks for Thursday, September 11.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, with the game airing on Prime Video.
Commanders vs Packers prediction
Commanders vs Packers Best bet: Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 receptions (-118)
Make no mistake about it, a healthy Deebo Samuel is still one of the top weapons in the NFL.
This was on full display last week as he was a major factor in both the passing and running games for the Washington Commanders in their beatdown of the Giants.
While his touchdown came on his lone carry – a 19-yard run in the fourth quarter – he was Jayden Daniels’ favorite target. Deebo was on the receiving end of 10 targets, leading to seven receptions and 77 yards.
While Daniels spread the ball around with eight separate players receiving a target, the 10 in Samuel's direction were five more than any of his teammates.
It's clear that Kliff Kingsbury plans to use Samuel to his full extent and will take creative measures to get him involved in the offense, as seen on the reverse sweep handoff that led to his TD.
The Green Bay Packers defense was strong in Week 1 against Detroit, but it did allow Jared Goff to complete 31 passes on 39 attempts.
Commanders vs Packers TNF same-game parlay
With lots of potential touches in both the passing and running games, don’t be shocked to see Deebo in the end zone. Meanwhile, this game sets up nicely for Josh Jacobs against a Commanders defense that allowed the second-most rushing yards per game last season.
Commanders vs Packers SGP
- Samuel Over 4.5 receptions
- Jacobs Over 77.5 rushing yards
- Samuel anytime TD
Our big-ticket SGP: Double the fun for Josh Jacobs
With a big day potentially on the way for Jacobs, let’s take him to get into the end zone twice. He had three multi-TD games last season.
Commanders vs Packers SGP
- Jacobs 2+ TDs
- Samuel anytime TD
- Jacobs Over 77.5 rushing yards
- Samuel Over 4.5 receptions
Commanders vs Packers game predictions
Commanders vs Packers moneyline prediction
I’m expecting a tight game between two teams that are expected to contend in the NFC. I like what Washington showed on the road as an underdog late last season and into the playoffs, where they put up wins in major spotlight games, so I think they’re worth a shot at +155 odds.
Commanders vs Packers spread prediction
That hook on the three-point spread is massive for the underdog in a game that could go down to the wire. I think Washington shows up to play and, at the very least, can keep this game close.
Commanders vs Packers Over/Under prediction
I like what I saw from each defense to open the season. It’s hard to judge off a one-week sample size, but each finished in the top four in yards per play allowed. As a result, I lean towards the Under.
Commanders vs Packers odds
- Spread: Washington +3.5 | Green Bay -3.5
- Moneyline: Washington +155 | Green Bay -185
- Over/Under: Over 48 | Under 48
Commanders vs Packers betting trend to know
The Washington Commanders have hit the moneyline in seven of their last 11 away games (+8.75 Units / 52% ROI).
Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Packers.
How to watch Commanders vs Packers
| Location | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date | Thursday, September 11, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime Video |
Learn how to live stream Commanders vs. Packers for free.
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Commanders vs Packers latest injuries
Austin Ekeler was used sparingly in Washington's Week 1 win over the Giants and was listed as limited earlier in the week due to a shoulder injury. The 30-year-old is expected to suit up tonight, but will likely see his usage lag behind that of rookie RB Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Commanders vs Packers weather
Players won't have to contend with the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field tonight. Late afternoon into early evening temps will hover in the mid-60s°F, dipping into the upper 50s to low 50s after dark. Expect mostly clear skies by kickoff, with some lingering clouds possible just beforehand. It will be dry with no rain in the forecast.
Those conditions favor a clean passing game and make footing more reliable, especially on the edges. Cooler air and clear skies generally help the ball carry a bit better, which should help the quarterbacks. Defense won’t have to contend with slick spots or soggy field issues, so speed and agility could play an even bigger role in yards after the catch and in open-field matchups.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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