The last weekend of college football before October is loaded with AP Top 25 matchups - there are more this Saturday than in the first three weeks of the season combined.
With six games featuring ranked teams going toe-to-toe, including the Oregon vs. USC rivalry, my Week 4 college football Top 25 predictions and college football picks are full of can't-miss matchups.
But no game is bigger than the one featuring the Heisman favorite as a road underdog.
College football Top 25 predictions & watchability ratings: Week 4
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Watch Rating |
Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 Ole Missvs.  Florida |
5/5 | -3.5 ⚪ |
46% |
 Texasvs.  Tennessee |
5/5 | +5.5 🟡 |
53% |
 Oregonvs.  USC |
5/5 | -2.5 🟡 |
55% |
 Missourivs.  Mississippi State |
4/5 | +6.5 🟡 |
50% |
 Iowavs.  Michigan |
4/5 | +5.5 🟢 |
51% |
 Texas A&Mvs.  LSU |
4/5 | -8.5 🟡 |
51% |
 Oklahomavs.  Georgia |
4/5 | -13.5 🟡 |
52% |
 South Carolinavs.  Alabama |
3/5 | -11.5 ⚪ |
52% |
 Wisconsinvs.  Penn State |
3/5 | -9.5 🟢 |
52% |
 Wake Forestvs.  Louisville |
3/5 | +13.5 🟡 |
54% |
 Utahvs.  Iowa State |
3/5 | -7.5 🟢 |
51% |
 Northwesternvs.  Indiana |
2/5 | -20.5 🟡 |
53% |
 Illinoisvs.  Ohio State |
2/5 | -27.5 ⚪ |
47% |
 Notre Damevs.  Purdue |
2/5 | -27.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Central Michiganvs.  Miami |
1/5 | +42.5 🟡 |
54% |
 Sam Houston vs.  Texas Tech |
1/5 | -33.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Houstonvs.  Georgia Southern |
1/5 | -17.5 ⚪ |
50% |
 Missouri Statevs.  SMU |
1/5 | -34.5 ⚪ |
51% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Tier 1 watchability for Week 4 (must-watch)
Ole Miss (4) vs Florida (21)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Florida -3.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Florida (58%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 59.5 🟡
When told Florida is favored in this game against an Ole Miss team led by the Heisman Trophy odds favorite, Gators head coach Jon Sumrall said, "There's a lot of good drugs out there, huh?" Maybe it's surprising given that Trinidad Chambliss just led the Rebels to an upset win over his former coach Lane Kiffin, but it's not surprising if you've watched the Gators this season.
Florida is 2-0 ATS against FBS opponents and just hung 44 points on Auburn at Jordan-Hare behind a dominant showing from running back Jadan Baugh. Baugh leads the country in forced missed tackles (30) and rushing touchdowns (8), and will be a problem for an Ole Miss defense ranked 75th in EPA per rush. I added Baugh to my Heisman Hedge Fund this week.
But it's not just Baugh shining in Buster Faulkner's offense; the team ranks No. 1 nationally in available yards percentage (83.3%) and No. 3 in EPA per pass thanks to Aaron Philo. Philo is Top 10 in the country in QBR (88.6) after following Faulkner from Georgia Tech to Gainesville.
And for as impressive as Ole Miss' win over LSU was, the Rebels actually finished with a lower net success rate than the Tigers.
Will Chambliss really be able to put on the Superman cape against a third-ranked opponent in four weeks? I have my doubts, especially on the road, and I like Florida to cover -4.5 or better.
Texas (1) vs Tennessee (14)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | noon ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Tennessee +5.5 🟡
- ML pick: Texas (64%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 🟡
Everyone was too busy in Week 3 watching Lane Kiffin get shell-shocked by his former team to notice that Texas didn't look all that impressive against UTSA after its comeback win against Ohio State in Week 2.
The Longhorns failed to cover as a 30.5-point favorite against the Road Runners, due in large part to Arch Manning's poor play. Manning was frequently off target (63% adjusted completion percentage) and finished with one of the lowest QBRs of his career (30.7).
If he has a slow start against a Tennessee defense ranked 31st in EPA per pass, it will allow the Volunteers to hang around with their high-powered offense. Josh Heupel's offense is ranked No. 3 by SP+ and is fourth nationally in EPA per rush, 19th in available yards percentage (61.8%), and 20th in offensive success rate (51.4%).
Freshman phenom Faizon Brandon has played up to his five-star billing, sitting 22nd in QBR (79.0), and he has no shortage of talent around him. The Vols have one of the top offensive lines in the country and a star running back in DeSean Bishop.
This is also Texas' first road game of the season, and Knoxville isn't an easy place to play, which is why the Vols are in play for me at +4.5 or better. That's without mentioning the Manning family ties to Tennessee potentially adding more pressure.
Oregon (20) vs USC (12)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
- ATS pick: Oregon -2.5 🟡
- ML pick: Oregon (60%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 62.5 ⚪
This old Pac-12 rivalry was long dominated by USC, but times have changed.
For decades, the Trojans and their plethora of All-Americans would go duck hunting against Oregon. That's no longer the case, thanks in part to Phil Knight's Nike money helping Oregon become a college football power. Now the Ducks own USC — Oregon has won six of the last seven matchups.
The hire of Lincoln Riley hasn't changed anything for USC in this rivalry (0-2 against the Ducks), and its defense remains a huge issue. The Trojans just gave up 35 points to a Rutgers team that lost to UMass and Boston College. The Gary Patterson experiment at defensive coordinator is worse than expected.
USC's defense ranks 98th in early-down EPA per play (Oregon's offense ranks 17th) and outside the Top 85 in both EPA per pass and rush. While the Ducks' loss to Oklahoma State killed their college football national championship odds, Oregon still has the offensive talent to toast the Trojans.
Dante Moore is one of the best QBs in college football, ranking sixth in TD passes (9), and he's expected to have star tight end Jamari Johnson back for this game. And while Jayden Maiava has USC's offense humming, the Trojans have yet to play a defense ranked higher than 46th by SP+; Oregon is ranked 12th. And he'll also likely be without his best wide receiver, Trent Mosley.
The Ducks can win a shootout, and I'd take Dan Lanning to cover -3.5 or better.
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Tier 2 watchability for Week 4 (worth watching)
Missouri (19) vs Mississippi State (24)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 7:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Missouri +6.5 🟡
- ML pick: Mississippi State (67%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 58.5 🟡
Without a doubt, Kamario Taylor has been right there with Chambliss as the most electric QB in the country. But for as impressive as Taylor has been, this is a shockingly large spread. I expected Mississippi State to be favored, but not by more than 4.5 points against Missouri.
Taylor is arguably the most talented player in college football; however, Missouri has a budding star of its own behind center. Austin Simmons, who was starting over Chambliss at Ole Miss last year before injury, has one of the best arms in the country and is Top 30 in QBR (75.8).
And while Taylor vs. Simmons (two potential future high draft picks) is the reason to tune in, Missouri's defense is the reason to back the Tigers to cover +5.5 or better. Missouri's defense has been a juggernaut, ranking No. 2 in EPA per pass, No. 5 in havoc rate (25.4%), and No. 10 in available yards percentage (29.6%).
This is the best defense Taylor has started against in his young career, and he's going to need to cover for his own defense, which ranks just 73rd in EPA per pass.
Iowa (17) vs Michigan (18)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
- ATS pick: Iowa +5.5 🟢
- ML pick: Michigan (66%) ⚪
- Over/Under pick: Under 38.5 🟡
To absolutely nobody's surprise, Iowa and Michigan have the lowest game total of any game featuring a Top 25 team this week. Both programs have questions at QB, and both have defenses ranked Top 12 by SP+.
But the play of former No. 1 recruit Bryce Underwood remains a huge problem for Kyle Whittingham. Underwood has double the turnover-worthy plays (6) than he does TD passes (3), and his adjusted completion percentage is just 66.1%.
Against an Iowa defense that's No. 1 in available yards percentage (16.7%), No. 3 in early-down EPA per play, and No. 5 in third/fourth down success (25.9%), Michigan's going to have a hard time scoring more than 20 points.
And though the Hawkeyes have offensive problems of their own, they once again have a top offensive line to lean on that features multiple All-Americans. Kirk Ferentz has made a career out of covering in these types of spots, and I like Iowa at +3.5 or better.
Texas A&M (23) vs LSU (10)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: LSU -8.5 🟡
- ML pick: LSU (76%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 🟡
Neither of these teams comported themselves all that well last week, but there are huge differences between losing to a team led by the Heisman favorite in one of the most hostile environments you'll see this college football season (and having the higher net success rate) and losing to Kentucky at home by double digits.
Texas A&M lost 10 players to the 2026 NFL Draft, seven of which played in the trenches. That's catching up to them now, and Marcel Reed isn't good enough to make up for it. Reed has five turnover-worthy plays, an adjusted completion percentage of 67.3%, and is 73rd in QBR (54.3).
The Aggies will struggle to score enough to cover in Death Valley on Saturday night. LSU's defense is Top 10 in havoc rate (22.3%), EPA per rush, and available yards percentage (26.5%).
Kiffin's team has the advantage on both of the lines, and as long as Sam Leavitt plays clean, LSU can win this game by double digits. I wouldn't put it past Lane to run up the score too, to try and make up for losing to his former team last week.
Oklahoma vs Georgia (2)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/Disney+
- ATS pick: Georgia -13.5 🟡
- ML pick: Georgia (84%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 44.5 🟡
It's gone from bad to worse for Oklahoma, whose fans were chanting "fire Arbuckle" after coordinator Ben Arbuckle's offense managed just 299 yards and 14 points last week against New Mexico. And while the Lobos have one of the best defenses in the Group of Six, Georgia's is on another planet.
Kirby Smart and Glenn Schumann's defense is ranked No. 3 by SP+ and No. 11 in available yards percentage (29.6%). And Sooners QB John Mateer has been borderline unplayable. He has the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate in the SEC (4.4%) and the lowest adjusted completion percentage in the conference (65.3%).
Oklahoma is also dealing with major injuries, including being down left tackle Michael Fasusi and potentially without star defensive tackle David Stone, who suffered a knee injury in practice this week. If Stone isn't out there, OU's defense could be in trouble.
Georgia's offense is No. 3 in success rate (57.7%), and Gunner Stockton leads the country in QBR (94.8). However, I only like Georgia to cover -13.5 or better.
Tier 3 watchability for Week 4 (interesting)
South Carolina vs Alabama (8)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Alabama -11.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Alabama (81%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 53.5 🟢
It's getting late early for Shane Beamer in Columbia. South Carolina is already shaping up to be one of the biggest disappointments of the season, despite having several freaks with first-round potential.
One of those freaks is QB LaNorris Sellers, who doesn't look any better with new offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. The Gamecocks blew a 16-0 lead at home last week against Mississippi State, and Sellers accounted for four turnover-worthy plays in the process.
Alabama's defense is better than Mississippi State's, ranking ninth in EPA per rush and 14th in available yards percentage (31.5%). The pass-rush duo of Yhonzae Pierre and Devan Thompkins (21 combined pressures) should tee off on Sellers, who held the ball for 3.14 seconds on average last week.
And after a performance in which he had the third-best QBR of Week 3 (96.2), Keelon Russell shouldn't have a problem moving the ball against a South Carolina defense that's 96th in third/fourth down success (50%).
Wisconsin vs Penn State (13)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 5 p.m. ET | Peacock
- ATS pick: Penn State -9.5 🟢
- ML pick: Penn State (78%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 44.5 ⚪
Even with the tough news that star wide receiver Koby Howard is out for the foreseeable future, Penn State shouldn't have too many issues against Wisconsin.
The Badgers failed to cover as a 21.5-point underdog in a neutral-site game against their only Power Four opponent thus far (Notre Dame). And Penn State's continuity, with so many key starters being from Iowa State, has helped the Nittany Lions hit the ground running in Matt Campbell's first season.
Penn State is No. 2 nationally in available yards percentage on defense (24.4%) and No. 12 on offense (64.2%). Nittany Lions QB Rocco Becht is also the only passer in the country with a big-time throw rate of 9+% and an adjusted completion percentage of 80+%.
This line should be bigger because I would take Penn State to cover up to -12.5.
Wake Forest vs Louisville (16)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | noon ET | ESPN/Disney+
- ATS pick: Wake Forest +13.5 🟡
- ML pick: Louisville (80%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 57.5 🟡
The way Wake Forest came back from down 31-7 against Miami to cover in a 33-20 loss speaks to how hard the Demon Deacons play. It also speaks to how underrated their two best offensive players are, Gio Lopez and Carlos Hernandez.
Hernandez is tied with Jeremiah Smith for the most explosive plays among wide receivers this season (11), and Lopez is second among all QBs in explosive plays (22). They should push a Louisville defense that's 84th in EPA per pass and 114th in early-down EPA.
Backing Wake is contingent on Lopez playing, who is questionable for the game (and I'd only take the Demon Deacons to cover -13.5 or better). Assuming he plays, plenty of points will be scored in this matchup, with both offenses ranking Top 26 in EPA per pass and EPA per rush.
Utah (15) vs Iowa State
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Utah -7.5 🟢
- ML pick: Utah (75%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 48.5 ⚪
Utah hasn't missed a beat since Morgan Scalley took over as the full-time head coach. The Utes have been a force and look like a legitimate College Football Playoff contender in the Big 12, while Iowa State's lack of offense could be its death knell in Year 1 under Jimmy Rogers.
With Utah's defense ranking Top 10 nationally in both EPA per pass and rush, Iowa State's offense may not crack 20 points. The Cyclones are ranked 81st on offense by SP+, and QB Jaylen Raynor has struggled.
And for as solid as the Cyclones' defense has been, it hasn't faced a QB as dynamic as Devon Dampier. Dampier is 19th in QBR (80.6) and has the Utes ranked Top 10 in offensive explosiveness (1.394). Given Utah's offensive advantage, I like them to cover up to -9.5.
Tier 4 watchability for Week 4 (blowout brewing)
Northwestern vs Indiana (5)
- Game info: Friday, Sept. 25 | 8 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Indiana -20.5 🟡
- ML pick: Indiana (93%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 🟡
Northwestern is coming off an impressive win against Colorado, but this is the Wildcats' first road game, and Chip Kelly's offense hasn't faced a defense anywhere near Indiana's - the Hoosiers are 21st in havoc rate (20.7%) and 20th in available yards percentage (34.5%).
Northwestern also hasn't seen an offense like Indiana's (ranked No. 7 by SP+). The passing attack has been cruising with Josh Hoover and Charlie Becker. Those two have IU ranked No. 2 nationally in EPA per pass. But I only like Indiana at -20.5 or better.
Illinois vs Ohio State (7)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | noon ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Ohio State -27.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Ohio State (96%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 53.5 🟡
Ohio State had a get-right game against Kent State last week after blowing the lead and losing to Texas in Week 2. Now, they should ride that momentum into a blowout win against an Illinois team that's struggled defensively.
The Fighting Illini's defense is ranked outside the Top 110 in available yards percentage (62.9%), EPA per pass, and early-down EPA per play. Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith have the Buckeyes ranked fifth on offense by SP+, and they should have no trouble scoring against a defense that allowed over 400 yards to UAB.
That said, I'd avoid the Buckeyes if this line gets any larger.
Ohio State tops Brad Powers' power rankings entering Week 4.
Notre Dame (3) vs Purdue
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 2 p.m. ET | Peacock
- ATS pick: Notre Dame -27.5 🟡
- ML pick: Notre Dame (95%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 58.5 ⚪
Purdue has clearly improved on offense this season, scoring 36+ points in each game, but its defense remains spectacularly ugly. The Boilermakers' defense ranks bottom three nationally (136th) in EPA per rush and available yards percentage (75.5%). Luckily, they're better against the pass and on early downs, ranking fourth-last nationally (135th) in EPA per pass and early-down EPA per play.
The reason Barry Odom's team has been able to cover is that it's only played teams with defenses ranked outside the Top 50 by SP+ ... Notre Dame is ranked sixth. The Fighting Irish also have one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country, led by CJ Carr, who's eighth in QBR (87.8).
Notre Dame might score 60, and I don't think Purdue will score more than 17. The Irish are in play up to -29.5 for me.
Tier 5 watchability for Week 4 (it's still football)
Central Michigan vs Miami (6)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 6:30 p.m. ET | CW
- ATS pick: Central Michigan +42.5 🟡
- ML pick: Miami (99%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 53.5 🟡
This has a little to do with how Miami looked down the stretch against Wake Forest last week, but a lot more to do with Central Michigan's style of play. The Chippewas run the ball every chance they get, averaging just 14.7 pass attempts per game vs. 44.3 rush attempts.
That should help CMU shorten the game and keep Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney off the field enough to cover +42.5 or better.
Sam Houston vs Texas Tech (11)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | noon ET | TNT
- ATS pick: Texas Tech -33.5 🟡
- ML pick: Texas Tech (98%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 55.5 ⚪
Sam Houston is 3-0 ATS, and I would have taken the Bearkats to cover if they didn't see so much early action that it moved the spread from 35.5 to 33.5. But I'll take Texas Tech to cover 33.5 with its defense poised to shut down a Sam Houston team that's 134th in EPA per rush.
Plus, Will Hammond really found his stride in the Week 3 win over Houston, finishing with a QBR of 78.3.
Houston (25) vs Georgia Southern
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 4 p.m. ET | ESPNU
- ATS pick: Houston -17.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Houston (89%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 56.5 🟢
Georgia Southern is getting a little more respect than I expected for covering against Clemson in Week 2 (and for having a rare home game against a Power Four opponent). But the Eagles just blew a 17-0 lead against Jacksonville State last week and lost 31-27. That's got Clay Helton's seat heating up, and why I like Houston to cover -17.5 or better.
Willie Fritz will have the Georgia Southern faithful reminiscing about the good old days when he takes his Houston program into Statesboro against his former team. Fritz's Cougars are 14th nationally in available yards percentage (63.5%) and likely eager to take out last week's heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech on a struggling G6 team.
Missouri State vs SMU (22)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 9 p.m. ET | ACC Network
- ATS pick: SMU -34.5 ⚪
- ML pick: SMU (98%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 59.5 🟡
Missouri State might not beat an FBS team this year; it's that bad for the Bears in Year 1 under Casey Woods. And they certainly won't be keeping things close against SMU, with the Mustangs ranked 21st by SP+ and Missouri State sitting 126th in available yards percentage (66.8%). But if this spread gets bigger than -34.5, I'd have a hard time taking SMU.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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