Paris has been in the news all week, but hopefully this Sunday the players will light up our TV screens as the Steelers and Saints face off at the Stade de France.
Don't miss my Steelers vs. Saints anytime touchdown scorer predictions and catch our free NFL picks for Sunday's slate.
Best Steelers vs Saints anytime touchdown picks
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jaylen Warren |
47% |
 Tyler Shough |
18% |
| First TD: Pat Freiermuth |
7% |
| Long shot: Rico Dowdle |
25% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Steelers touchdown pick: Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren has had an incredible season. While he hasn’t found the end zone as often as he’d like, he’s been effective as a runner and in the passing game.
His hands are solid, but his ability to change direction in the open field makes him dangerous, and he’s averaged 5.5 yards per carry this season behind the Pittsburgh Steelers' offensive line.
I’m very bullish on him against a New Orleans Saints team that hasn’t just been bad against the run; they’ve been a total embarrassment. They’ve allowed more rushing yards to opposing running backs than anyone else and 12 touchdowns to RBs in just six games, the most in the NFL.
Saints touchdown pick: Tyler Shough
With Travis Etienne on the sidelines, the Saints are running a full running back committee with Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller, and CJ Donaldson all taking turns carrying the ball.
Despite taking 20 carries last week, Miller was inefficient but still ranked higher than his fellow running backs.
It’s no surprise we saw the call for Tyler Shough to go for the QB sneak inside the five. That was his second rushing touchdown of the season, and the data shows Shough has had four carries inside the five-yard line this season.
That’s as many as Miller, whom Shough has outscored on those carries, and more than Kamara and Donaldson combined. Shough is the value play if the team gets near the goal line.
First touchdown scorer pick: Pat Freiermuth
Aaron Rodgers loves using his tight ends in the red zone, and Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington each have five RZ targets this season. That puts them tied for second behind Germie Bernard, but after the rookie's breakout, I expect him to get more attention.
The two tight ends lead the team in targets inside the five-yard line.
When it comes to picking a scorer, I want Freiermuth; he’s run 185 routes this season, a substantial increase on Washington’s 116.
He’s scored four TDs this season and has found the endzone in 50% of his games. While National Tight End Day is something of a joke, the past two seasons have seen a combined 29 TE touchdowns, a slight bump over the average number of TE TDs on a Sunday slate.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Rico Dowdle
Last week, Rico Dowdle returned from injury, and he was clearly the second-string running back, with Warren playing 74% of the snaps and getting 14 carries to Dowdle’s seven.
However, both got four targets, and Dowdle was more efficient on the ground.
The team will continue to use Warren as their lead back; he’s earned that with his performances this season, but we’ll still see plenty of Dowdle.
With the Saints defense giving up two touchdowns per game to running backs and 16 mph winds, I want to back the second-choice RB to find the endzone, too.
Steelers vs Saints touchdown combo
Jaylen Warren
Rico Dowdle
I'm backing both Steelers running backs. The wind might make it tough for Rodgers to throw, while the Saints have allowed an average of two touchdowns per game to opposing running backs this season.
- Picks: 8-24, -1.00 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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